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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/5/24
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Steve Adams
8:41
Good morning, all! I'll get underway at 1pm CT, but feel free to send questions ahead of time.
8:42
Also, as The Opener indicated, we'll be doing a joint chat with readers on Thursday with myself, Tim Dierkes and Darragh McDonald at the very least. That'll focus solely on our Top 50 Free Agent list and predictions, so if you have questions or would like to tell us how wrong and foolish we are, mark your calendars!

(Of course, feel free to do so in today's chat with me as well!)
8:44
This week's episode of the MLBTR Podcast will also feature me, Tim, Darragh and Anthony Franco. We'll have an extra-long episode breaking down some of the more notable free agent picks and explaining some of our rationale. We're recording that later this morning, and it'll drop tomorrow morning! Lots of Top 50 content this week, ha.
1:00
Just finished recording a podcast ep that I think topped two hours in length, ha. That'll drop tomorrow morning. Let's get underway!
Jack Lazorko
1:00
Were you surprised the Angels got Soler for Canning?   Canning has been terrible.
Steve Adams
1:01
No. I don't even think it's a guarantee that the Braves tender a contract to Canning. Soler was a salary dump. The Braves will probably see if they can sign Canning to a contract well beneath his arb projection and if not, cut him loose.

He did at least pile up innings last year though, so if they head into next with him as their SP5, they could do worse.
$600MM
1:01
Over or under Soto’s contract reaching $600MM?
Steve Adams
1:01
Our official pick was 600 exactly, I think, but I was more bullish than most and think it'll come in north of that.
Biff
1:01
Despite Perry Minasian's annual claim that he intends to be aggressive this offseason, only a scant few MLBTR predictions show the Angels in play for bats and arms. Is there any hope for this franchise without a change in ownership?
Steve Adams
1:02
Minasian made the exact same comments last year. It's all at the will of Arte Moreno. We know the Angels typically don't go long-term on starting pitching, and they added a corner OF/DH bat -- one of their needs -- right from the jump with the Soler trade. That took them off Santander, Teo, O'Neill and Profar for me. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign a couple Top 50 guys, though.
Stuck in his Krall
1:02
I noticed most of you didn't have the Reds signing anyone in the top 50.  I think Darragh was the only brave one.  This based on their past history?  Nothing changes for Tito?
Phillies Stuck in Neutral
1:02
I see that the Trade Rumors guys collectively have the Phillies tinkering in the bullpen and not much else. Seems like
Steve Adams
1:04
There are so many questions like this. Us not picking Team X to do anything big doesn't mean we won't think they won't or that it's implausible. I had the Reds signing Santander until like 30 minutes before the list when out. We can only choose one team per guy, and someone like the Phillies could plausibly sign 3-4 guys from the list. But they have a crowded roster and payroll and they'll need to facilitate some movement via the trade market. That's not to say they can't/won't sign Santander or Bregman or whoever. No one at MLBTR thinks that's implausible.
G Crest
1:04
Does Scherzer or Verlander to the Braves make sense?
Steve Adams
1:04
I think any short-term pitcher with some reputation makes sense in ATL, yeah. I gave them Buehler, but sure JV or Max works there.
Mark Lemke
1:05
600M for a right fielder? Baseball economics are insane. Where are all the analytics and AI to explain the idiocy of giving a RF 600M?
Steve Adams
1:05
Soto would be predicted for that amount of money regardless of position. He's the a top-3 hitter in the sport who's reaching free agency at the same time some guys are just making their MLB debuts.
Sadahara Oh
1:05
Roki Sasaki and his 102 fastball will be in Dodger blue in 2025?
Steve Adams
1:06
I don't even think Sasaki will be posted this winter. He's leaving $300MM+ on the table if he comes to MLB before he's 25. He just turned 23.
Mister E. Baseball Fan
1:06
What could a Santander contract look like? Seen anywhere from 4/$80M to 7/$150
Steve Adams
1:06
I see zero chance Santander gets 150. Anything from the upper 60s on a three-year deal to something around Castellanos' 5/100 seems feasible.
Wadz
1:07
McDaniel reported Nats are ‘widely rumored as a landing spot for Bregman.’ Makes sense here. Nats opened the books for Werth at a comparable time last rebuild.
Steve Adams
1:07
I contemplated the Nats for Bregman and a few upper-tier free agents. Didn't ultimately put them there but I buy the thinking.
Coulombe
1:07
Gotta be a health issue right? He's the Orioles second best reliever after Bautista. $4 million is nothing.
Steve Adams
1:08
Probably the most surprising option decision to me. I thought picking that up was a no-brainer. But, he did miss a lot of time this season, to your point. We don't know what the medicals looked like. Even if they're bad, the Orioles aren't going to leak that out and adversely impact his market.
Mariners
1:09
Is Kyle tucker back next year
Steve Adams
1:09
In Houston? I'd be stunned if he were moved.
Amir
1:09
On the Dodgers... If Sasaki doesn't come and we can't get Fried, then I'd love to land Yusei Kikuchi on a 2 year deal. We need a lefty in the rotation and I think the Dodgers will be even further able to unblock his potential.
Steve Adams
1:10
I don't think you really "need" a lefty in a rotation. I agree that there are benefits to diversifying the look opponents get over a season and that there's value in forcing teams to tinker with their lineup in a postseason series, but a strong all-RHP rotation can be just fine. Plus, the Dodgers will have Kershaw back at some price (health permitting, obviously).

As for Kikuchi -- lots of teams would love him on a two-year deal. Which is why he'll get at least three with an outside chance at four.
Paul
1:11
Hasn’t Sasaki already expressed his desire to be posted? Seems like the Marines are the ones who are financially motivated to wait.
Steve Adams
1:12
It's a fair point that he's publicly said as much, though that can also be leverage in talks with his current club and a means of generating attention ahead of time as well. I've talked to a few people who share my skepticism he'd leave that much on the table, but every player has his own motivations.
Tom Kelly's blues
1:12
Of Twins IF's (Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Julien) please rank most to least likely to be traded
Steve Adams
1:12
Just gut feeling: Julien, Miranda, Lee, Lewis.
Guest
1:13
Do you see the Rangers being legitimate contenders for Fried?
Steve Adams
1:13
I think that's more expensive than they'll go this offseason. Everything Chris Young has said paints Eovaldi as their top target.
Brett Baty
1:13
If Alonso bolts, am I going to get the first shot at1B, or am I going to be dealt?
Steve Adams
1:14
If Alonso leaves, I imagine Vientos moving to 1B happens long before Baty. Mets could go with another short-term free agent 1B (Christian Walker, for instance) or just put Vientos at 1B and then decide if they want to go Baty/Mauricio at third or pursue Bregman, Arenado trade, etc.
O's Fan
1:15
Obviously, with new ownership, nobody knows what the Orioles are going to do. Could you see them making a play for Teoscar Hernandez/Nate Eovaldi on 2-3 year deals if Burnes/Santander leave?
Steve Adams
1:16
Both are perfectly reasonable. I think Hernandez gets 3 though.
Pete Alonso
1:16
Do you think I beat the offer I turned down from the Mets of 7 years at $158? If so, who pays me that much since over the last 3 years my WAR and OPS have declined over that time.
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