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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/7/25
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Steve Adams
8:32
Good morning and happy New Year to all. Hope the holidays treated you well! I'll get going at noon CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
12:05
Greetings all -- sorry to get going a few minutes late, but let's get underway!
Pedro4eva
12:05
Masa is still a good hitter with better than a average discipline, Sox eat half his money I'm sure someone will take a flyer on him for 8-10 mil a year? Am I wrong.?
Steve Adams
12:07
He's a fine hitter against right-handed pitching who's played consistently below average defense. You're looking at a platoon DH who'll turn 32 in July. I don't think there's any world where Yoshida gets $24-30MM over three years in free agency right now. You could sign JD Martinez for a year and $10MM or so probably. You could sign Alex Verdugo to be slightly worse against righties but have some actual defensive value, and probably get him at like 1/8.

So no, I don't see a scenario where the Red Sox pay Yoshida down to 8-10 per year and find a taker.
Astros fan
12:07
The Astros have made a trade and a free agent signing. Do you think they will sign another player before the season starts or wait until the trade deadline?
Steve Adams
12:08
It's contingent on whether they can trade Ryan Pressly and/or on whether owner Jim Crane feels there's someone worth passing the tax threshold for. I don't think the latter is likely. Moving Pressly (or I guess someone like Caratini) could pave the way for another addition, but I think the bulk of their heavy lifting has been completed outside of a potential Pressly deal.
Guest
12:09
Are there any free agents starting pitchers looking to start their 2025 season at the end of May/beginning of June?
Steve Adams
12:09
Off the top of my head, John Means, Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley are all coming off major surgeries and probably opening the season on the IL
cubs360
12:09
seiya suzuki  for Dylan Cease who says no?
Steve Adams
12:10
If the Padres trade Cease, it's to shed some payroll and load up on younger talent -- not to add a more expensive corner outfielder (with a no-trade clause) who's only signed two more seasons.
John
12:10
What are the Orioles doing? I’ve been beyond disappointed with the moves so far and getting Jack Flaherty doesn’t move the needle for me. Is there still a big splash move they can make?
purpletoad1
12:11
Halfway through the offseason, what do you make of the orioles strategy regarding their pitching staff? I wasnt really expecting them to buy top dollar starters and im not expecting them to trade a prospect as highly rated as mayo for help.  But i sure expected more than morton and sugano.
Steve Adams
12:13
Lots of questions like this. I will say, I never expected the Orioles to re-sign Corbin Burnes, but their approach to free agency this offseason has still been wildly disappointing for their fans. I know some of the lack of spending in recent offseasons was attributable to the rebuild and the general lack of willingness to spend from John Angelos. But to continue in this manner, seemingly only willing to invest in one-year veterans despite an embarrassment of young position-player talent on the roster and in the upper minors, is pretty indefensible.

Eflin/GrayRod/Morton/Sugano/Kremer might be fine. It might also be a group containing mostly fourth/fifth starters who again leave the O's with a need at the deadline. I don't get the strategy. It's so, so risk-averse. I think they've had one of the most disappointing offseasons of any team.
12:14
(Excluding the teams like the Mariners, Twins, etc. who've just done ... well, nothing)
Joe
12:14
I keep hearing the mariners are on a budget restraint, but they have close to 30 million coming off the books next year, why not just take the hit this year and recoup next year
Steve Adams
12:16
They'll have Mitch Haniger ($15.5MM), Mitch Garver ($12MM) and Dylan Moore ($3.5MM) coming off the books. That's true.

They'll also owe huge arbitration raises to Randy Arozarena, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh and Bryce Miller. That alone will eat up most of the flexibility they get with Haniger, Garver and Moore departing.
Twins Fan
12:16
Is Gunnar Henderson too much to hope for in a potential Pablo Lopez trade?
Steve Adams
12:16
Yes.
West Coast Mets Fan
12:17
The media is reporting Alonso may get a deal with opt-outs. If he is not attractive now because of age how would an opt-out do for him when he will be a year or two older?
Steve Adams
12:19
We're kicking ourselves for not predicting something like 3/90 with opt-outs for Pete back on our Top 50. Every single one of us who debated contract predictions thought he'd wind up there, but it's hard to basically predict in November: "The market is going to spit on this guy, he's going to ask for too much, and he's going to go the Bellinger route." Wish we would have now, but hindsight is 20/20.

All of which to say -- this scenario was pretty foreseeable. The market has increasingly moved away from one-dimensional sluggers of the Alonso ilk -- at least on long-term commitments.

The upside of going the opt-out route would be securing a safety net (as Bellinger did) but leaving open the possibility of a 45-homer season with improved K-BB numbers. He'd also reenter the market without a qualifying offer, as players can only receive one in their career.
RoyalBlue
12:20
Is Austin Hays a low key good signing for the Royals?
Steve Adams
12:20
I would much prefer to see the Royals sign/acquire a more dependable outfield bat, but if they're up against what John Sherman is comfortable spending, then sure, Hays is one of the more intriguing low-cost OF bats out there.
John
12:21
Do you think the Tigers sign Bregman or Santander?
Steve Adams
12:22
I don't think it really aligns with the types of moves we've seen thus far under Scott Harris since he became president of baseball ops --  especially Bregman.
Old Guy
12:23
Thanks for the midday chat. What are the Reds plans? I thought they had  plenty of infielders before the Lux trade.
Steve Adams
12:25
They did and still do. I could see them turning and dealing an infielder, but it'd be a roundabout way of doing so. There's no getting around the fact that they just can't be as high on Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain as they were pre-injuries (or pre-PED suspension, in Marte's case). Lux adds some insurance there and is an affordable lefty-swinging get for a team that was one of the worst in baseball against RHP last year.
Still an A
12:25
Is the Brent Rooker deal a steal for the A's?
Steve Adams
12:27
I don't think it's necessarily a "steal" since they already had him controlled through age-32 at what would've been around $30MM-ish in total. There's a lot of time for a bat-only player's value to dwindle before they even get to the free agent years.

That said, I think it's a worthwhile investment. I don't hate the price, and even if the motivation for doing so was "crap we don't want to lose our revenue-sharing status," I still appreciate seeing teams that never spend actually splashing around a little bit and trying to make some things happne.
PIRATES
12:27
Help me please.  give me something positive about the Pirates.
Steve Adams
12:28
Paul Skenes + Jared Jones + Mitch Keller!
(With a bunch more arms coming!)
Adams Steve
12:29
I don’t understand why Santander has not gotten a contract yet. To me, he is one of the best bats available and comes off almost as a late bloomer, like a Joey Bats. I know his defense isn’t the best but put him at LF, RF, 1B, DH, he has flexibility for someone who isn’t the “best” defensively.
Steve Adams
12:33
If he's seeking five-plus years an $100MM+, I don't think it's surprising he's still unsigned. Teams in this era want the safety of not only good defense but also strong on-base skills if they're going to invest to that extent. Santander has a career .307 OBP and was at .308 in his platform year. He doesn't walk much. He's not a great defender. If the bat takes a step back at all, you're looking at a similar situation the Phillies are in with Nick Castellanos ... trying to shop a $20MM-per-year right fielder with a poor glove and minimal on-base ability.

We predicted four years and $80MM for Santander, but if I were a GM running a team, I don't think I'd offer that. Rather have him for three, with the fourth year being a necessary evil if we miss on other targets.

He's a good player right now. Don't get me wrong. There's just a lot of downside there.
Stu
12:34
Signing Verdugo would be the most Pirates thing ever.
Steve Adams
12:35
I don't really have any notes here. It would be a very Bob Nutting move.
Weekend at Bernies
12:36
If the Brewers made one final “brewer like ‘big move,” this offseason, who do you think they should target?
Steve Adams
12:38
I just don't think they'll do much of anything unless they find a way to unload a decent chunk of the Hoskins contract. I've seen plenty of people in these chats ask about Hoskins/Montgomery as a potential swap, which isn't the worst framework if the D-backs are willing to even out the slight salary discrepancy. That could open Milwaukee up to listen to offers on Civale and continue the roster shuffling.

But, in general, I think Hoskins is a pretty big anchor on anything they're trying to do right now.
HOF
12:38
What'all this ridiculous chat about Billy Wagner getting into the HOF this year. He was good, but the HOF?????? GIMME A BREAK!!!
Steve Adams
12:38
No pitcher in MLB history (min. 900 innings) has struck out a higher percentage of his opponents. Go Billy.
Prospective GM talk
12:39
I think Flaherty signs with Opt Outs.  Thoughts?
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