JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/1/24

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 10/1/24

Steve Adams

12:02

Hello there! Let's get underway

Guest

12:03

First off when does Bellinger have to decide on his option?

Steve Adams

12:04

Three or five days after the World Series. I would need to double-check which, but within five days of the final WS game you'll know.

StlBorn

12:04

Does Gray Arenado or Helsley get dealt this winter?

Steve Adams

12:06

Helsley seems like a very strong candidate to move. Trading Arenado or Gray would be more complicated, both because of their contracts and no-trade provisions. Arenado is still owed $59MM through 2026. Gray's backloaded deal pays him $65MM over the next two seasons (including a $5MM buyout on a 2027 option)

Rox

12:06

Should the Rockies try and lock up Doyle now or see if he can continue his breakout into next year then sign him?

Steve Adams

12:09

They've been willing -- too willing -- to extend guys as soon as they show an inkling of success. I'd be less worried with Doyle, simply because the speed and elite defense provide enough floor that you're never going to get completely and utterly burned. It might look bad and look like an overpay, but you've got at least a high-end fourth OF even if his bat regresses.

That said, Doyle probably surprised me and beat any/all expectations I had for him more than almost any player in MLB this year. Incredible season, huge improvements in terms of plate discipline, contact skills, batted ball quality ... he just got better at everything. I was woefully wrong on his future outlook after last year, and I think the Rox would be wise to pursue something long-term with him.

Stan

12:09

If I am Skip Shumaker shouldnt I be looking for a better job than the White Sox or Reds?

Steve Adams

12:11

I wouldn't equate those two situations as being on the same level. Cincinnati's situation is more appealing. They have a better group of win-now players and an actual pathway to competing next year (especially with the Cards proclaiming a step-back).

There'll probably be some other openings that we're not expecting -- there usually are -- but the Reds gig isn't anywhere near as daunting as that of the ChiSox.

12:12

Buster Posey is giving his press conference right now and just announced that GM Pete Putila is moving to a new role. Posey will hire a new general manager

So that's the top two baseball ops decisionmakers in San Francisco now out, though it sounds like Putila might be offered another role within the org.

Doug

12:13

thoughts on Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery? No way they can keep him next year, right?

Steve Adams

12:16

I texted a transcript of his comments to Tim, Anthony and Darragh with the simple comment: "Holy S---, Ken Kendrick." I cannot recall an owner blasting a player so plainly and openly in public. That said, they don't have a choice but to keep him unless they can find a trade partner. It's Monty's decision, and he's not going to walk away from $22.5MM after the season he had.

Maybe they can put together some kind of bad contract swap.

Garrett

12:16

Mike Rizzo discussed the importance of adding middle of the order bat(s) for the Nationals lineup. Besides going the FA route, could they possibly fill a spot through trade? Not sure who might be available but they should have a high pick and bonus pool for the 2025 draft which should make it a little easier to deal from their system depth.

Steve Adams

12:19

Yeah, the absolutely could. He even spoke a week after those middle-of-the-order comments about how he wasn't solely referring to the free-agent level of player acquisition and that such a bat could also come from the trade market. There aren't a ton of plainly obvious heart-of-the-order bats that are going to be on the market -- certainly not the types the Nats are going to be looking for (i.e. controllable ones; they're not going to deplete their farm for a one-year rental). They'd have to be somewhat creative, but as you said, they have the system to make it work -- and lord knows they have the payroll space.

I'm working on the Nationals entry in our Offseason Outlook series right now, and we'll likely have a Top 25 (or Top 30, 40 ... some number, ha) Trade Candidates of the Offseason list before things kick off in earnest as well.

Guest

12:20

Alex Bergman should be a top target for the Tigers?

Steve Adams

12:21

Yeah I like the Breggy/Tigers fit. Wouldn't mind the Tigers pursuing a corner OF instead of or in addition to a third baseman. And obviously they need some more rotation help.

Pete Rose's Interpreter

12:21

Could you see the Mariners breaking the bank for Soto?

Steve Adams

12:21

Nope

Derek Shelton

12:21

Am I managing the Pirates next season?

Steve Adams

12:22

Ben Cherington, their GM, already he said he expects Shelton back. So unless owner Bob Nutting goes over Cherington's head and/or fires Cherington -- neither of which I expect -- then yeah, he'll be backk.

Giants chairman Greg Johnson announces that Buster Posey's contract as president of baseball operations runs for the next three years.

Weitz

12:22

Your thoughts on what caused the Twins utter collapse?

Steve Adams

12:25

A lot of injuries -- can't discount them -- and a roster that didn't have enough depth. The latter issue was a product of ownership cutting payroll, but the Twins had their share of whiffs as well. Taking on DeSclafani. Signing Jay Jackson.

The decision to tender Kyle Farmer a contract was so bizarre, especially since they knew they were going to have payroll limitations by that point. Allocating $6MM to a short-side platoon utility guy, even one who's beloved in the clubhouse as Farmer is, just seems wild when working with those payroll limitations. Anthony Franco and I talked about how we were surprised they kept him even at the time of the move last year, and at that point it wasn't even fully clear (publicly anyway) just how handcuffed the front office would be.

Maybe they expected they'd be able to trade him to a shortstop-needy team? I don't know, but that move confused me last November, and by the time the season rolled around it looked like a glaring, glaring misstep.

12:27

Not a knock on Farmer, just objectively speaking -- it's a puzzling allocation of limited resources.

The Twins, in theory anyway, could've aimed for a better rotation candidate than DeSclafani and/or just signed, say Michael Lorenzen, in spring training if they'd had that extra $6MM, and their late collapse (fueled by exhausted/young starters working well past their prior career workload highs) might've looked a lot different.

Losing Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Kepler, etc. for large portions of the season obviously didn't help.

Mariners

12:27

Mariners offseason should be focused on the bullpen and infield. Outfield and starters are solid

Steve Adams

12:29

Agree with this. Arozarena/Robles/Rodriguez/Raley is a fine quartet to rotate, especially with Dylan Moore around as an option to help out against lefties. Mitch Haniger will pick up his player option as well -- not that that's something the M's really want to happen.

Captain Dunsel

12:30

Jordan Montgomery for Taijuan Walker. Phillies throw in a low level minor leaguer to compensate for the extra year.

Steve Adams

12:31

Not bad. Somewhat interesting in that it'd lower Arizona's 2025 payroll but see them take on more money in '26. Prospects to balance it out or additional cash might work, sure. Depends how the Phils feel about Monty and how Arizona feels about Walker, though the Snakes know Walker quite well. Could make some sense. I have seen far worse bad contract swap proposals!

Mariners

12:32

Calling it now. Bregman and Torres to the Mariners!

Steve Adams

12:33

The Mariners haven't signed a free agent hitter for more than the two years and $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver last year. I would be flat-out stunned if they signed Bregman -- and that's before even getting into the fact that two of their top beat writers, Ryan Divish and Adam Jude, just cited multiple sources in reporting that they're not going to play in the deep end of the free agent pool.

Torres? Sure. I can see that.

HUVIE33

12:33

Do the Yankees try to resign Torres, Holmes, Rizzo or Verdugo? I can see Verdugo and Holmes since we have Weaver and Domingez but the others would leave some holes to fill.

Steve Adams

12:33

I think all four will be on new teams in 2025.

Rangers Fan

12:34

For the Rangers, I think we have 2 off season priorities. Re sign Yates as closer and get a bat for the middle of the lineup. Any chance that bat is Juan Soto?

Steve Adams

12:36

I don't agree that re-signing Yates is a top priority. In general, paying top-of-market rates for a 38-year-old closer who just had his best season (and only his second healthy one) since 2019 is a good way to get burned. He's a nice finishing piece for a win-now, big-money club that can absorb the hit if he flames out, but I'm not sure that applies to the Rangers, given the work they have to do elsewhere on the roster.

As for Soto, Chris Young said at his end-of-season press conference not long ago that the TV situation is still hanging over them to an extent. (We'll have his comments on the site at some point today.) I don't envision a monster splash for Soto, no.

Reds GM

12:36

I was just wondering are the Offseason Outlook articles just going to be for subscribers only this year?

Steve Adams

12:38

That will be the case, yes. We put a substantial amount of work into each of those, more so than most items we write for the site, and that's one means of helping to justify the effort required for those.

Johnny Ballgame

12:39

With his -4 outs above average and .529 OPS, did Taylor Walls just put up the worst season in history?

Steve Adams

12:40

It wasn't a good one! But he also only had 252 PAs. Whenever I think back to "worst season in history," I cannot help but recall this (now very old) FanGraphs post on Neifi Perez:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-season-in-recent-history/

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