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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/8/24
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Steve Adams
8:31
Good morning! Today's chat will be a bit later than usual, as I'll be spending a good chunk of the day meeting with MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald while we prep for our offseason coverage and continue working on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings and predictions. We'll get today's chat going at 3pm CT. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time!
2:46
Getting started a little early, as I may have to duck out a bit before 4pm CT. Let's get underway!
DRock
2:46
Do the Cardinals risk a QO on Goldschmidt?
Steve Adams
2:47
No, especially not with the change in direction. I think he'd likely accept. When he was on a pretty big hot streak in early September, I thought he'd played his way into the possibility with a strong finish, but he didn't have a convincing enough final weeks to get there. I imagine he'll just become a free agent with no draft compensation
Tom Kelly's blues
2:48
Resigning Santana for 1 year makes sense for Twins, no? GG defense at 1st. Always produces runs at acceptable level. Cheap. Smart!
Steve Adams
2:48
It makes some sense, but the Twins' payroll is already going to be pretty close in 2025 to what it was this season, before they make a single move. Perhaps some trades free that up, but I think a Santana reunion only becomes likely-ish if he's sitting there late in the winter like he was this past offseason.
Ray
2:48
Would the Cubs really mind if Bellinger opted out?
Steve Adams
2:49
I'm sure they're hoping he will. I don't think he does it, though.
Baby Powder Friedman
2:49
Does me gnabbing Adames and 2/3 of Fried/Flaherty/Buehler seem feasible?
Steve Adams
2:50
Outside of Ohtani and Freeman, it hasn't really been the Dodgers' M.O. to sign long-term deals in free agency like the ones Adames, Fried and (likely) Flaherty will command. I'm sure they'll be involved to an extent in the market for all of those players, but I'm not personally picking the Dodgers to land any of Adames/Fried/Flaherty.
C4
2:51
With the  announcement that MLB will handle broadcasts of Brewers, Guardians and Twins games, how much of an affect will it have on those teams payrolls for 2025?
Steve Adams
2:51
Need to see exactly what it entails for each, but I imagine they're all slated to earn less than they did on their prior deals with Diamond Sports/Bally. The Twins' beat has already reported that they'll be earning less. Likely the case for all of them.
Cards
2:52
I keep hearing Mikolas or Matz can be dealt, why? They will have to eat the whole salary basically and probably give up a prospect or 2 just to take ‘em. Why not just release the guys
Steve Adams
2:53
I don't think you need to release Mikolas at all. He's not great at this stage, but he's a durable innings eater with good command. Look at the free agent deals signed by Jordan Lyles, Kyle Gibson (both in Baltimore and St. Louis) and Lance Lynn over the past few years. Durable innings still get paid.

Matz is a tougher sell but if he were a free agent right now he'd get a big league deal for a few million bucks. Pay him down to that, and there'll be a taker.
Paul
2:54
Two dodgers questions.  What will it take to resign Teoscar Hernandez and how can they use dalton rushing.
Steve Adams
2:56
I have Hernandez in the three-year, $63MM range. Others on the MLBTR staff were a bit lighter, but we all generally seem to fall into the 50-60 range over 3-4 years. Rushing was already working in left field late in the AAA season, which might tell you a fair bit about both how they plan to use him and whether Hernandez is a realistic possibility to return.
Manny machado jr
2:57
with the news of ha seong Kim hiring Scott boras is it most likely he opts out and leaves sd?
Steve Adams
2:57
Kim was never going to pick up his end of that mutual option.
Mutual options are never exercised by both parties. The last one I can recall being picked up by both sides was Matt Belisle and the Rockies, a decade ago.
2:59
We don't know a ton about Kim's timetable for a return from surgery, so it's hard to say exactly when he'll be back and where he'll land, but I would think a win-now team with at least moderate payroll/CBT concerns like the Padres would probably prefer someone who's ready to take the field Opening Day rather than allocating notable resources to a rebound candidate who might open the season on the IL.

It's possible Kim is ready for Opening Day, but since we just don't know the timeline right now, there's not enough information to make a more informed prediction
Breslow
2:59
Do you see me retaining O'Neill? I need a right-handed bat and my infield is already crowded without counting the prospects. A QO for one more year of him would be reasonable for him and for me.
Steve Adams
3:01
I don't think the Red Sox will or should make a qualifying offer. O'Neill can get a nice three-year deal in free agency, but he'd probably accept a $21.2MM one-year deal and that's more than I'd care to pay for a year of a player with his track record of injuries and strikeouts. The ceiling certainly justifies it, and even this year's performance does as well, but it's extremely optimistic to expect him to replicate that.
Big Poison
3:01
Pirates in need of outfield help. Notoriously low spenders in free agency so it’s unlikely but what would a  Tyler O’Neill contract look like?
Steve Adams
3:01
Couple O'Neill ones back-to-back. I've got him around 3/45 in free agency.
3:02
I think that's probably too rich for the Pirates, but it's on the upper threshold of what I'd consider at least semi-plausible. They're not going to sign Alex Bregman or Max Fried or something, but they gave Francisco Liriano 3/39 once upon a time. 3/45 on TON is at least not out of the question (though I agree it's unlikely)
Johnny 5
3:03
Should the Angels get in on Soto? I know it is a long shot, but this team has got to move the needle or deal Trout. They already spoiled the Trout-Ohtani years.
Steve Adams
3:04
If you're Juan Soto, and you have the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers etc. -- all win-now clubs in the playoffs -- bidding for your services, how much do the Angels have to overpay by to make you consider it? I can't fathom him signing there. (Sorry Angels fans!)
Braves Fan
3:04
Would a short-term contract, say 2 or 3 years with an option, with a high AAV deal work for the Braves to resign Max Fried? Letting Fried walk, in my opinion, puts serious pressure to perform for the rotation that has Strider returning from partial TJ, Sale and Lopez with injury/inning concerns, Morton likely retiring, and AJSS/Waldrep not being ready for the Majors yet. If they don't resign him, who do the Braves go after?
Steve Adams
3:07
Why would Fried agree to a two- or three-year deal? He's going to get at least five, possibly six in free agency. And shortening the term only means the Braves would probably have to increase the AAV, which puts further strain on their luxury-tax situation and simultaneously makes Fried even more expensive due to the taxes they'd pay on the deal.

I'm of the general belief that if Fried were going to stay in Atlanta, he'd have signed an extension by now. He feels very reminiscent of Freeman/Swanson to me at this point.

I imagine the Braves will be in on shorter-term veterans to pair with Sale, Lopez, Schwellenbach and (eventually) Strider. Nathan Eovaldi types.
Medium Sized Mike
3:08
Could you see SF pursuing Gleyber?
Steve Adams
3:09
Sure. I don't think he's going to be all that expensive -- the free agent market does not compensate second basemen -- and he's still young-ish. I don't know that I'd pick him to land there. I like the Giants quite a bit as a Willy Adames fit, for instance, which could push Tyler Fitzgerald to second base. But broadly, there's no real reason to think Torres doesn't fit there.
Harris
3:09
Do I convince my boss to buy our Javy's contract?
Steve Adams
3:10
There's no "buying out" Javier Baez's contract. They just release him, and still pay him the money anyway. They'll do that if/when they feel they have an everyday shortstop and backup infielder who are both clearly better offensively (not hard) and defensively than Baez. Otherwise you're just releasing him and then paying another couple million bucks to bring in a veteran utility guy, which sort of just compounds the mistake of signing Baez in the first place.
Kenny Pittsburgh
3:11
Could the Pirates pursue Profar and give him a similar deal as Reynolds?
Steve Adams
3:11
No way Profar is getting a $100MM deal in free agency, nor do I think the Pirates have the appetite for another deal along those lines (unless Skenes is amenable to it)
(I very much doubt he is right now)
AL Central Casting
3:12
What would the Twins have to do to get out from the Christian Vazquez deal, and how likely are they to do it?
Steve Adams
3:13
Take on a similarly bad deal, most likely. Steven Matz?

I don't even think that'd be worth it, though. Vazquez's contract is of course underwater, but he's still an elite defender and did hit better as the season wore on.
Michael S
3:13
Any chance Greinke comes back next year to get to 3000 strikeouts?
Steve Adams
3:14
Hope so. Love Greinke. He hasn't formally retired yet! But no indication he's looking to return, either. If he's willing to take a minor league deal though, I'm sure several teams would give him a look.
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