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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 2/13/14
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Steve Adams
8:11
'Morning all! We'll get this started at 1pm CT, like usual, but feel free to fire off some early questions if you like! Looking forward to another chat!
12:58
And now good afternoon! Let's get underway
Curious
12:58
Do you think Jed Hoyer is more or less likely to maka major signing and/or trade before the end of March?
Compo
12:58
If the Cubs don't get Bellinger, do you think they shift to Chapman or just try to compete with what they have and wait for the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
12:58
Will run these together since I think they're related
1:00
I do think there's a pretty decent chance the Cubs come away with either Chapman or Bellinger. The former is the cleaner fit, but I also think Bellinger can fit in and coexist on the roster even with the Cubs wanting to keep playing time clear for their top CF prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong. We don't know how PCA and Michael Busch will handle substantial roles in the majors yet. The Cubs could rotate Bellinger, Suzuki and Happ through the OF and designated hitter. That probably cuts into Chris Morel's playing time somewhat, but he's on hand for more ABs at multiple positions in the event of injuries. (I'm also more bearish on Morel, in general, than a lot of Cubs fans -- sorry)
1:01
I'd look at re-signing Bellinger more as coming at the expense of Patrick Wisdom or Miles Mastrobuoni, which would be fine
1:02
So yeah, I think there's a pretty real chance there's one more move of note, especially if Bellinger is willing to go the Correa route and go short-term with multiple opt-outs. Or if Chapman just takes like ... 4/100, which would be a nice deal for the Cubs (or anyone else, for that matter, but I digress)
Farhan
1:02
Do I think there’s still room to sign Chapman and/or Montgomery after signing Soler?
Steve Adams
1:02
Definitely. I wrote as much in our post on the Giants and Soler agreeing to a three-year deal.
Guest
1:03
Which team is your pick for worst record in 2024 and why?
Steve Adams
1:04
Probably the Rockies. They don't have a single above-average starting pitcher, the depth is weak, and the bullpen might look even shakier. I just can't see a path to them avoiding 100 losses. The A's are up there (er... down there?) but they've at least added some viable pitching. A rotation with Paul Blackburn, JP Sears, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling isn't great by any means, but compare that to Kyle Freeland, Cal Quantrill, Dakota Hudson, Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner (pitching at Coors) -- and I'd take the Oakland group pretty handily.
Bucco fan
1:05
Does a signing of Clevinger, Ryu, or Lorenzen move the needle in terms of the Bucs contending in their division?
Steve Adams
1:07
It helps, sure. I think the NL Central is pretty wide open but Pittsburgh is the longest shot. That said, with some progress from a couple young players (Henry Davis most notably), an early-summer arrival from Paul Skenes, etc. -- the outlook could change. They need more breaks in their favor than the rest of the division, but I like Suwinski, Hayes, Reynolds, Keller, Cruz and Bednar -- the bullpen as a whole is probably underrated.
1:08
Even with, say, Lorenzen -- I'd probably still pick the Bucs for fifth in the division... but they'd be closer to the rest of the bunch and less reliant on good fortune in terms of player development and health.
Peter
1:08
Snell has to be looking at less than $150 M now, right?
Steve Adams
1:08
I doubt it
1:09
Just because that's the only offer that's been leaked doesn't mean it's the only one he's received, and a guy coming off a second Cy Young just probably isn't going to take some sweetheart deal that falls miles below expectation. There'll be a bunch of news on pitcher injuries coming in the next week-plus as well, which is only going to further alter the landscape.
Cards fan
1:09
Do you guys think the starters ERA will be over or under 4.00?
Steve Adams
1:11
They were over 5.00 last year and a significant portion of their solution was to sign Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. I think a group number in the low-4.00s is a best-case scenario, but I just don't like the St. Louis rotation all that much and will easily take the over on 3.99.
Schally Walnuts
1:11
Any chatter on Guards adding a veteran bat like JD Martinez?
Steve Adams
1:13
I can't imagine the Guardians paying that type of salary, even on a one-year deal. They were just burned by Josh Bell and are still paying dead money to Jean Segura, whom they acquired to shed the rest of the Bell deal. Their projected payroll is already slightly higher than last year's as well. Even if JDM signs for a year in the $12-15MM range, I feel like that's just beyond where Cleveland would be willing to go.
JReid19336
1:13
Do the Giants trade Conforto or JD Davis now?
Steve Adams
1:15
I don't see anyone taking on that Conforto deal unless they eat a good portion of the salary. Trading Davis is more feasible if they also add Matt Chapman. Right now, there's probably room between 3B/1B/DH to keep him and make the most of the opportunity to use JDD, Soler, Flores, Slater, Murphy/Bailey, Estrada and others what should be an improved lineup against left-handed pitching.
MLBTR’s #4 fan
1:15
How would you personally rank Julio, Carroll, and Witt 1-3?
Steve Adams
1:17
The same way you listed them. That's blending their contracts and overall performance/outlook. I actually don't love the Witt deal for the Royals and think they took on a lot of downside to buy out three free agent years (still a fun outcome for KC fans, of course, and much better than waving goodbye when he hits six years of service in his mid-20s).
Cheese
1:18
It seems like the O's need another bullpen addition to be a true WS contender..should they be trying to trade for an RP addition?
Steve Adams
1:20
I think they need another rotation addition more than another bullpen addition. Baltimore's projected payroll is $95MM. It's wild to me that they're not all over Snell and Montgomery.

Maybe they are and are just good at keeping it close to the vest, but there's no team with a more obvious blend of available payroll space and need. Plus they only have Burnes for one year, so why stop at acquiring him?
Beer Noises
1:20
Any chance that Chapman or Snell take a 1 year deal (or similar Hoskins deal with opt outs) with the Brewers and try testing free agency next year?
Steve Adams
1:22
They're both 31. Snell is coming off his second Cy Young year. He's never going to have a better platform than he does right now. If he were to take a short-term deal, I think the only way would be if he did like three years at a record AAV with multiple opt-outs, but I just think he's still going to get paid.

Chapman is better suited maxing out, in my opinion, but Josh Donaldson got 4/92 beginning in his age-34 season, so there's at least precedent for a mid-30s 3B coming with a plus glove coming off a massive FA platform getting a long-term deal.
I wouldn't want to bank on that if I were him, though. Bellinger at 28 years old is the only one who really makes sense on that sort of shorter-term, Carlos Correa-esque deal
Sloth
1:24
A report has the Twins "still looking at starting pitching" but the rumored targets are the likes of Syndergaard and Lorenzen. I know their FO's recent strategy has prized depth and it's helped at times, but it's hard to see a volatile back-end starter like these guys really helping.

Do you see either a move like this happening, or a sneaky trade for a higher-upside SP target?
Steve Adams
1:26
I think Lorenzen would be a fine addition for them, albeit an unexciting one. Thor is a minor league deal guy to me at this point. Anyone giving him a big league deal is just willfully ignoring the past 3-4 years. He's been hurt, his velo is down, and he's pitched anywhere from pedestrian to poorly in four different organizations.

Adding Lorenzen deepens the staff, lessens the need to rely on Paddack (who just isn't making 25-30 starts this year with his injury history) and Varland. It's fine to me.

A trade for a higher-upside SP like Luzardo or someone of that ilk would be great, sure, but options are in short supply.
Preller
1:26
After what Profar did last year.....omg am I seriously resigning this guy?
Steve Adams
1:27
Find someone in life who loves you as much as AJ Preller loves Jurickson Profar. We should all be so lucky.
Braves fan
1:27
What kind of contract do you think max fried gets?  I hate to see him leave Atlanta
Steve Adams
1:27
More than Rodon (6/162). It depends on how the 2024 season plays out, of course, but something around Aaron Nola's $172MM seems feasible and a big year taking him to $200MM+ doesn't seem out of the question.
Scott Boras
1:28
Am I the root cause of Free Agency being so slow?
Steve Adams
1:28
No, but fans love a villain and Boras makes for a fun one I guess?
Snell / Montgomery/Bellinger
1:29
Do you think I take a 3 year from the Phillies if they offered?
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