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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/16/24
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Steve Adams
8:37
Good morning! Apologies for the lack of chat yesterday. Schedule is a bit off this week with Tim, Anthony, Darragh and I having several planning sessions for our offseason coverage and Top 50 Free Agent rankings! I'll hold this week's chat today at 3pm CT. As always, you can submit questions early if you prefer. I always try to grab a mix of preloaded questions and live ones submitted during the chat itself. Looking forward to it!
2:57
Let's get underway!
Jay Buhner
2:57
Would both Mitch's for Montgomery work? The salaries almost match, and it seems like Seattle would be a good place for Monty to restore value.
Steve Adams
2:58
I don't think the D-backs would want both Haniger and Garver. They already have three catchers on the 40-man roster and four outfielders (Carroll, Thomas, McCarthy, Gurriel) who they'll rotate through the OF with Gurriel seeing heavy time at DH.

Haniger/Montgomery is close on its own, but not sure why the Mariners would want Monty any more than they want Haniger. I don't expect them to deal from the rotation, and even if they did, they could backfill with a less risky arm and probably find a different avenue to offload one or both of Haniger/Garver.
Angels
2:59
What would it take land Sonny Gray and/or Fedde from St. Louis?   Do we match up?  Would Gray block a trade?
Steve Adams
3:00
I doubt Gray would waive his NTC to go to the Angels. They're further from competing than the Cardinals, even if St. Louis goes into something of a rebuild.

I also don't think the Angels should be giving up any long-term, controllable talent to get one year of Erick Fedde.
Jays in 43 parks
3:00
Jays need a 60 game catcher. Who would b the best FA catcher ... Bernhardt, Diaz, ?? At a reasonable cost ... Say less than $5 mil.
Steve Adams
3:01
I don't think any catchers outside of Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka will top $5MM, so take your pick of the remaining candidates. Barnhart will be a minor league deal. Diaz probably is hoping for a bigger role than the one you described, though no guarantee he finds it.
Tim
3:01
Woo for westburg? Who says no?
Steve Adams
3:01
I don't mind that at all as a framework of a deal, but Dipoto's comments late in the season suggested he'd prefer (once again) to not deal from his major league core in Seattle.
Mets Go Lets
3:01
With Fujinami not cracking the big league roster, does his salary affect the Mets’ luxury line? I think the Red Sox were able to avoid a CBT hit by keeping Rusney Castillo down a few year back but not sure if that changed.
Steve Adams
3:02
Yeah it counts against the luxury tax. The Red Sox did do that with Rusney Castillo, which is why the rules were changed since that effectively relegated Castillo to eternity in AAA since he'd have counted against the tax if he were called back up
NL East
3:02
Is Fried looking at Nola's extention as his starting point in negotioations?
Steve Adams
3:03
I think that's likelier to be his ceiling. Nola missed more bats and had better command with a lesser injury history. Fried is still really good, of course, and I think he'll clear $150MM in free agency, but I don't think he's going to get past Nola's $172MM.
Timothy
3:03
Do you think nasim nunez can be the nationals shortstop next season? Could he hit enough?
Steve Adams
3:03
I do not think so, no.
Gritty Tiger Fan
3:03
How about Jung or Manning to the Oakland's for Mason Miller? Who says no?
Steve Adams
3:04
I don't think Jung AND Manning gets you Miller. Certainly not only one of the two. You're either vastly overestimating the value of Manning in particular or significantly underrating that of Miller. Maybe both.
Jeff in Jersey
3:04
I am not looking past this amazing season for the Mets, but as a regular MLBTR reader, I of course am thinking about how they can improve: where are they relative to the luxury tax tiers after this season? Would it be crazy for them to target Soto AND Burnes, considering they'll need to figure out how to re-sign/replace Alonso, Manaea, Severino, and Quintana?
Steve Adams
3:05
When the offseason starts they'll be something like $68MM shy of the first threshold when factoring in their guaranteed contracts and arbitration projections (that's with me assuming a couple of fairly straightforward non-tenders). So no, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they embark on legitimate, simultaneous pursuits of both players.

Is it likely that they beat the field for both? No. But certainly not impossible.
Harris
3:06
Is Bregman worth more on the open market than whatever Crane’s personal maximum is?
Steve Adams
3:06
If the Astros are going to stick to prior norms -- not topping $151MM and/or six years in length -- then yes.
818 Pitching Guru
3:07
What becomes of a Arenado? Few teams could take his contract on, and fewer he probably wants to play for.
Steve Adams
3:08
I don't think it's true that few teams could take it on. He has three years and $74MM left on his deal. The Rockies are on the hook for $15MM of that ($5MM annually). So basically 3/59 left on his contract. His contract is actually less onerous than Sonny Gray's extremely backloaded deal.
3:09
All of which is to say, if the Cardinals taking a step back is enough for Arenado to want out (or at least to approve a trade), then I think there's a good chance he's traded this winter.
squinky
3:09
Biggest albatross contract in baseball? Baez? Rendon? Bryant? Other?
Steve Adams
3:10
Bryant is up there, but I'd probably give it to Xander Bogaerts, who just turned in below-average offense in the second season of an 11-year deal after he's already been moved off shortstop.

If the bat bounces back, he could be fine value-wise for the next few years, but I expect the end of that deal to be painful.
Ludwiggy
3:11
We know the Braves will perform better next year, but do you view them as favorites for winning the East?
Steve Adams
3:11
There's little sense predicting that right now. We don't know what their roster will look like, nor do we know how the Mets, Phillies and Nats will look. As I said before, it's at least feasible that the Mets could sign Soto and one of the top pitchers -- and still have ample appetite to add more.
For Love of the Game
3:12
What does a contract for Anthony Santander look like?
Steve Adams
3:12
I have him at 4/80
Yandy Diaz
3:12
I’m sure the Rays want to shed my contract($10 million +$12 million team option for 2026). How about replacing Goldy in St Louis, where there doesn’t seem to be a logical replacement now?
Steve Adams
3:12
I don't think the Cardinals are going to be trading young pieces for short-term veterans. They're looking to scale back payroll and create opportunities for younger players. Alec Burleson and/or Nolan Gorman will see plenty of 1B time next yer.
year
Brewers and Phillies
3:13
Could you see a trade between the Brewers and Phillies involved Devin Williams and an outfielder like Blake Perkins or Garrett Mitchell for Alec Bohm?
Steve Adams
3:14
I wouldn't give up Williams alone for Bohm, let alone Williams and an outfielder.

I am also not a big Alec Bohm guy in general. His April was awesome, but from May on he was the same guy as always... he can punish lefties, hold his own against righties, doesn't have huge power, etc.

He's not a bad player, but he's relatively limited in terms of what he excels at.
Tyler Anderson
3:14
What could Perry get for me this winter?
Steve Adams
3:15
Angels should've moved him at the deadline, although I imagine the return wouldn't have been great. Anderson is in his mid-30s, averaging under 90 on his heater, and has a pretty bleak strikeout rate. I doubt the Angels would get a prospect of any real note, especially if the new team is taking on the remainder of the salary.
3:16
If Anderson were a free agent, I doubt he'd even get anything more than the one year and $13MM on his current deal.
So... "salary relief" probably isn't the answer you were hoping for, but that's about where I'd put the value.
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