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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/18/25
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Steve Adams
10:27
Good morning all! Sorry for the odd timing and abrupt start today. With the QO acceptance deadline and Rule 5 protection deadline both looming this afternoon, I assume it's going to be a bit too chaotic to run a chat at the usual time. We'll go for about an hour this morning, like usual.
JD
10:30
I made my statement move. Where do I look to improve next between 2B, 3B and bullpen?
Steve Adams
10:32
All of the above? It's not really a matter of one priority over the other. I'd be surprised if the Mariners don't add one more infielder and at least one bullpen arm, though the former is a bigger priority. Retaining Polanco is the most straightforward option, but I could see Gleyber as well, if he rejects a QO. Trade market is always in play, too. Brendan Donovan fits really nicely both in terms of roster need and the general skill set (high contact/low strikeout, defensive versatility) I'd expect Seattle to value heavily.
Royals
10:32
Would Kris Bubic for Jhostynxon Garcia be a deal that could work?
Steve Adams
10:33
While Bubic being traded wouldn't surprise me, I don't think he's going to fetch an MLB-ready top-100 prospect. He's coming off another injury-shortened season and only has one year of club control remaining.
Mitch Garver
10:33
The team that drafted me needs a new backup catcher right? Reunion time?
Steve Adams
10:34
Garver's defensive grades have wilted, and I feel like if the Twins want a backup they'll just sign a glove-first type. If they're going to spend money this winter -- far from a guarantee -- backup catcher seems a ways down the list of needs.
Henry
10:35
Do you think the blue jays are the favourites to sign Tucker?
Steve Adams
10:35
I don't think there's any one individual favorite at this point, but the Jays are among the five to six most plausible and likeliest landing spots, sure.
Unclemike1526
10:35
You think Shota will sign a new deal with the Cubs or leave? I'm still not sold that he wants out of town. Thanks
Steve Adams
10:37
He basically turned down two years and $30MM from them when he declined his player option (since exercising it would've given him another $15MM player option).

Maybe he prefers the one-year, higher-AAV route, but then he's just a free agent again ahead of a potential work stoppage? I tend to think he'll reject and get three years elsewhere -- very likely at less than the $57.75MM he'd have made if the Cubs had exercised his option
Guest
10:37
Dustin May & Beuhler to the Padres for 3 million apiece?
Steve Adams
10:38
I'm pretty much out on both pitchers, but that's the sort of move the Padres probably have to make. $3MM might be light, especially on May (although honestly, I'm not sure I'd even give him that if it were my call).
Joshua
10:38
Passan floated the idea of the Nats dealing MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams in the same deal. I think this would make a TON of sense for a team like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, etc. Virtually any team that is close and could use Abrams at 2B. Using the Dodgers as a template, what could this deal look like?
Steve Adams
10:40
Saw that. Also saw he said it's "not quite Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from 2021" referring to the Dodgers trade, but I don't agree with that. Max was a rental. Turner had 1.5 expensive years left. Gore has two years. Abrams has three. Price should very arguably be significantly higher than what the Dodgers gave up for Max/Trea (which was then-top-100 prospects Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, plus a couple of middle/lower-tier guys further down the org ladder)
10:41
Gore alone should command close to a pair of top-100 prospects. I don't find him any less desirable than Garrett Crochet a year ago, and he landed a four-player package headlined by Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery (both top-100 names).
10:42
If you're trying to peddle Gore/Abrams in a combo deal on the Dodgers, you've got to be looking at two of De Paula, Freeland, Hope, Sirota, etc. at the very least, plus significant value beyond that. It should take a massive haul.
Adam Steves
10:42
Senga for Fairbanks. Who says no?
Steve Adams
10:42
Fairbanks is a free agent
Erik Gonzalez
10:43
True or false: Cleveland can trade Kwan AND have a better offense in 2026
Steve Adams
10:44
True, but being a better overall team probably require them spending money, which is a hard sell for Cleveland ownership. You could potentially get a young MLB-ready OF back in the deal though, and given that Kwan was only a league-average hitter last season, it's not crazy to think the new OF would provide more offense. But I doubt said new OF would also post top-of-the-scale defensive work and plus baserunning.
Willie Monteanez
10:45
With the Braves success with swing guys like Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes and past interest in Jeff Hoffman. Do you think they’ll be in on similar profile guys like Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, and Nick Martinez this offseason?
Steve Adams
10:45
I picked Keller to go there in part based on that history and in part because the Braves love nothing more than loading up on Georgia natives, ha.
Trade Proposal
10:45
Mitch Keller for Jarren Duran. Who says no?
Steve Adams
10:45
Keller is good but not worth Duran
PhilsPhansince1965
10:46
Are you as skeptical about Murakami being worth what he will be paid as I am? Too many question marks despite the 80 grade power potential.
Steve Adams
10:48
Sure. He might be like ... Miguel Sano.

He might also be a 26-year-old Schwarber-esque bat with a bit more defensive utility if he can play a passable 1B.

For a big-market team, that's worth the risk. I'm enough of a believer in the power that I'm probably on the more bullish side from where you seem to be. If I were running the show somewhere and bidding climbed north of $200MM,  I'd probably tap out, but it all depends on how much financial support you can expect from ownership in the near future.
Brewers Oz
10:48
Shota seems like an obvious candidate to take the QO... you predict 3/45.

If he takes the QO then that means, he just needs 2/23 without a QO hanging over his head.

Thoughts?
Steve Adams
10:49
Pitchers get hurt all the time and the trend lines on him are down. If he can lock in 3/45 right now, a lot of people would consider that better than accepting and trying again.

Tyler Anderson rejected a $19.65MM QO to sign for 3/40.
Guest
10:50
Any sense that Jeremy Pena could be available in talks with Correa and Paredes both being present?
Steve Adams
10:52
I talked about this on a podcast maybe 5-6 weeks ago, kind of tongue-in-cheek and with a "this won't happen but hey let's talk about it" possibility. I'd be stunned, but a year ago I would've been stunned to see Kyle Tucker traded.

Moving Pena would be nuts, but the return would be exorbitant. And Astros owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to pay the luxury tax in the past, so I wonder about their appetite for signing a meaningful SP/OF in free agency. And Pena is a Boras client with two years left, so he's not going to sign an extension.

Again, I would be genuinely shocked, but after last winter's Tucker saga, I think it's worth keeping in mind as like a "less than 3% chance this happens but it's not COMPLETELY impossible to see" scenario.
Arizona
10:53
Last night Arizona cut a player who had some bullpen upside before getting hurt as a rookie. The control they had over CMDO was valuable. Do you think this portends a Gallen QO accept?
Steve Adams
10:54
No. I think you're reading way too much into it. Montes De Oca had back surgery. There's no 60-day injured list in the offseason. They knew he wouldn't be claimed on waivers coming off the surgery (or at least felt strongly that he'd clear) and they can retain him without giving him a 40-man spot all winter if they pass him through waivers.
10:55
With the deadline to protect guys from the Rule 5 looming this afternoon, his outright was surely about that and unrelated to Gallen, who feels very likely (to me) to reject his QO today
AstrosFAN
10:55
Could Bryan Abreu be available at 2026 deadline?
Steve Adams
10:55
If Houston's out of the playoff picture or on the fringes, sure. He's a free agent next winte.r
Chris
10:55
Donovan to Yanks. What would a pitching return look like? Warren or Gil plus one of their top 5 pitch prospects? Good luck today!
Steve Adams
10:57
Warren + a 50 FV pitching prospect (Ben Hess, Bryce Cunningham, etc) doesn't feel crazy to me. Might to the Yankees -- but I'm probably not as high on Warren as some. (Not that I think he's bad or anything, to be clear)
Sam
10:58
Royce Lewis has expressed overwhelming optimism about the team's outlook with Shelton's hiring, a 180 of what Twins' fans currently feel. Do you have any optimism about this winter for the Twins, Steve?
Steve Adams
10:59
I have minimal faith that the Pohlad family will actually greenlight real spending. But the Twins are going to be something like $40-55MM shy of their Opening Day payroll from 2025 after the non-tender deadline passes ... if ownership says "Hey, you can spend back up to that level again", then yeah, it could be a fun offseason and a fun 2026.

But... I've lived in Minnesota for 35-36 of my 40 years on this planet and have little to no faith the Pohlads will do that, ha.
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