You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/19/23
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
8:30
Good morning all! I'll get this started at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit a question ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
1:01
Looks like the Padres are on the verge of signing star NPB closer Yuki Matsui. Let's get this rolling -- plenty to talk about today!
kyle
1:01
Is Gavin Stone enough for Shane Bieber?
Duke
1:01
Does Cartaya-c  and a secondary prospect for Bieber-sp work for both LAD and Clev ?
Sleuth
1:01
Where will Shane Bieber be playing on OD? What hypothetical trade package could Cleveland get if they used him to clear Myles Straw's contract?
Steve Adams
1:01
All kinds of Bieber questions, as is typical so long as Cleveland keeps holding him, ha.
1:02
Stone or Cartaya alone both feel like too much for Bieber for me. He's more name value than actual trade value. Two months on the shelf with an elbow injury this past season, velo down 3 mph from his peak... Strikeout rate has literally halved.
And it's one year
Bieber still seems like a viable MLB starter, but he's a No. 3/4 type of guy to me -- not the ace he was in 2020.
1:03
As for using Bieber to dump the Straw contract... you'd be looking at Bieber's approximate $12.25MM salary plus the $19.25MM on the Straw contract. So you're talking $31.5MM... that's more than Bieber would get for one year on the market right now. I don't think you'd get much of any return at that point.
Upset Brewers Fan
1:04
Matsui to the padres, why?
Steve Adams
1:05
Presumably because they feel his asking price is short of what they project his on-field value to be. Padres aren't completely tearing everything down, even as they try to shed payroll. They're still going to try to compete next season; and if Matsui has success while the rest of the roster flounders, they can always make him available at the trade deadline or next winter.
MikeMo
1:05
Reds have spent 87 million this offseason but have still not acquired their biggest need, a top of the rotation arm. What's your grade for their offseason so far?
Steve Adams
1:08
I love the Candelaro signing. The Martinez one is an overpay to me but not egregious. I don't like giving him the opt-out after year one, and if that was a sticking point I'd have just looked elsewhere.

The Emilio Pagan deal is just baffling to me. You're guaranteeing $16MM to a guy who'll either have one good year and head back to the market or who'll tank and pick up that second year at $8MM.

Pagan entered the 2023 season with the highest HR/9 rate in *MLB history* for a guy with 250+ IP. He cut back a bit in 2023 and now only sits like sixth or seventh-highest all time. Putting that track record in MLB's most homer-friendly park is just ... I don't get it. Nor do I get feeling so strongly that he is the specific piece you need that you give him the opt out.
So... mixed bag? C? I don't know. I think Candelario will be one of the best moves of the winter and Pagan one of the worst. But the Candelario move is much larger in scale, so sure, let's go C+. They still need to add some starting pitching.
Guest
1:09
Do the Twins have a shot at signing Shota Imanaga?
Steve Adams
1:09
I don't think you'll see them heavily involved in that bidding, no.
Ben
1:09
Do the Royals target any more FA’s or work towards a trade? For a way too early prediction, with the Royals’ early dealings, where do they finish in the AL Central?
Steve Adams
1:11
They've improved this winter, but I doubt they're just done entirely now. And they shouldn't be. They won 56 games last year. They might be 10-12 games better with Wacha, Lugo, Renfroe, Smith, Stratton, etc., but they're still not postseason contenders by any stretch. They'll need a lot of development from in-house players for that long shot to play out, but if the goal is to meaningfully improve for 2024 (which seems to be the clear case), this slate of additions isn't enough.
Dan
1:12
For the love of god, what are the White Sox waiting for. Do they really think someone signing Yamamoto is going to dramatically increase the offer they receive?
Steve Adams
1:13
I don't think the White Sox care that fans are anxiously awaiting the details on a Cease trade, nor should they. The goal isn't to satisfy that anticipation, it's to get the best deal possible. There are probably teams in the Yamamoto bidding who'd balk at acquiring him and trading a significant prospect package to acquire Cease, yes. If they've been told by multiple potential trade partners "We'll circle back after Yamamoto signs" -- which is perfectly plausible -- there's little sense in rushing things.
F. Valdez
1:14
What team will I pitch for this season?
Steve Adams
1:15
I don't expect the Astros to actually move him, but pretty much every team in  MLB would pursue him if he were really going to change hands. Orioles, Reds, Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, etc. would all be in the mix
Mike
1:15
Rhys Hoskins. Who ya got, Cubs or the field?
Steve Adams
1:16
I'll almost always take the field, but sure the Cubs are a perfectly viable landing spot who've had meaningful talks with him and Scott Boras. Could also see the Mariners, Twins, D-backs and a bunch of others in though.
Jericho
1:16
Trey Mancini: MLB deal, MiLB deal, or retire?
Steve Adams
1:17
Minor league deal. I've seen nothing to suggest he plans to retire.
Braves fan
1:17
Does AA kick the tires on Montgomery? Not sure I'm ready to trade AJSS or Elder for a 2 year deal in Cease. The Braves are more than likely losing Fried to FA following the '24 season, so we'll need them AND Waldrop to fill out the rotation. With the current rotation, the Braves won't make it out of their first playoff series. Gotta improve without compromising '25 and forward.
Steve Adams
1:20
Nothing in Anthopoulos' history suggests he'd pay the type of money Jordan Montgomery is likely to command. And Atlanta's weird slate of bad-contract acquisitions has them in the second luxury tier. If you predict a $25MM-ish annual value for Montgomery, they'd be paying more than $15MM in taxes to sign him.
So if you talk an evenly distributed deal, that'd be $40MMish in year one of a likely six-year deal? I don't see them doing that, no.
Gunner
1:22
Why did Martin Perez sign for only one year at less than half what he made last year?  I am happy my Buccos got him, but worried I am missing something?
Steve Adams
1:23
Because the $19MM+ was an overpay that the Rangers knew they were risking when they made him a qualifying offer. Perez bet on himself, hoping to replicate or approximate his 2022 season and get a much larger deal this winter. It didn't happen. He basically turned back into the garden variety fourth/fifth starter he's generally been. And the Bucs signed him for fourth/fifth starter money.
1:24
He's a fine source of bulk innings, the upside is just minimal. But 150-175 innings and a mid-4.00s ERA has value, especially for a Pirates team that just desperately needs innings.
John
1:25
Which group of “extras” are the orioles most likely to deal from: big league OF (Mullins, hays, Santander); mlb if depth (Urias, Mateo) or their IF prospect depth (Mayo, Ortiz, norby)
Steve Adams
1:27
Mullins doesn't belong in the same category as any of them. He's their center fielder and far less likely to be moved. I don't think they'd be eager to move either Santander or Hays, but it always depends on the offer. Neither seems likely to get a controllable SP though, so I think both are likelier to stay put.

Mayo/Ortiz/Norby/Westburg -- there's just so much infield talent and depth that I think that's the likeliest bucket. The plan is for Henderson and Holliday to hold down the left side of the infield long term, but things are more fluid on the right side of the second base bag, it seems like.
David
1:28
Any buzz at all about the Mets' plans if they don't land Yamamoto?  Were you surprised to see them not be in in guys like Maeda and ERod when they need to fill out the rotation, and guys like that will still be solid mid-back end guys for 2025.
Steve Adams
1:29
Not really surprised they weren't on E-Rod, no. I thought they'd be more aggressive on SP help in general, but I can't blame them for tacking the "Yamamoto or bust" approach. If they miss on him, I think you'll be looking at Senga, Quintana, Severino, a decent one- or two-year innings guy with some upside and probably a host of in-house names.
Giant Step
1:29
SF Giants need power now that they've overspent on a line-drive hitter.  Why not Rhys Hoskins?
Steve Adams
1:29
Hoskins/Giants is a reasonable match for me, sure.
Dbacks fan
1:29
What will it take for the Diamondbacks to show other fanbases that they will be an ongoing threat for a while?
Load More Messages
Connecting…