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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 11/10/23
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Steve Adams
9:00
Greetings all! I'm back after more than a month on the paternity list and happy to host my first chat since late September! We'll kick things off at 1pm CT, but feel free to ask a question in advance!
1:00
Greetings all! Glad to be back doing these. Let's get underway
mauibrave fan
1:01
I hear of a possibility the Braves would trade Michael Harris, I think that is a horrible idea!!!!!
Steve Adams
1:01
I saw one column with Jeff Schultz at The Athletic basically opining that they should be open to major trades, listing Harris as a speculative name to consider. That's not really the same as "they're actually considering this" -- and even he said within that he'd hate to see it, or something to that effect
1:02
It was basically "they could get a ton so they should listen, but I wouldn't do it" -- and it was one opinion
Twin's fan
1:02
Would Julien, Festa and Farmer be enough to pry Cease away from the White Sox?  Seems like this could address some needs for both teams.
Steve Adams
1:02
I'm not sure the Twins would trade six years of Julien for Cease straight up, let alone once you add Festa to the mix. Farmer doesn't move the needle one way or another in that deal
Guest
1:02
Bieber for Castellanos. Anything? Would the Guards take on that much salary?
Steve Adams
1:03
I'm down on Bieber's trade value but there's no way Cleveland would move him for Castellanos, who has negative value. I wrote extensively this morning on how the report that they're "open" to trading Castellanos should be pretty self-evident. The contract is badly underwater. Of course they're open to moving him.
1:04
It's not THIS bad of a contract, but they're probably "open" to moving him like the Nats are "open" to moving Patrick Corbin, heh.
Depressed Cardinals Fan
1:04
How fast will Yamamoto sign when he is posted?
Steve Adams
1:04
He has a 45-day window to sign
Guest
1:04
are the dodgers in play for Yamamoto heavily also do you think ohtani signs with them?
Steve Adams
1:05
They'll be in play for both. I find Ohtani to the Dodgers completely plausible. I didn't pick that for my picks in the Free Agent Contest -- I have the Rangers -- but there are several perfectly possible teams for all of these guys. A lot of people get hung up on our picks in the Top 50 list and in the FA Contest ... we're basically just suggesting one of many viable possibilities with those. It's all a crapshoot.
Clark Schmidt
1:06
Am I a Yankee on opening day?
Steve Adams
1:07
I can certainly see him being moved, particularly if they're looking at Cardinals bats on the trade market. There are lots of frameworks there that'd work. I can see it going either way, which is kind of a cop out, but the objective reality is that even Brian Cashman doesn't know right now if Schmidt will be a Yankee on Opening Day
Braves need pitching
1:07
The Braves have the best offense in MLB, but their starting pitching drops off a cliff after Strider and Fried (who is a FA after this year). They're toast if they fall behind in a short series. Who would be the most likely for them to target among Gray, Nola, and Montgomery?
Steve Adams
1:08
I don't think Charlie Morton is "falling off a cliff." A lot of teams would love Morton to be their third starter.

Nola and Monty seem far-fetched to me, just because I expect both to land near (Monty) or possibly in excess (Nola) of Rodon-ish money: $162MM. The Braves seemingly haven't been willing to put that down for Fried yet, so I don't think they'd do it for an external addition if they won't sign their own guy at that rate.
1:09
Gray, sure, he makes some sense -- as do plenty of shorter-term guys. If Giolito wants to do like two years and an opt-out to reestablish himself, he'd work. Stroman possibly.
Michael
1:09
Where do you think Tim Anderson signs? A contender? Rebuilder? The White Sox?
Steve Adams
1:09
I don't think he'll sign with a club that's a slam-dunk World Series contender. Second-division teams and more borderline/Wild Card contenders make sense to me. I've got him on the Marlins currently.
Say hey
1:10
How many years does Bellinger get and from whom?
Steve Adams
1:11
Years matter far less than the total. I talked about this on our podcast this week. Whoever signs Bellinger is basically saying "I think the rest of your career is worth X" -- and the years will be adjusted to fit that team's tax needs more or less. That's why we said 12 years in our Top 50 post. It keeps up with last year's trend of going super long-term to minimize luxury tax concerns, and I assume Belli is signing with a team that currently is or soon will be contending with CBT issues.
1:12
I think the entire baseball industry is wildly light on Bellinger's earning power. He's 28, the market for hitters is barren. I know the Statcast numbers are decidedly unsexy, but Scott Boras has gotten Brandon Nimmo, Kris Bryant and Xander Bogaerts all paid well more than most pundits predicted. Bellinger is the clear top non-Ohtani free agent this winter (possibly with the exception of Yamamoto). For me, it's clearly over $200MM and closer to $240-250MM. The years are generally ancillary -- could be nine, ten or up to 12-13. Depends how badly the team wants to tamp down the CBT hit.
CincyFan85
1:13
Jeimer Candelario possibly to the Reds... what the heck? Why?
Steve Adams
1:13
If they like the hitter and feel like they can trade from their surplus of infielders to acquire controllable pitching, why not?
1:14
Might just feel Candy's going to be a better value and more in their price range than the top arms on the market and thus they prefer to trade for arms. Or they're just doing their due diligence. I imagine Candelario's reps have heard from several teams who know there's very little likelihood they actually sign him.
Jace
1:14
What do you see happening with Nick Ahmed and Elvis Andrus? Do they retire or find an opportunity somewhere and if so where?
Steve Adams
1:15
Ahmed is kind of what the White Sox are looking for at SS. Cheap glove-first guy on a one-year deal to bridge the gap to top prospect Colson Montgomery
DABNEY FROM MALCOLM IN THE MIDDLE
1:15
3/55 sound about right for Stroman? Anyone with good infield defense is a good destination for him.
Steve Adams
1:15
Sure, I find that feasible. We went with two years at a higher AAV, but I don't think 3/55 is wild or anything. Dallas Keuchel got that a few years back
Rob
1:15
Everyone was light on Mets predictions.  If you had to pick one, which top tier free agent is likely to sign with them
Steve Adams
1:18
Again, on the Top 50 list we listed out that the Mets are plausible suitors for tons of players. My picks weren't in there as I didn't have time to get them together as I was coming back from paternity, but I have them on Jordan Montgomery and might end up giving them Hader too.

Not seeing tons of "Mets" picks in our Top 50 doesn't mean none of us think the Mets are going to spend any money, even if it seems that way. Anyone from the MLBTR team would say the Mets are absolutely viable fits for any top FA pitcher -- Yamamoto included. And it's not like any of us would be stunned if Steve Cohen said "hell with it" and just outbid the field on Ohtani either, ha.
Rebound candidates
1:18
whos a rebound candidate for this year? Kluber?
Steve Adams
1:18
Kluber is in his late 30s and a long ways (and several injuries) removed from his peak. I'd call Montas and Severino far more interesting rebound candidates.
Big MLBTR fan
1:18
Chances Montgomery ends up back in Stl?
Steve Adams
1:18
Perfectly plausible to me
Derek
1:19
Probably a generic question but when do we TYPICALLY start seeing bigger FA deals? Nov 20? Dec 10? Dec 20? My memory is failing me but I'm so amped up for signings to start hitting! Thanks!
Steve Adams
1:20
There's often a few notable deals (be they FA signings or trades) prior to Thanksgiving. Lots in early December when the Winter Meetings are in full swing.
Go Reds
1:20
Would the Reds have interest in Castellanos? Maybe shave $5M off each year and give them Duarte or someone?
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