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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/12/24
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Steve Adams
8:19
Good morning! We'll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
12:59
Greetings! Let's begin.
Cubs360
1:00
Isaac paredes , Nico horner and Alexander canario for vladjr , so the cubs put vlad jr at third base and matt shaw at second .. who saya no ?
Steve Adams
1:00
Jays aren't trading Vladdy, and they'd probably want more controllable high-end pieces (e.g. Shaw himself) anyway in the virtually nonexistent scenario where they make him available.
Cris E
1:01
Do you guys know if any front office people enter the Free Agent Prediction contest?
Steve Adams
1:01
Haha, if they do they're using burner accounts. I of course doubt it, but it'd be funny if like, Jerry Dipoto was out there stressing over our leaderboards or something
Guest
1:02
I've seen rumors that  the Twins could make Royce Lewis available, which I think is a big mistake.  What's your take on this & what might he bring back if traded?
Steve Adams
1:02
I think Julien and Miranda are far likely to be available than Lewis, whom I expect to remain in Minnesota. He had a rough second half, and I cannot see them selling low on him.
El Drewz
1:02
How serious are the Red Sox and Blue Jays about Juan Soto?  Do you believe he'd take less money to stay with the Yankees?
Steve Adams
1:03
I don't think Soto is taking less money to stay in the Bronx, no. He spent one year there, and he by all accounts enjoyed it, but the guy turned down a $440MM extension from the team that signed him as a 16-year-old to get to free agency (less than two years after winning a World Series there). He's not going to decide to give the Yankees a discount.
1:04
I believe the interest from both Boston and Toronto, especially the latter, given how hard they tried for Ohtani.
Virginia S
1:04
I'm worried about all the back loaded contracts we have on our team Manny, Xander and Fernando Will we be able to do much when they all start making big bucks? I feel the contract given to Xander was not good at all. Should I be worried?
Steve Adams
1:08
Bogaerts is already making what he's going to make every year. It's $25MM per. The contract wasn't backloaded, it's evenly dispersed. Machado and Tatis are heavily backloaded, though, and it could cause some pain down the road (especially with others like Cronenworth and Darvish signed long-term, too).

We obviously can't know what San Diego's payroll expectations will look like in 2031, but I don't know that the situation is absolutely dire, either. They have $117MM on the books in 2028 and $113MM in 2029-31. That's a big number, of course, but one would imagine the budget is higher by that point.

I don't think the contracts, especially Bogaerts, will age well -- but it's a bit early to say the Friars simply won't be able to do anything. A lot will, of course, depend on the young talent they're able to develop/acquire in the interim years.
But, yes, that Bogaerts deal was jaw-dropping at the time and looks much worse now.
Steve
1:09
Is Sonny Gray a realistic trade target for the Braves?  I think a Gray+Morton return fixes the SP issues.
Steve Adams
1:11
Sonny Gray is owed $65MM over two seasons. He'd immediately push the Braves into the second luxury tier, costing them more than $10MM in taxes on top of his salary. I don't see a scenario where they decide paying $43MM in 2025 for Sonny Gray is a good idea.

Similarly, I don't think Morton coming back on an eight-figure salary makes a ton of sense. I say this every offseason, but the enormous slate of contract extensions the Braves have on the books (plus all the weird money they took on to buy Kelenic) is going to limit them financially.

I don't think they're going to sit on their hands, but I think you're looking at trades for more affordable and unexpected targets rather than signing Willy Adames or trading for Sonny Gray, etc.
Brian
1:11
Which would you rather have for $600MM-$700MM, Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman & Pete Alonso?
Steve Adams
1:11
Juan Soto
Jon
1:11
aoto Meeting with 4 teams this week. Any shot he signs before the end of November? What are the chances ?
Steve Adams
1:12
Four that we know of. It stands to reason that if he's meeting with those four already and there are 6-10 teams in total in the bidding, he's probably just lining up meetings with everyone.

I don't think he signs before the end of November.
MoonbeamMcSwine
1:12
Good afternoon.. Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb.. can the Guardians get one, two or all three to return?
Steve Adams
1:13
I would be surprised if they met Boyd's price on a multi-year deal or re-signed Bieber given the dollars he'll command (even on a one-year deal) when he's going to miss notable time early in the year.

Cobb, I can see, but in general the Guards just don't spend on starting pitching. They trade for it/develop it. If you give me "Guardians sign at least one of these three" or the field, I'd take the field.
Bert
1:14
Say Ha-Seong Kim didn't injure his shoulder and finished 2024 with a league average WRC+ and put up 3.5 fWAR. What kind of contract are you projecting he gets in that hypothetical?
Steve Adams
1:17
$100MMish, and that's probably on the low end. Heck, that's what FanGraphs is predicting for him even after the surgery. (I disagree, but I respect the opinion and the process that went into making said prediction.)

Kim is an interesting player. On the one hand, he's a plus defender at multiple spots including shortstop, and every team would love to have him. On the other, plus defenders with middling offense just don't tend to get paid a lot. The last guy with Kim's skill set we saw get $100MM was ... maybe Andrus on the extension he signed in Texas over a decade ago?

Kim's a better hitter than that, but I don't think you could reasonably project him to be more than 10% better than average or so at the plate. He's not as good a hitter as the guys who got the 6/140 to 6/177 deals (Swanson, Story, Baez ... probably Adames next).
(and the Baez deal looked nuts to me from the jump as well, largely for offensive concerns too)
B. Gomes
1:17
Would an offer of Rushing, Knack, and a lower level lottery ticket get me Crochet?
Steve Adams
1:18
If the Dodgers make Rushing available as the centerpiece and give the White Sox a ready-made rotation replacement (Knack), I think that's a long way toward getting a deal done. Might need to add more than one lower-end piece to the deal, but Rushing is a viable headliner, yes.
Kevin
1:19
Why aren’t the Phillies mentioned as a likely destination for Soto? He has connections to Harper, Turner and Long, and John Middleton promised to spend stupid money. So spend it!
Steve Adams
1:22
They already have a pair of $300MM contracts on the books, plus Nola's seven-year deal and a $42MM/year deal for Wheeler that goes into effect in 2025. They'd be paying around $85MM to Soto in year one of a contract at the annual value he's likely to command.

It's not impossible, and if John Middleton wants to cannonball into that level of spending and trot out a $310MM+ payroll (before luxury taxes), more power to him. But that math makes it pretty apparent to me why they're not cited as a serious bidder.
Peter S
1:22
were you surprised the Dodgers didn’t offer Walker the QO
Steve Adams
1:24
No. We were trying to talk ourselves into two years and an opt-out for him on our contract predictions, and we just couldn't get past the fact that he was legitimately terrible during the regular season. Buehler himself even called his regular season work "awful" on the postgame show after his final World Series start. He also gave up six runs in his first postseason start.

You're basically looking at 10 innings where he pitched well in the NLCS and World Series. That's nice, but it doesn't erase all the prior standing concerns, especially since his raw stuff just still wasn't as big as it was prior to that second Tommy John
Pirates Fan
1:25
Did you see that the fans in Pittsburgh bought billboards around the stadium asking Bob Nutting to sell the Pirates? Do you believe they'll have an impact?
Steve Adams
1:25
Heh, I didn't see that, but I doubt Nutting cares. It's not like the idea that fans want him to sell is new information.
David Dombrowski
1:26
What can I reasonably expect in a trade of Alec Bohm? Is Bregman an option if I deal Bohm?
Steve Adams
1:29
Less than most Phillies fans think. I imagine he could be swapped for a reliever of some note, or something like that, but front offices aren't going to love the glove, the platoon splits, the middling OBPs. Bohm was amazing in April and then for the rest of the season went right back to the same slightly above-average hitter he always is. And you're talking two years of not-super-cheap control at this point, probably like $20MM or so in total in 2025-26.

It's a fine value, but I don't think clubs are going to view him as a player with heaps of surplus value.
Felix
1:29
Jon Gray straight up for Jordan Montgomery.  Would the Rangers bite?
Steve Adams
1:29
Rangers loved Monty, but I don't see why they'd take on the (much) more expensive pitcher coming off the worse season in a 1-for-1 swap.
Angels
1:29
Sugano a possible target?
Steve Adams
1:30
Sure, reasonable enough. But we have Sugano on a one-year deal in the $10MMish range, which makes him a reasonable target for upwards of half the league.
Guest
1:31
Does the Giants reducing spending have any of you guys rethinking your Adames pick?
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