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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/21/24
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Steve Adams
8:40
Good morning! Back to the usual time slot this week after having to move things around a bit last week. I'll get going at 1pm CT but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
Oscar Gamble
12:54
Juan Soto’s contract over or under $600 million?
David
12:54
Will Soto’s contract exceed $700 million?
Steve Adams
12:55
Lots of these in the early queue, ha. I was just over 600 with our early predictions for the MLBTR Top 50 list, but I was the only one of the four of us collaborating to get there. I imagine our official MLBTR pick will land in the mid-500s, but I might still take the over on 599.9
"I dont know on 3b"
12:56
In my opinion, there is less than a 50% chance that Alex Bregman is at the hot corner in Houston next year.  The 3B FA market is pretty thin, the 'Stros don't have a solid backfill in the system and they don't have the prospect capital to swing a trade of relevance.  Could Dana and Co. get creative and sign a FA that has not historically played 3B?  Adames, Profar or Torres, etc..
Steve Adams
12:59
I find it unlikely the Astros will re-sign Bregman. They haven't spent to that extent under Crane, either in terms of years or dollars. Their offer to a younger Carlos Correa topped out around five years and $160MM, as I recall.

I would say you're underestimating Adames' earning power if you think he'll be measurably cheaper than Bregman. I have Bregman getting the larger contract, but not by a ton, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Adames actually topped him. They're close.

Profar was so bad all over the infield that he's being hidden in LF. Torres is a poor second baseman and would be worse at third.

I think looking to the trade market makes more sense. Eugenio Suarez is someone I can see being moved. Willi Castro. Brett Baty.
Juan Soto
12:59
Do the Cubs have an above 2% chance to sign me?
Steve Adams
1:01
I would put it in the 1-2% range. Can they do it? Sure. But they didn't really even try on Harper or Machado when they were free agents and have never come anywhere close to a contract of this magnitude despite their massive revenue streams. I don't see it, but I'd love to see Soto sign somewhere unexpected and prove me wrong. Go to the Rays, Juan.
Dan Sanchez
1:01
How many years will Snell get? Could he land in Baltimore for 4/130?
Steve Adams
1:02
If Snell takes four years, I think it'll be at a higher AAV than the $32.5MM you're referencing here -- more like 150 total. And I think he still has a good case for five years with an outside shot at six.
The Third Rail
1:02
Didn’t the cardinals hire someone from Cleveland today for assistant GM?
Steve Adams
1:03
Yup, and a new hitting coach. Darragh will have that news on the site shortly.
Braves fan
1:03
Max Fried - 5 years, $125MM.  Over or under?
Steve Adams
1:03
Over
Both on years and total dollars
West Coast Mets
1:03
Does Shane Bieber sign a carbon copy of the Brandon Woodruff contract?
Steve Adams
1:04
No. Woodruff signed his deal knowing he was all but certain to miss the whole '24 season. Bieber had TJ in April. He'll be back next summer. Not the same situation. I think he'll sign for two with the an opt-out or just a straight one-year with plenty of incentives based on innings and/or games started.
NJ
1:04
R Hoskins for J Montgomery?
Steve Adams
1:05
Not the worst bad contract swap I've heard, but I think the Brewers like Hoskins despite the shaky production this season and feel he can rebound in '25. (They'd probably have a good chance to fix Montgomery though.)
The Trinity of Players ( PITCHERS )
1:06
Can the Orioles get this TRIO of Players?   Resign Burnes, Sign Fried, Sign Tanner Scott.
Steve Adams
1:06
If that's your offseason expectation, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. (I'd say that to any fan looking for his to team sign an exact trio of any free agents -- let alone three of the best pitchers on the market when competition will be extremely fierce)
Cute Lady
1:07
In his Offseason Outlook, Tim listed Andrew Vaughn as a non-tender candidate. Do you agree?
Steve Adams
1:08
I agree that he should be. I doubt he will be. But Tim's threshold is generally a player having like a 10-20% chance, so I can that type of chance Vaughn is cut loose. I don't get the White Sox's fascination with him. Vaughn has been one of the least-valuable regulars in MLB over the past several years. He hasn't panned out at all as hoped, and now he's getting expensive. I'd move on.
Brian A
1:09
We know who the free agents are, but who are some of the best players who could get traded this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:10
We'll have a top trade candidate list coming out in addition to our top free agent list this year. Among the top names: Garrett Crochet, Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz and basically any veteran on the Cardinals, haha
Fred Durst
1:11
Rank the following outfielders by likelihood that they get moved this winter: Rooker, B Lowe, Yastrzemski, Garcia, Ward
Steve Adams
1:11
Yaz/Lowe are close. I'd have them comfortably ahead of the rest of the bunch, which I'd rank Garcia, Rooker, Ward.
Santander
1:11
Over Under 6-$132M
Steve Adams
1:11
Way under on both dollars and years.
1:12
Like 4/80-ish
Joc Pederson
1:12
I see my name in almost every Offseason Outlook you guys have posted.  Any chance the lack of left handed hitting power options after Soto, creates enough competition where I get a deal beyond 2 years and for more than the 12 million I made last year?
Steve Adams
1:13
The lack of good LH bats out there helps Joc more in theory than in practice. We just haven't seen the market overreact to positional (or skillset) scarcity by overpaying guys who wouldn't otherwise get that type of coin. There were basically no good hitters in free agency last year, and Teoscar Hernandez couldn't even get the three-year pact he was seeking. (Bet some teams would like a mulligan on that decision, oops)
Tigers
1:15
Just read the Ogasawara article. Seems like an intriguing pitcher. Are the tigers a good fit?
Steve Adams
1:17
I think he'll be affordable enough that you can make a reasonable case for most teams to roll the dice. Not saying he's gonna sign a minor league deal or anything, but he also doesn't feel like the type of pitcher who's going to command $10-12MM annually or anything. I haven't yet talked to any scouts about him or anything -- his posting was just approved today -- and maybe if I get some good reviews that'll change my thinking. But for now he seems like a reasonable enough roll of the dice that you could make a case for him on most clubs and I wouldn't strongly object.
Horace Shellhammer
1:18
Do you see the Giants landing a top tier Starter in free agency and if not Snell who do you think would be good fit?
Steve Adams
1:20
I don't think they're going to re-sign Snell. I could see any of Burnes, Fried or Flaherty there. Generally, I expect the Giants to be fairly aggressive this winter. Any of those pitchers, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto (not a favorite but they'll bid) ... I think they'll be more aggressive than they were under Zaidi.
Power Agent
1:21
First player to sign in the offseason will be....
Steve Adams
1:22
Someone most fans aren't excited about. It's almost never a big name. First FA off the board last year was Travis Jankowski. We've also seen Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson and Drew VerHagen in recent offseasons. No good way to predict it, but don't expect it to be someone who gets you excited
Vladdy
1:22
Percentage I get traded this offseason?
Steve Adams
1:22
Under 5?
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