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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/3/23
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Steve Adams
8:28
Happy New Year, everyone! Hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday season. I'm back at it after some time off myself, and I'm looking forward to chatting today at 1:00! Feel free to start submitting questions now, and join me if you can later this afternoon!
1:02
Greetings all! Happy New Year!
Let's get this underway
BlueJayCrazy
1:02
Who is the Jay's 5th sister?'
Steve Adams
1:02
Assume this is supposed to say starter, ha
1:03
Kikuchi will/should get the nod, barring some kind of move to dump his contract. If they were able to pull that off, you can either circle back and use some of the savings to add another free agent or just go with Mitch White, I suppose. But I expect it'll be Kikuchi to begin the year.
Baseball Girl
1:04
Happy New Year!                                                                                                                                                                                   Is Biggio to the White Sox enough to get Hendricks if they're looking to cut payroll?
Steve Adams
1:06
Biggio/White Sox is a good enough fit, but I don't think it works for Hendriks. If the Sox weren't comfortable with payroll being at its current level, they wouldn't have signed Benintendi. Giving up Hendriks to get Biggio makes them worse. Giving up some upper-minors depth or bullpen help to get Biggio, though, makes sense. Asking price won't be prohibitive
Gadzooks
1:06
Do you think Grisham is a possibility in a trade for the Reds?
Steve Adams
1:07
I think the on-paper fit is good, but I doubt the Padres give him up without getting MLB-ready help back, and I don't really think the Reds are in a spot where they're going to give up someone with MORE control than Grisham has in order to acquire him and spend money on his (modest) arbitration salary.
paintingthecornerspod
1:08
Agree or disagree: There is a better chance that the Jays’ rotation finishes with a bottom half rotation ERA than a top 5 rotation ERA.
Steve Adams
1:11
Are we talking in the AL only or in the league? I don't think they'll have one of the top five ERAs in all of baseball, but in the AL? They should be better than the O's, Red Sox, Tigers, Royals, Twins and A's for sure, and I don't think it's implausible that they outpace the Angels, Guardians, Rangers....

A top-five ERA in the American League seems plausible. Manoah, Gausman, Bassitt is a really strong top three, Berrios should bounce back to an extent. Kikuchi has the tools to be a really good starter -- and has been for a few months at a time in the past -- but is so homer-prone. I still think the top of the staff could carry them though.
Dennis Ackerman
1:12
Do you think the SF Giants are done with the Correa? Or will they make an additional short term pickup?..Keep up the great work! Thanks
Steve Adams
1:13
Giants president Farhan Zaidi already said they weren't likely to reengage at this point:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/farhan-zaidi-unlikely-that-gian...

Yes, I think he's done there. I expect he'll be a Met, and if I were picking another team that'd have a hail-mary chance, I guess the Twins, since they offered 10/285 and already know how the leg looks. Still seems likely he ends up in Queens though.
doug
1:14
Will Raimel Tapia sign a ml contract or a minor league deal ?
Steve Adams
1:15
Empty batting average with a little speed and a LF/fake-it-in-CF profile with so-so defensive grades ... he's a minor league deal guy for me, but if some OF-needy team threw him like $1.5MM and gave him a 40-man spot, I wouldn't be stunned or anything.
Pacific Northwest
1:15
Am I justified in being frustrated that ownership/front office told us they were willing to spend, and they haven't spent, really? Trevor Gotta doesn't count...
Steve Adams
1:19
I think it's fair to be disappointed if payroll only ends up around 135MM. That said, the Mariners have spent money; they signed Robbie Ray for $115MM a year ago, extended Julio Rodriguez for about $210MM, extended Luis Castillo for $108MM... they let Haniger walk but traded for Teoscar who has a pretty notable salary coming his way.

I never personally believed the Mariners would go all out for someone like Trea Turner... Dipoto has said since Day 1 that he considers free agency more a complement to strong drafting, development and trades.

There's still time for them to add some pieces and make the roster look better, but if the end-of-offseason result is trading for Wong and Teoscar (and I guess Cooper Hummel), then yeah, it's fair to feel let down.
Closer MIami to me
1:20
Is Dylan Floro the guy?
Steve Adams
1:21
Right now, yeah. But the Marlins have added some late relievers in free agency in the past when their markets have kind of fizzled. Romo, Kintzler. Could go that route again... but not a ton out there by now. Guess they could roll the dice on Zack Britton
Conspiracy Keanu
1:22
So the Marlins say Segura was signed to play 3B, yet the team was also linked to other middle infielders (Rodgers) in trade rumors... do you think are they shopping Chisholm?
Steve Adams
1:24
They wouldn't sell low on Jazz by moving him coming off an injury, and they wouldn't trade their best hitter when the goal is to improve the lineup. The Rodgers talks could easily have happened before they signed Segura. They could also have come in conjunction with talks about moving Miguel Rojas elsewhere. We know they discussed Rojas in talks this past summer.

I'd be stunned if Jazz were traded.
sockpirate
1:24
Steve, is it possible the Red Sox will enter the 2023 season with only Reese Maguire and Connor Wong as available catchers?
Steve Adams
1:24
It's possible. It'd be silly, but it's possible. That's who they have right now, after all, and the free-agent and trade markets have been picked over to an extent. They should still be aiming to do better than that, though.
Ang T
1:24
Would Profar be a good candidate to play 2B for Boston with Story moving back to SS?
Steve Adams
1:25
Profar was moved to left field after developing the yips at second base, and the Padres kept him in the outfield even when their needs at second base reached a point where they gave the ghost of Robinson Cano a look.
1:26
I don't think anyone's trusting Profar to play second base at this point.
Amir
1:26
Am I crazy to think the Dodgers will actually be better this year? Muncy should be healthy and back to his regular levels. The young guys will have more time to play and should shine. We will get better offense in CF and the BP is another year more experienced. Plus, people forget how week Lux was playing prior to his injury. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
1:29
I think it's optimistic to consider this version of the Dodgers better. They've lost Trea, Justin Turner, Andrew Heaney (who was quite good in 72 innings), Tyler Anderson and Chris Martin.

I'm not sold that JD Martinez is an upgrade over Justin Turner's bat, nor that Thor and a healthy Dustin May will make the rotation demonstrably better than with Anderson and Heaney. They also won't have Walker Buehler at all this year.
Lux is better than people give him credit for and I do like him to get some of that recognition this year
1:30
The current iteration, though, is not better in my view. That said, there's still plenty of offseason left, so let's see what the Dodgers do. If they keep Bauer, that can obviously help to improve the pitching staff, but hard to say what'll happen there.
Duffy Scliff
1:30
Do you think there’s any chance Casas goes to Miami?
Steve Adams
1:32
"Any" chance? Sure. They've talked about a trade, the Marlins have pitching that appeals to the Sox. It's silly to assume it's impossible.

That said, there's a lot of emphasis being placed on a report involving one prospect name. The Marlins have probably also talked about 15-20 other top-30 prospects with other teams (maybe more) while they market their cavalcade of young controllable pitching. I don't think Casas is uniquely positioned to be on the move in these talks or anything.
Met trix
1:33
Huge payrolls can implode a team, especially in New York.  Did Cohen spend wisely?
Steve Adams
1:35
Depends on your definition of "wisely". The Mets look great for the short-term. Of course some of the longer-term outlays are going to blow up on them, but that doesn't matter to Cohen, I don't think. If Nimmo and Correa are anchors in 2030, he'll probably just spend to replace them.

The whole boogeyman of a long-term deal is predicated on the idea that ownership somehow is handcuffed by this big contract and it's the player's fault for being injured or declining at age 36. If you sign a long-term deal like that and are then unwilling to spend in the very likely event that said player deteriorates, then I suppose no you weren't spending wisely. Again, I don't think Cohen's going to operate like that, in which case, who cares how he spends?
1:36
It's not like if the Mets trotted out a $100MM payroll instead of a $400MM payroll, ticket prices would be halved, beers would be $6 and your ballpark food of preference would cost $4. The only reason fans should care about player salaries is if ownership uses them as an excuse to stop investing in the current product.
Scootie Luv
1:37
Whats the probability of Bryan Reynolds being traded?
Steve Adams
1:38
Very low, just as it's been for the past couple years. Once we get to this year's trade deadline and, more likely, next offseason -- that'll probably change.
Nationals agreed to a one-year deal with Dom Smith -- nice landing spot for him as he looks to bounce back.
Johninsc
1:39
Braves need a left fielder. Adam Duvall has been there and done that. Doesn't walk a lot hits .230 and strikes out 160 times. But please tell me why 30+ homeruns, 90+ runs batted in and gold glove caliber defense is not someone who you would see as an asset. Hoping that situation is soon resolved. Happy New Year and thanks for the chat.
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