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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/27/24
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Steve Adams
8:17
Good morning, all! I'll get started at 1pm CT, like usual, but feel free to start asking questions earlier than that if you prefer!
1:01
Good afternoon! Let's get underway
Lance
1:01
Of the remaining free agents of notable impact (Snell, Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and JD Martinez), who would you believe ends up with a one year below market deal?
Steve Adams
1:03
JDM was only ever likely to sign a two-year deal, and I think  it's pretty likely he's down to one year at this point. Two wouldn't stun me still, but at this point in the offseason I'd imagine one year is the strong likelihood.

I don't think any of the others will take one year, but I can see short-term and opt outs for any of them
Big joe
1:03
Hey who would you rather have Taylor or Margot.?
Steve Adams
1:05
They're reasonably comparable players as RHH outfielders who can handle all three spots at an above-average to plus level. Taylor has more speed and power but twice as many strikeouts. Margot has better bat-to-ball skills and more OBP.

I assume Taylor's going to cost more than the year and $4MM for which the Twins acquired Margot, so I'd probably lean toward him on price alone. I'd probably lean that way anyhow, honestly, as the enormous K% and miserable OBP give MAT a lower floor.
White Sox just announced RHP Jesse Scholtens will undergo Tommy John surgery
1:06
He's going on the 60-day IL to make room for Bailey Horn. The teams have announced that trade.
timmy
1:06
I don't understand how the Giants aren't going to sign one of Snell or Montgomery when their rotation is Webb, a converted reliever, a rookie, and now two other rookies who are currently injured. I don't really have a question I just feel like I'm going insane
Steve Adams
1:07
I 100% agree with you and wrote about it at length a few weeks back for our Front Office subscribers. That rotation is not the rotation of a team that's serious about competing in 2024.
Snellzilla
1:07
So much smoke to this Snell-Yankees thing ... gotta be some fire, right?
Steve Adams
1:09
It seems clear the Yankees would like to find a creative way to add him. I don't think it's all that realistic unless Hal Steinbrenner basically just says F it and drops a mountain of cash though. The 110% tax on a huge AAV is substantial, as are the draft picks and international money the Yankees would need to punt. And as I wrote this morning, signing Snell puts them on the hook for more than $100MM in guarantees as far out as the 2029 season. Unless they go short-term, in which case Snell is going to cost them upwards of $70-85MM this season after factoring in the taxes -- and then he's very likely want the opportunity to go right back to free agency next winter.
Ray
1:09
With Angels being linked to Snell and making the most sense from a pitching perspective, does Snell prefer to sign with the Yankees and is that why nothing has finalized with him and the Angels given the relationship that Arte and Boras have.
Steve Adams
1:12
I don't think the Moreno/Boras relationship can be used as an excuse so much these days after they signed Anthony Rendon for nearly a quarter billion dollars. Moreno has never been willing to go long term on a pitcher, for whatever reason. The Angels' most recent multi-year deals for free agent SPs are Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM last winter), Joe Blanton (two years, $15MM, back in 2012) and C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5MM back in 2011)
1:13
It's not even like the CJ Wilson deal hurt them badly. He pitched 774 2/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball over four seasons and missed another due to injury. He was generally good for them.
Fred Manrique
1:13
Who is the A's competition for worst team in the league this year? Colorado perhaps?
Steve Adams
1:15
Rockies, yeah. Nationals look really rough to me as well. That pitching looks so thin. Mike Rizzo's comments about not being able to find someone who could impact them were ... well, they were something. I assume ownership just didn't greenlight any spending, but it's a rough look nonetheless, and the depth behind an already bad top five isn't good.
Rickeo
1:15
do you receive my messages or are my questions that bad?
Steve Adams
1:15
I get a couple thousand questions per chat probably.
Michael
1:15
Where do you see Eddie Rosario signing?
Steve Adams
1:17
Padres could use a cheap OF. Maybe the Jays, who are generally lacking LH bats? Rockies? At this point he could be a minor league deal, which could place him just about anywhere.
Joe
1:17
With the state of the Angels, what is the point of the Angels giving Snell or Montgomery an opt out after year one?  “We’ll suck less” is not much of a selling point for the upcoming season.
Steve Adams
1:18
I think the Angels should just sign one of them long-term and forgo the opt outs.
Ted
1:18
What's stopping the Pirates from signing a Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger?
Steve Adams
1:18
Presumably just ownership's willingness (or lack thereof) to spend the money on it.
Cute Lady
1:20
Can Garrett Crochet be a starter, or is he destined to be a closer?
Steve Adams
1:21
I lean toward a long-term role in the bullpen, but I said the same thing about Chris Sale at one point. I assume the Sox will give him a shot to stick in the rotation for at least a year, probably two, before considering a permanent move to relief.
JN
1:21
Why haven’t the Giants at least signed a Lorenzen/Clevinger type for depth?
Steve Adams
1:22
My summation of the entire Giants offseason would basically be the shrug emoji. I don't have a good answer and would love to hear Farhan Zaidi's honest explanation for why this is the rotation they're going with.
I do wonder if some guys are turned off by how many free agents have recently signed there as SPs and then been dumped into the hybrid SP/RP, bulk-innings-guy-following-an-opener role
1:23
Alex Wood talked about that in an interview with the SF Chronicle we'll link to later today, but basically said he was surprised and frustrated to miss 3-4 weeks with a hamstring strain, come back and then be asked "Hey are you good for an inning in the 'pen tonight?"
1:24
That's speculation on my part, but I imagine it's something that shorter-term free agents are going to consider when looking there
Randy
1:24
Will the Cubs swing a trade for Emmanuel Classe prior to the start  of the regular season?
Steve Adams
1:24
I don't think Clase will be traded, period.
Compo
1:24
Do you get annoyed when people correct grammar in your articles? Or do you appreciate the assist?
Steve Adams
1:26
I never mind corrections, especially if people are polite about it. I also don't really mind/care when they're insulting, haha -- been doing this long enough that I've grown numb to anonymous jabs from the internet -- but in general, it's always nice when people are respectful.
MLB fan
1:27
Gotta think if Urashela is healthy he plays 3rd most everyday?
Steve Adams
1:27
Should play there pretty regularly, yeah -- at least until Jace Jung really starts to force the issue. Love that deal for the Tigers. Total bargain on a good and generally underrated player.
Immaculate Eichelberger
1:28
Padres 0% chance of resigning Snell?
Steve Adams
1:31
I don't think 0%, no. They're $21MM-ish away from the luxury tax, though, so if they want to stay under that it'd need to be a weird contract. Nine years and $189MM would keep them under the line and get Snell close to 200.

If he's intent on getting $30MM+ and focused on AAV, though, then it's harder to see both in terms of present-day payroll in '24 and in luxury tax ramifications.
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