You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 12/15/22
powered byJotCast
Steve Adams
8:17
Greetings all! I'll hop in here at 1pm CT and start taking questions, but feel free to submit some ahead of time if you like. Lots to talk about with the past week-plus of deals... looking forward to this, as always!
12:58
Let's get this underway!
redfraggle
12:59
Do you see the O's as a fit for Casali or do you think he wants a starting role?
Steve Adams
12:59
I don't really think many teams are going to offer Curt Casali a starting job, but he can probably find somewhere that would give him more playing time than backing up Adley Rutschman. Susan Slusser from the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants have talked to him about a reunion, and that'd be one such opportunity.
Angels 1961
1:00
Looks like halos will not be making a big splash this off season. What SS could they still pursue in FA market?
Steve Adams
1:00
There's not a ton out there. They've kind of been-there, done-that with Jose Iglesias. Elvis Andrus is a fine option, and I still think there's a decent chance the Guardians end up trading Amed Rosario once the dust settles from the free-agent SS market.
My name
1:01
Do you see the Cubs making any big splashs?
Steve Adams
1:02
I consider the Cubs and the Twins the two likeliest teams to sign Dansby Swanson at this point. I think I lean slightly toward Minnesota doing so, rather than Chicago, but Swanson/Cubs is a totally viable outcome in my view.
Varsho
1:02
I was a slightly above average offensive player (even as a pull heavy batter with the shift), that played plus defense in RF/CF (my RF defense put up comparable value to Arenado at 3B), filled in occasionally at C, bat left handed, and have four years of team control left in my athletic prime. How much am I actually worth?
Steve Adams
1:04
Probably a lot more than a lot of people who aren't that  familiar with Varsho would realize. A cursory glance at his offense isn't going to turn many heads, but he had plus-plus grades in RF last year, handled CF well, can catch in a pinch... four years of control. All the things you said make him wildly valuable. He might have the most trade value of any of Arizona's outfielders (aside from Corbin Carroll, who's just not going to be traded).

He should bring back immediate MLB help for the D-backs' rotation if they move him -- a controllable arm who's better than a No. 4 starter. I love Daulton Varsho.

I also don't think he'll be traded and think that if/when the D-backs move someone, it'll be Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy.
Guest
1:05
Seems like Cleveland could have easily topped the package Oakland got for Murphy. Not a single Top 100 prospect. Guess
Steve Adams
1:08
Generally speaking, teams have their own valuations of players that differ pretty wildly from Baseball America, FanGraphs, etc. The A's, in particular, seem to value players quite a bit differently than many of those lists. I can all but assure you they have Esteury Ruiz as a top-100 prospect in their own internal evaluations.

It's always interesting to get a glimpse into that sort of thing when possible; the gap is often far larger than most would realize.
DJB
1:08
if the Padres are not in on Rodon, what are their best options to solidify the starting rotation?
Steve Adams
1:09
Well, firstly, I'll never rule the Padres out on anyone at this point. If they signed Dansby Swanson and told everyone they plan to play him at catcher, I'd just shrug and say "Yeah that checks out"
1:10
They were reported finalists for Bassitt, which suggests that they were at least willing to approach a $20MM AAV; Rodon will be well past that, but he's also a better pitcher, so I wouldn't be shocked if they just said "hell with it" and signed him.
1:11
Beyond him, the free-agent market has been fairly picked over but there are still some decent names out there. Eovaldi would be my pick, assuming the shoulder looks good. Corey Kluber's another appealing option. If you want to buy low, there's Danny Duffy or Joe Ross.
Revive MLBTRFAT
1:12
Bring back the MLBTR Free Agent Tracker...everything in a single scroll, and an annual thing until now ––who thought that getting rid of it for '22-3 was the right call????
Steve Adams
1:13
We're building some better trackers right now, which comes at the expense of some old ones, admittedly. The goal is to have far better and more comprehensive and more useful tools in that vein within the next year.
BrewCrew
1:14
Is Trey Mancini a fit for the Brewers (play some RF and 1B vs. LHP)?  What type of contract will it take (years and $)?
Steve Adams
1:16
He'd work there, although this is a skill set the Brewers don't value that much. He's a defensively limited slugger on the short side of a platoon. In general, low-OBP sluggers aren't the Brewers' favorite, hence the trade of Hunter Renfroe. This team non-tendered Chris Carter after he led the NL in home runs, traded away Khris Davis, etc.

Mancini is a nice on-paper fit, but I guess, given the history with this profile, I'd only expect it if he wound up signing for like a year and $5-6MM. I think he can do better than that but do expect he'll be capped at two years, with one year the likelier landing spot.
Marlins
1:16
Pablo Lopez for Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg, is that enough?
Steve Adams
1:17
I don't think the Orioles are going to trade multiple meaningful, near-MLB-ready prospects for a pitcher they can only control two seasons. If they'd been more aggressive in free agency and sent the message that they're all-in on 2023, perhaps, but they're not really acting that way. Seems they'd rather add some short-term veterans, evaluate the near-MLB prospects to see who can seize spots in the lineup, and then push more aggressively forward in 2024.
STL fan
1:17
How much money did Nolan Arenado leave on the table by not opting out? 350 million dollars?
Steve Adams
1:19
Well he's still getting $144MM, so "leaving 350 on the table" would mean he'd have signed for 494MM, haha, which I don't think was happening.

That said, I was predicting over $200MM for Arenado even before the market exploded. I thought he had $60MM+ to gain if he opted out, and that was adhering to the recent free-agent trends that saw teams typically not willing to pay position players beyond their age-37 season.
1:20
Knowing what we know now, I think think it's unreasonable to suggest a team might've signed him through his age-40 season at a lower AAV... he might've left more than $100MM on the table (on top of the $144MM he's already guaranteed)
STL fan
1:20
Who signs Rodon and for how much?
Steve Adams
1:22
Yankees, Padres and Twins make the most sense here -- Minnesota mostly just because there's pressure to do something after getting spurned by Correa. That said, this front office has been pretty risk-averse with pitchers, so I think it's likelier they go after Swanson if they take one of the big two SPs.

I'm picking the Yankees at something like $180-190MM over 6-7 years, but neither San Diego nor Minnesota would surprise me. I don't think the Cardinals are going to these heights.
Justin Turner
1:22
What is my market looking like? I’m probably just going to end up staying with the Dodgers right?
Steve Adams
1:23
Marlins have an offer out. D-backs have interest. I imagine that as the very top tier of free agency finally settles into new homes, Turner will pick up interest from some other clubs, too. I do think a return to the Dodgers is sensible, but I wouldn't call it a given.
Jean Segura
1:24
Nobody is talking about me.  Wouldn’t I be a great fit for both BAL and BOS?
Steve Adams
1:24
Orioles would prefer a LHH second baseman, but it's a fine fit still, yeah. White Sox as well.

2B-only free agents don't do all that well on the market these days. Someone will get a deal on Segura.
Josh
1:26
Do you see the Twins trading both Arraez and Kepler this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:26
No on Arraez, yes on Kepler.
Bon Jourvi
1:27
How much has the Twins' offseason has been shaped by their ill-fated decision to play Lewis in the OF?
Steve Adams
1:30
I don't really fault them for playing Lewis in the outfield. Lewis was coming back from an ACL tear to begin the season, and an opportunity to sign an elite shortstop to a short-term deal fell into the Twins' lap. They were right to take the chance. Since he was drafted, Lewis has drawn mixed reviews about his chances of staying at SS from scouts. The Twins are (or at least were) more bullish on his chances to stick there and have been developing him as such, but that was never a reason to shy away from this deal with Correa, and moving Lewis around to get his bat in the lineup was perfectly sensible.

At any rate, even if Lewis were healthy, they'd likely still have been in on Correa to an extent. Beyond that, I'm not sure what would've changed much even if they weren't. They were never going to convince Judge, Verlander or deGrom to sign in Minnesota. They'd probably still have signed Vazquez, etc.
Baltimore Do-Nothing's
1:31
Why are contracts now SO much longer than predicted? Are teams just doing that to lower the AAV?
Steve Adams
1:31
In a word: yes.
Guest
1:32
Do you see Orioles making any noise? It would seem like borderline neglect not to sign another SP- Eovaldi??
Steve Adams
1:33
I think they'll sign another SP and a backup catcher, but the longer the offseason goes on, the more it seems they prefer to stick to one-year deals. I never expected them to pursue Correa, Bogaerts etc. -- but I did think they might be in the Taillon/Manaea/Walker range of free agency. It appears I was wrong.
Jerry Dipoto
1:34
Why haven't I addressed the offense in a more meaningful way? Teoscar is basically just a healthier Mitch Haniger, just go look at their career lines.
Load More Messages
Connecting…