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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/20/24
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Steve Adams
8:31
Good morning! Sorry for the lack of a Tuesday chat. With the QO deadline and the Rule 5 protection deadline looming, we had an all-hands-on-deck approach to news coverage for the day, and I opted to push the chat back 24 hours. We'll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
12:59
Hey there! Let's get underway
Earl
12:59
How will it work with Soto. Will his agent negotiate with multiple team simultaneously or does he pick a team and see if he can make a deal?
Steve Adams
12:59
Players and agents are negotiating with all teams simultaneously right now
Jerry Dipoto
12:59
Outside of Bohm, who is a realistic trade candidate at 3B for the Mariners?
Steve Adams
1:01
I can see the Mets making Brett Baty available. Twins have a lot of infielders and could conceivably move Jose Miranda. Could gauge Cincinnati's interest in some kind of Haniger/Jeimer Candelario swap.

I also don't think Nolan Arenado's contract is all that cumbersome. He's owed $74MM over three years, with the Rockies covering $10MM of that ($5MM this year and next). So 3/64 ... not outlandish. If the Cards pay it down a bit, it's workable for the M's, though the remaining dollars are rather notably frontloaded.
Guest
1:01
Any chance you'll link news to Bluesky soon? With the mass Xodus from the bird app it would be really appreciated.
Steve Adams
1:01
We've been posting on both Bluesky and Threads in addition to Facebook, X, etc.
Skubal
1:02
Traded this year or is after next year more likely?
Steve Adams
1:03
Neither? The Tigers just reached the playoffs and are squarely in win-now mode. He's not likely to sign an extension, but he'll reach free agency as a Tiger and at least net them comp picks after rejecting a QO. Or they'll just pony up and re-sign him
Todd C
1:03
I figure the Braves either work out a deal for significantly less than the projected $5M+ for Canning or DFA him, your thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:04
Yeah, I can see them offering a below-projection pre-tender deal, and if he doesn't want it, just non-tender him (no need to even DFA). That's how a lot of pre-tender deals work. Team makes an offer that's well below expected levels, but the player accepts knowing the alternative is a non-tender and potentially months on the market followed by a deal that was lower than their projected number anyhow.
any surprise predictions?
1:04
Soto to ?
Steve Adams
1:04
Not from me. I picked the Mets.
Joe
1:05
What happens to playerss not on 40 man if they are traded between now and rule 5 draft
Steve Adams
1:06
You just won't see many Rule 5-eligible, non-40-man players traded -- at least not if they have any real chance to be selected. The number of unprotected guys who'll potentially be picked isn't large.
Jon
1:07
Is there a world where the Mets sign both Alonso and Soto?
Steve Adams
1:07
Sure. Not like if the Mets sign Soto they're just going to call it an offseason. And Alonso probably isn't going to command a massive deal -- north of $100MM? Sure. But I'll take the under on 150.
Jesse
1:08
Would a cap speed up free agency? Every year besides the lockout year has been a drag.
Steve Adams
1:09
I don't see a need to speed it up, I guess. I actually prefer it to be spread out all winter. It's more fun to have incremental progress and a smattering of signings spread across months than it is to have 24-72 hours where everything happens at once and you can't even keep up with the news.

Well, to me anyway. To each their own, but I like that free agency's slow pace makes baseball a year-round sport to follow.
Ebenezer_Batflip
1:09
Can a trade package of Abreu+Mayer get the Red Sox a more valuable pitcher than Crochet, like Gilbert from Seattle? Other than Crochet, which top of rotation SPs do you think Boston can realistically trade for?
Steve Adams
1:10
I don't think there's another top-of-the-rotation starter who's likely to be traded this winter.
It's Crochet and that's about it.
1:11
The Mariners have been pretty adamant about not dealing from their stock of arms. I guess maybe if you bowled them over for Luis Castillo or offered the payroll-crunched Twins something stupid for Pablo Lopez, maybe you could make either team think, but I just generally don't expect many top-tier starters to be available
Singer for India
1:12
Does this eventually happen?
Steve Adams
1:13
I don't understand why the Royals would, unless Cincinnati's kicking in quite a bit more. Singer's a better and more valuable player, and India's limited power and poor glove don't strike me as an especially good fit for KC anyhow. (Similarly, I think the move to GABP would hurt Singer a good bit, so I just don't love the trade for either side.)
Jackson
1:13
Do you see the padres extending any of their younger stars like Merrill, king or arraez?
Steve Adams
1:15
King and Arraez aren't really young. They're 29 and 28. They both have one year until free agency. King's the more appealing extension candidate there, but if he repeats his 2024 season he might get $100MM+ as a free agent.

Merrill's the most obvious of the bunch to pursue, and I think there's a decent chance he'd be open to it, given how far he is from free agency or even arbitration.
Lonnie Smith
1:16
Is buehler, soroka, Kim an attainable off-season for braves? And would you consider that a success?
Steve Adams
1:17
Three high-risk injury signings isn't an ideal trio of moves for an individual team. Any of the three individually, sure, but I don't think all three in conjunction, no.
Bobby evans
1:17
now that Im back will I try any risky trades?
Steve Adams
1:17
He's an advisor to Buster Posey. Evans isn't going to be making any trades himself.
ChiSox Fan (Heaven help me)
1:18
Mayer or Campbell for Crochet, straight up. Who says no?
Steve Adams
1:19
I don't think the Sox would do one-for-one, well regarded as Boston's top-end prospects are.
Josh
1:19
If Yankees miss out on Soto, what do you think their plan B is? Consider that $88m comes off the books for luxury tax purposes. Think Fried, Burnes, relievers, Sasaki, 1B, etc.
Steve Adams
1:21
Anything's in play at that point. Some combination of Santander/Christian Walker the top free-agent SP and RP. I don't think they have a singular "Plan B" where it's "Ok quick let's sign Walker, Santander, Fried and Tanner Scott" -- it'll be a quantity play focused on adding several names in the top tiers of free agency, but probably not "No Soto, now we need this very specific group"
JohnJasoJingleHeimerSchmidt
1:21
The Twins could get a decent return for Chris Paddack if they made him available. He's got strong underlying numbers, do you think they do it?
Steve Adams
1:22
I think they'll trade him but disagree on the decent return. Paddack is priced about where he would be as a reclamation project with good stuff but plenty of health risks. You could argue there's a couple million in surplus value, but that's not going to net them a big prospect return.
Trade
1:23
Assuming Soto chooses a non-Jays club. Jays get: Bellinger, Ben Brown, James Triantos. Cubs get: Vlad Jr. Who says no?
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