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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/17/24
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Steve Adams
8:38
Good morning! We'll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to send in some questions ahead of time! Also just an advance note that I'll be off for the bulk of next week, but I'll try to get a chat in on Friday Dec. 27.
12:58
Greetings! Let's get underway
Cashman
12:58
Did I purposefully overhype Caleb Durbin to trade him? Or was there ever a chance that he was going to start at 2nd for the Yanks?
Steve Adams
12:59
Ha, we kind of wondered about that. I think there probably was some of that at play. But the team obviously liked him to an extent -- you're not selecting a guy to the 40-man roster as some sort of smokescreen ruse to inflate trade value. But, I also never really bought the idea that Caleb Durbin was going to be their Opening Day 2B
Guest
12:59
Can you please explain how Bryan De La Cruz isn’t eligible for salary arbitration, now that he is a Brave? (The reason the Pirates non-tendered him is because he was to make approximately $4m in arbitration.) He *is* on the Braves’ 40-man roster, right?
Doesn’t his “right to arbitration” follow him to a new team? Or, does being non-tendered, by any team, nullify his right to arbitration… forever?
Could the Braves have signed him (to this deal) had the Pirates TRADED him to ATL?
I thought I knew about arbitration, and even Super-2... but, I guess not.
Thx.
Steve Adams
1:01
He's on the Braves' 40-man roster, yes. But the free agent contract he signed already set his salary. He'll earn based on a reported $860K base salary for any time spent in the majors.

The purpose of arbitration is to determine a player's salary for the coming season. The free agent negotiations between Atlanta and De La Cruz's camp already did that. BDLC only has 3+ years of service, so if he hits enough to stick around in Atlanta, he'd be arb-eligible next winter and go through the more traditional arbitration process.
Sophia
1:01
With the Sacramento Athletics raising payroll to avoid a potential players union grievance being filed, why aren't teams like the Pirates and Rays doing the same?
Steve Adams
1:04
They don't need to, at least not in the union's eyes. The A's finished the 2024 season with a luxury-tax number just over $80MM. The Rays and Pirates were more than $40MM ahead of that.

Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh (justifiably) take crap for their light spending, but they were miles ahead of the A's last year. Everyone was. And since the A's have done this before -- under the same ownership -- it's understandable that the MLBPA raised the issue.

(For what it's worth, the union did file grievances against the Marlins, Rays, A's and Pirates in 2018... they subsequently dropped the grievance a few years later, as a condition of ratifying the 2022-26 CBA).
Guest
1:04
Thoughts in who the Nationals should sign?
Steve Adams
1:05
Who they SHOULD sign? They have practically no money on the long-term books. Get wild and pay up for Corbin Burnes.

Who they WILL sign? Probably a less-exciting veteran who can help chew up some innings. I think I put them on Andrew Heaney in the free agent contest, so I'll selfishly pick him, ha.
Dancing mcgraw
1:06
Do you think Goldy is cooked? Or still got something left in the tank
Steve Adams
1:07
He hit for most of the second half before tanking the final couple weeks again. The bat speed isn't great anymore, but I can buy him still being a productive hitter... not to the full extent of his peak of course, but if he went out and was like 10-15% better than an average hitter in 2025, I wouldn't be shocked.
Frank gold
1:07
Trout to the dodgers?
Steve Adams
1:08
Good time for my weekly "Mike Trout won't be traded" comment.
Mr. Baseball
1:08
Thoughts on Sugano going to the Orioles?
Steve Adams
1:08
Seems fine if it's one of multiple pitching additions. If that's their lone rotation move, then woof.
DJ
1:08
Is Burnes a virtual lock to get more than Fried?
Steve Adams
1:09
I expect him to, but it's not a lock. It depends what he's asking for. If he wants to top Strasburg's 245, sure, I can see that. If he wants 300+, it's going to be a long winter for him, and maybe come February he pivots to a three-year deal with multiple opt-outs, in which case he'd get less than Fried obviously.
Men Behaving Adley
1:10
Mayo and a top 10 prospect for Castillo. Who says no? Sub Mountcastle and 2 top 12 prospects...who says no?
Steve Adams
1:11
I highly doubt the O's would do Mayo-for-Castillo straight up, let alone Mayo and another good prospect. On the flip side, I don't think Mountcastle is enough of a headliner to get the M's to give up Castillo. Plus, if they did move Castillo, I imagine part of the reason would be to pursue a more notable free-agent 1B, like Christian Walker.
Elbow
1:11
With all the NPB/KBO signings of journeyman MLBers, do you know what the process behind the scenes usually looks like with these signings? Is it always the player's agent seeking opportunities abroad? I personally like the idea of the Wyverns or Golden Eagles having a "middling end-of-the-roster MLBer" scouting department where they identify guys who probably can't secure a roster guarantee in MLB, and then the NPB/KBO team reaching out to the player's agent.
Steve Adams
1:12
It goes both ways. I know one former big league scout who was with several teams here but is now with a KBO team where his job is to scout AAA for possible players to bring overseas. So, your idea of a Wyverns (they're the Landers now, but I digress) or Eagles scout looking through the sea of AAA / AAAA players is a real thing!
AJ
1:13
I haven't seen anything official, did the Jays get under the CBT?
Steve Adams
1:13
There's no official report on final CBT penalties yet. The league hasn't released that data. Reportedly, the Jays did duck just underneath.
Cole Dunstan
1:14
What would an ideal offseason for the Giants look like now they have Adames? Sign burnes then Buehler? Trade for bellinger or suzuki? Or do they need more?
Steve Adams
1:17
I like the Adames deal more than I'll probably like whatever Burnes ends up signing for. I'm not huge on Buehler. In general, I think adding another starting pitcher would be nice, but the bigger goal should be adding an outfielder who can actually hit. Right now, I'm not sure they have one outside of Heliot Ramos, who did all of his damage against lefties (seriously, the wildest platoon splits I can remember seeing from a RHH ... 222 wRC+ against lefties, 88 against righties!)
AA
1:17
what am I doing?
Steve Adams
1:19
Probably wishing he hadn't spent like $50MM+ to buy Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.

More realistically, it seems like it'll be an offseason spent waiting out the market for players who are looking for a soft landing later on.

Anthopoulos never really spends in free agency, though, so I don't consider it too surprising that they're not going after any top names. They'll probably add a one-year starter, be it a free agent or a trade for someone affordable (e.g. Chris Paddack), and take a similar route in the outfield.
Mr. Average
1:19
How does Michael Conforto keep making bank year after year when he's been an average or barely above player since 2021 and has a dicey injury history? I don't get it.
Steve Adams
1:21
He got the two years and $36MM as an upside play in what (retrospectively) was a pretty awesome deal for the player at the time, given that he missed all of the prior season and wasn't great even in 2021.

His $17MM deal with the Dodgers is a reminder that teams (especially big market ones) will pay premiums to keep contract length to a minimum and also that away from Oracle Park in San Francisco last year, Conforto mashed: .253/.323/.530 (133 wRC+).

He also had pretty nice batted-ball metrics. I thought some team would just sign him for two years around $20MM or so, but I obviously underestimated the earning power he'd have on a one-year deal.
Kyle
1:23
Could Gavin Lux bring back and 4/5 starter?
Steve Adams
1:23
Yeah I think the right team would be willing to send a back-of-the-rotation arm to L.A. for Lux.
AA burner
1:24
the Kelenic acquisition cost was like $30M and $25M of it was on the 2024 books …
Steve Adams
1:24
Now factor in the taxes they paid on that money as a second-time luxury payor who pushed into the third penalty tier.
Player Chats
1:24
Will we ever see these again?
Steve Adams
1:25
Yeah, Tim and I were talking about that in Dallas last week. It's something we have interest in doing again
Still an A
1:25
How much is Kyle Tucker making in free agency? Do the Cubs have a shot at resigning him?
David
1:25
Would $400 million over 12 years be enough to extend Tucker?
Steve Adams
1:27
I have a bunch of these, ranging from 300 to 500. I don't think Tucker's signing for anything starting with a 3 -- not after what Soto landed. I know Soto is a unicorn and all, but I was thinking 350ish even before Soto. Tim Dierkes was saying he thought $500MMish the other day. I'm probably somewhere in the mid-400s. Depends how his platform season in Chicago goes, of course. He could play himself up clearly into the 5s or be injured and really throw his market for a loop. Right now, I say it starts with a 4 (and is over 400 by a fair margin)
Jeff
1:28
Why doesn't a team like the white Sox, Rockies, and Athletics take on some bad contracts if it brings good prospects with them?
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