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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/28/23
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Steve Adams
8:34
Good morning all! The offseason is picking up some steam and the Winter Meetings are a week away (well, less than that)! We'll chat at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit a question/questions in advance. Looking forward to it, as always!
1:03
Greetings! Let's begin
Tigers just formally announced their deal with Kenta Maeda
And publicly disclosed the terms! Hooray. More teams should do this. They all get out anyway, often from the team just anonymously leaking them. Just make it public. Way to go Scott Harris, ha. Onto the chat!
Scott
1:04
Would a trade involving Castellanos and Edward Cabrera make sense for both teams?
Steve Adams
1:04
Castellanos has negative trade value. There's no framework here that makes sense. If the Phillies ate the entire contract, the Marlins still wouldn't give them Cabrera. Maybe if Philly sent them Castellanos, ate all the money, AND took back the rest of Avi Garcia's deal or something, ha, but that's not happening.
Orioles
1:05
Will they spend more than 30 million in total guarantees this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:06
Can we count salary acquired in a trade? I'll take the over on how much they add to the payroll but don't know that I expect them to spend 30+ on free agents alone when they have such a glut of position players they could trade for pitching help
Adam
1:06
Any chance the Cardinals might  sign another starting pitcher?
Steve Adams
1:07
Mozeliak said yesterday he doesn't foresee it but never rules anything out. I think if they add a starter it'd be more a scenario where they find an opportunistic means of jumping into trade talks.
Jose Miranda
1:07
Any chance I have a bounceback season, and if so, is there room for me on the Twins? Maybe first base?
Steve Adams
1:08
He was clearly hurt last year, hence the shoulder surgery. Before that, he was a top-100 guy who'd hit at like every level and, after a pretty bleak three-week debut, tore the cover off the ball for three months. So yeah, I think it's perfectly plausible that Miranda reestablishes himself as a viable cog in the Twins' lineup.
KJ
1:08
Any thoughts on the Dejong deal for the White Sox? Does he end up being the everyday starter and possibly a bridge to Colson Montgomery for next season?
Steve Adams
1:08
Reasonable enough cheap bridge to Colson Montgomery, yeah. Not much more to it than that. If he's hitting at all next summer, he'll be a trade candidate. If he's not, he'll probably have been DFA'ed by then.
Bucees
1:09
Rhys Hoskins to the Cubs, 1 year 14 million with a 20 million dollar option?
Steve Adams
1:10
We predicted 2/40 for Hoskins with an opt-out after the first year. I don't think he'd sign for 14 guaranteed. I imagine there'd be 10+ teams willing to do that.
Seinfeld
1:10
Is it okay for me to eat ice cream for lunch today?
Steve Adams
1:10
You do you, Jerry.
Casey A
1:10
best guess: what team is Soto on opening day?
Steve Adams
1:11
Yankees, but that's just a guess. He's so good that there's really no contending team he could be traded to that would truly stun me. If you said like... the Royals acquired him, then OK, I'd be shocked, haha.
Smitty
1:11
Braves get Cease and Robert for Grissom Elder And two lower prospects
Farhan Zaidi
1:12
What would it take to get Cease and Robert Jr. from White Sox. How about Cease and Eloy or all 3?
Steve Adams
1:12
Tons of off-the-wall White Sox trade questions, so let's just say this
1) No way does that package get Cease and Robert. I have my doubts about if it gets Cease alone.
1:14
2) Luis Robert can be controlled for four more years at a total of $67.5MM -- the second two years of which are team options, giving the Sox or an acquiring team an out if he incurs some kind of career-altering injury. He might have the most trade value of any plausible trade candidate in MLB right now. Robert alone should command a Soto-esque package, if not more.
That is -- the Abrams/Gore/Hassell/Wood/Susana package the Padres gave up to acquire Soto. Not the watered-down (but still surely quite strong) package they'll net if/when they trade him this winter.
Baseball Enjoyer
1:15
Do you see Luis Severino as a realistic target for the tigers? Also do you expect him to make the move to the bullpen or continue starting?
Steve Adams
1:15
Sure, seems plausible. He'll start wherever he signs.
Chris
1:15
Given they dont have much payroll room, chances the Astros trade Bregman to free up money to spread around for a CF like Kiermaier, SP depth, and a replacement 3B like Gio?  Several win now teams like Cubs, Mariners, Jays all could use a 3B and have payroll space for a rental.
Steve Adams
1:16
I've seen the Bregman rumors and will have something on the site about them today, but broadly speaking I don't expect it. There's some defensible logic to moving him -- limited financial flexibility as is, big return in a trade, unlikely to be extended as a Scott Boras guy who's a year from market, etc. -- but at the end of the day the Astros are trying to win. Trading one of their best players to free up the money to sign a collection of lesser players doesn't clearly help them do that.
Obed
1:17
Thoughts on when an Ohtani deal might be done? I feel he's the big "hold up" to really get the deals moving.
Steve Adams
1:18
He probably is, but no one knows when things will reach a conclusion. Ohtani wants as tight-lipped a free agency as possible, and teams recognize the once-in-a-lifetime rarity of a free agent like this. They're not going to jeopardize anything by leaking details. Ohtani's free agency will be a big opaque mystery box and I doubt we'll hear much of anything concrete before he just chooses an offer and actually signs.
Joey Gladstone
1:18
MLBTR seems to all have predicted Ohtani to LAD. Do you actually see that happening? Or do you think he signs with a low market team like the Orioles?
Steve Adams
1:19
I picked him to the Rangers, but yeah each of Darragh, Tim and Anthony went Dodgers.
That's not a declaration of extreme confidence in the Dodgers or anything though. It's just a highly plausible fit that they all chose when making their top 50 predictions/guesses independently of one another.
1:20
I don't think the Orioles will spend at that level, but I also don't think it's an absolute foregone conclusion he'll just sign in a major market like L.A.
Upset Sox Fan
1:21
With Lopez and Dejong, any chance the Sox still sign merrifield? Would he play RF everyday?
Steve Adams
1:22
Whit Merrifield is a 35-year-old veteran who's spent most of his career on a non-contending Royals club. I have to think he's going to want to sign somewhere that gives him a better chance to win than the White Sox will in 2024. Doubt this does much to quell your frustration -- sorry to make you more upset!
Brodie
1:22
Who do you think the Orioles should sign to bolster their rotation?
Steve Adams
1:24
They SHOULD just sign Yamamoto or lose their minds and go all-in for Ohtani. In actuality, I think they'll probably trade for an arm and sign a pretty middle-of-the-road starter. This front office and the ownership since Peter Angelos ceded control to his son just hasn't shown any inclination to be active in free agency whatsoever. I wonder what their 2023 season might've looked like if their SP additions last winter were more than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin.
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