JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/20/24

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/20/24

Steve Adams

8:21

Good morning and happy spring training -- things are in full swing, though you wouldn't know it from looking at the remainder of the free agent market, ha. We'll get rolling at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions in advance. Looking forward to it!

12:59

And we're off!

Cleveland SS

12:59

Which Cleveland Infielder will emerge as the starting SS on Opening Day

Steve Adams

12:59

Brayan Rocchio would get my vote

Ebbets Field

12:59

Odds Stephenson is the Angels closer before the end of April?

Steve Adams

1:00

Carlos Estevez is good. I'd assume he gets more than a month's leash unless he gets injured or is just unexpectedly a disaster for the first few weeks.

Jay

1:00

Do you think Alonso signs before fa?

Steve Adams

1:01

No, I think his free agency will parallel that of Aaron Judge. Franchise cornerstone hits the market, sees what's out there, and his longtime team matches to keep him in NY long-term.

Cashman

1:01

How likely am I to jump into a contract for one of the big 2 SP remaining? I know we could use another ace to slot next to Cole, and we want to make sure Soto actually wants to resign with us next year (and a World Series would go a long way in helping). If so, is it Snell or Monty I should shoot for? Stuff/inconsistency vs consistency/comfortable in NY

John Middleton

1:01

Should I move forward with an offer for Bellinger or Snell/Montgomery? CF and the back end of my rotation are the clear weak spots on my roster and I'm still prepared to spend stupid money!

Steve Adams

1:02

I don't love the Yankees or Phillies for any of the remaining free agents. I won't say it can't/won't happen, because both obviously have the money, but the Yankees a third-time luxury payor who are in the fourth tier of penalty. Anyone they sign comes with a 110% tax. So signing Snell or Monty at a $25-30MM AAV comes with $27.5MM to $33MM of taxes for them -- and that's on top of whatever salary the player is paid.

1:03

The Phillies aren't quite so far into tax territory, but they're pretty deep into it themselves

1:04

I took a look at what signing one of those guys would look like for the Phillies (and every other luxury team) when running through Cody Bellinger's market last week. Different player, but the tax implications are pretty much the same:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/cody-bellinger-rumors-short-ter...

Ben Affleck

1:04

Any news on the Jarren Duran trade front? I know Sox are asking for a lot and that’s probably stalled things, especially with Pads signing Profar.

Steve Adams

1:06

I think fans tend to get pretty excited whenever there's a report that a team showed interest in a particular player. In this instance, there was never any indication that talks were serious or particularly close. The Padres had two OFs on their 40-man roster for much of the winter and were trying to cut payroll by some $50MM. Them inquiring on pre-arb outfielders is only natural. I'd imagine Duran was one of a couple dozen guys they kicked the tires on, but I don't think there's much reason to believe that A) They were ever all that close on getting Duran, B) That the Red Sox are anxious to move him, or C) That the Profar acquisition impacts their pursuits of outfield help.

1:07

They more or less signed Profar for the minimum. Pushing him to a bench role when they get someone better should absolutely be part of the plan.

Hoof hearted

1:07

Do these chats solo? any asst combing thru the questions for you?

Steve Adams

1:07

Just me

Scott

1:07

Should Angels who are 49 mil. under first cap sign Bellinger and Montgomery to short 3 year deals for roughly 22 mil.average with more money in first year with opt outs

Steve Adams

1:08

I wouldn't presume either Bellinger or Montgomery is amenable to signing for 3/66 with an opt out. If they were willing to do that, they'd be signed. A huge portion of the league would be all over that for either player.

Sf giants fan

1:09

Are the giants signing two of the boras four? Feels like it

Steve Adams

1:09

If they don't sign at least one, I'll be pretty surprised. Two seems plausible for them in a way that it does not for a lot of other teams in and around the market for these guys, but I wouldn't necessarily get your hopes up for it.

M’s Fan

1:10

Point blank. Do you think the Mariners are a better team now than they were when last year began?

Steve Adams

1:10

In the sense that they'll get full seasons out of Miller and Woo, sure. I don't think the offense is demonstrably worse, either. I liked both the Polanco and Garver pickups.

DIV-2 2Bman

1:11

Clase to LA, they still need more for their bullpen. He's worth the 3-4 prospects on that contract.

Steve Adams

1:11

I don't think I agree that the 'pen is a dire need for them, and I don't expect Clase to be traded at this point, whether to L.A. or another club

John

1:12

Does the Corbin Burnes trade indicate the team will be more aggressive at the deadline this July?

Steve Adams

1:15

Which team? I think the Brewers have consistently shown they'll be open to making splashy trades even if they're not especially popular.

For the Orioles, I can't get behind the notion that one trade signals a major philosophical shift. They still need more SP help, and that was true even before Bradish's injury. I'd have loved to see them get Montgomery or Cease in addition to Burnes, then go Burnes-Monty-Bradish-GrayRod-??? to begin the season. Really, they had the resources to sign Monty AND trade for Cease/Luzardo.

I think the front office still feels pretty risk-averse. You've got Burnes for one year and that's likely it. I'd be working harder to surround him with more -- especially now that Bradish is hurting.

Guest

1:16

With videos and reports that Sal Frelick is going to see some time in the infield and with Joey Ortiz being acquired in the Burnes deal, do you believe that the Brewers are completely done this off-season and would not be open to signing Matt Chapman to a one year prove it deal.

Steve Adams

1:16

I think if Matt Chapman were open to a one-year deal, he'd have been signed awhile ago.

Pauly Walnuts

1:16

Do the Tigers win the Central in ‘24

Steve Adams

1:16

I still have the Twins taking that division, but the Tigers are improved over last year

Angels Fan

1:17

What is your take on Rendon’s comments about baseball not being a top priority? I’m sure the Angels aren’t happy with him saying the things he said on the first day of Spring training. I can’t help but wonder if his attitude towards baseball is to blame for his injuries since maybe he’s not putting in the work needed to stay healthy and in shape the older he gets? Especially after all the drama last year with the injuries and the different accounts given by him and the Angels as to exactly what the injury was.

Steve Adams

1:19

I don't take Rendon saying his family and his faith are larger life priorities than him as any kind of indication that he's not putting in the work. He's made comments like this before, with the Nats, when he was a perennial MVP candidate. I think it rubs fans the wrong way because he's being paid so much and there's so many who'd kill to be in his spot -- but he was asked about something and answered candidly/honestly rather than speaking in tropes. I wish more players and execs would be willing to have that type of candor

1:20

Kevin Frandsen, a former Rendon teammate, talked about it on MLB Network Radio this morning (or maybe yesterday, can't recall now, but you can find the clip on social media) and basically said this has always been Rendon.

87, 91 Champs

1:22

Any news on a upgrade in starting staff for Twins? Like what they have done in the pen, but starters not close to last year's staff.

Steve Adams

1:25

Twins are far enough away from the top end of their reported target payroll range and have enough other movable salary (Kyle Farmer, mostly) that they'll probably stick in my "dark horse" category for one of the remaining SP. But their front office also hasn't been all that keen on long-term deals for SP outside of reported five-year offers to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler during their respective free agencies. They extended Pablo Lopez, but he was 27 at the time of that deal -- not 31 like Snell/Montgomery.

I have a hard time seeing Snell drop to the point where the Twins jump in, as I just don't think he's going to go the short-term three years/opt-out route. If Montgomery comes down into the five-year range at 120 or less .... I can see that.

Signing Michael Lorenzen still feels more likely though.

Tim Anderson vs Amed Rosario

1:25

In this heavyweight matchup, who gets the championship title to be the Marlins everyday SS? And who do you like out of these two?

Steve Adams

1:26

Who's the Marlins' opening day shortstop?

Tim Anderson (47% | 245 votes)

Amed Rosario (19.8% | 103 votes)

In-house option (Jon Berti, Jacob Amaya, etc.) (26.3% | 137 votes)

A different external option (6.9% | 36 votes)

Total Votes: 521

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