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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/24/23
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Steve Adams
1:01
Greetings all! I'm probably not as fun as some of the player chats we've had/will have in the coming weeks, ha, but we can still discuss the recent flurry of trade activity and what's left of the offseason! Let's get rolling
Chernoff
1:02
Do the Guardians sign Andrew Chafin?
Steve Adams
1:03
Reasonably expensive multi-year deals for free agent relievers aren't really their style; I'd be surprised.
AA
1:03
Do Braves make sense for Profar?
Steve Adams
1:04
The Braves have demonstrated all offseason that they're not really planning to sign any free agents of note to multi-year deals. Plus Profar's an average hitting left fielder only at this point; I don't think he's a surefire upgrade over what they have in house.
Fenway Fanatic
1:05
Who won the Mondesi for Taylor Trade?
Steve Adams
1:06
Declaring "winners" right after a trade is a good way to have a lot of short-sighted opinions in retrospect. I'd rather have Mondesi's upside, even with the injury concerns, but there's a decent chance he's injured so much that he's a nonfactor in Boston, while Taylor has a couple good seasons in the K.C. bullpen.

I understand it from both vantage points, which is probably a boring answer, ha.
jp
1:07
The red sox only really have Joely Rodriguez for a left handed bullpen option. Do you see them adding another or using paxton in that role to limit his innings?
Steve Adams
1:10
I imagine Paxton will get a chance to start, but yeah, the injuries and total dearth of workload in recent years make it tough to give him any reasonable chance at pitching a full season in the rotation.

Market still has plenty of lefties unsigned (Chafin, Moore, Hand, Britton among them), and they have some lefties on the 40-man roster already (Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy). Granted, Murphy and Walter have been starters, but we see starters eased in as relievers all the time.

I imagine they'll add another option, given what's out there.
Reds Rotation
1:10
Brandon Williamson crack that rotation out of Spring Training?
Steve Adams
1:12
He'll have a chance to compete for it, but his command was pretty dreadful in both Double-A and Triple-A last year. The top four spots are probably locked in with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.

Luis Cessa, Justin Dunn and Levi Stoudt are competing alongside Williamson for the fifth... I would probably lean Cessa or Stoudt, personally, but that's just a gut feeling and it'll obviously come down to spring performance, health of the whole group, etc.
Bryce
1:13
What exactly are the Royals doing? This seems to be more of a rebuild than an improvement
Steve Adams
1:15
They traded a pair of impending free agents for a handful of bullpen options, and probably saved some money that'll allow them to up their offer to Greinke in the process. They weren't going to compete this season in all likelihood anyhow, and there's more playing time to go around for Michael Massey, Nate Eaton, Drew Waters, etc. now that Mondesi and Taylor have been traded.

I didn't love the return for MAT, but more because targeting command-challenged relievers (even if they have big stuff) is a pretty risk-intensive tactic. If they get a few decent seasons out of Sisk or Cruz, though, it's a perfectly defensible return.
beastModeRocco
1:15
So Max Kepler... stays or goes?
Steve Adams
1:15
I still think he'll be traded.
omg_pwnasaurus
1:16
There's no way TB is paying Glasnow 25m next year right?  I have to believe he's dealt for cost controlled talent next offseason.
Steve Adams
1:17
He took a weird, short-term extension because he badly wanted to be with the Rays. I think they'll keep him and pay him that money; it's not like they can't stomach it. They only have $57MM on the 2024 books, and while they have a huge arb class (again), a lot of those names will be non-tendered or traded.
Padres Fan
1:18
Will Machado opt out of his contract this year?
Steve Adams
1:18
Barring a major injury or some catastrophically bad season, yes.
Jesus Aguilar
1:19
How much money should the A’s give me
Steve Adams
1:19
They're giving him $3 million, which seems reasonable
A-Lou
1:19
Whatever happened to the Mets going for another relief pitcher like Chafin? All of a sudden the Cohen bank account closed up since the Correa debacle.
Steve Adams
1:20
Just because they haven't signed a reliever doesn't mean they won't. It's not like Chafin (or Matt Moore) has signed elsewhere yet. And they did spend $6MM on Tommy Pham last week, which is costing them more than $11MM when you factor in the tax hit (and more than $15MM if he reaches his incentive thresholds). They're still spendnig.
Curt
1:21
Does William Contreras stick at catcher?
Steve Adams
1:21
The Brewers have done a good job of really improving the defense of some catchers in recent years. I think that was a good landing spot for him and that Milwaukee fans will come away from the trade pretty happy.
Chaffin
1:21
Boston a possibility for me after the trade of Josh Taylor?
Steve Adams
1:23
I don't see the two as all that related. Chafin's just better than Taylor, period, and if the Red Sox wanted him they should go and get him regardless of Taylor's presence.

There's enough room for the Sox to get Chafin and still stay something like $6-7MM shy of the luxury tax even if he's at an AAV of $8-9MM (which he should be, but we'll see where his price ultimately lands)
Team Kaptain
1:23
Who plays 1st for the Reds if Votto is on the IL to start the season?
Steve Adams
1:24
Could just put Myers there, or Stephenson on days he's not starting behind the plate.
David R.
1:24
The Giants will need a SS next season after Brandon Crawford retires. What would it take to trade for SS Royce Lewis?
Steve Adams
1:26
The Twins are in pretty clear win-now mode, and the Giants don't have a lot of "win-now" pieces that align with the Twins. I mean, if you want to think huge and say "Ok let's build something around Logan Webb," sure -- but I doubt the Giants are moving Webb, and he'd obviously require more than Lewis alone in order to pry loose. I don't see the two teams as a great fit for that kind of swap right now.
Self inflicted
1:26
Whitesox really going for it without a proven 2B or RF option? Or are they waiting around for a bargain?
Steve Adams
1:27
I can buy them just going with Eloy, Sheets and Colas in the RF mix, but it's still surprising to me that they've not yet added a 2B. Even just re-signing Harrison would be a cheap, sensible move to help build up depth (while giving them a likely upgrade over some of their less-inspiring in house options)
Ducky
1:27
Can you explain the difference between payroll and luxury tax? Why are they two different amounts?
Steve Adams
1:29
Payroll is whatever you're paying a player in a current year, period. Add up the costs of the players' salaries, and that's your cash payroll.

Luxury tax is calculated based on the average annual value of those contracts. So a three-year, $30MM deal paying a guy $6MM in 2023 but $12MM in each of 2024-25 still counts as a $10MM hit.

Going based off AAV prevents teams from just deferring money down the line to dodge the tax.

Player benefits and teams' contributions to the new pre-arbitration bonus pool also count against the luxury tax.
Pedro Cerrano
1:30
Are the Marlins better or worse than they were last week
Steve Adams
1:32
I don't think the Marlins got better with the Luis Arraez trade. I wrote about it that night for our Front Office members (cheap plug).

Arraez is an undeniably good hitter, but playing him at second base, where he's well below-average, is going to give back a good bit of the value his bat brings, and it's compounded by the fact that they're now pushing Jazz to CF where he's never played and going with a left-side infield that is playing generally unfamiliar positions (though I do think Wendle can handle SS ... but, why trade Rojas in this scenario? It's weird)

Arraez would need to effectively replicate his 2022 offense without giving a ton back on defense to offset the loss of Lopez in the rotation, and I just don't see that. Even his eight home runs were a career-high (almost more than in his entire career combined), and I don't think even he can replicate a 7% strikeout rate.

Even modest regressions in power and contact are going to leave the Marlins with a good-not-elite player
1:33
I don't think they're demonstrably worse in the short-term, but they took on a ton of defensive risk to add a whole bunch of singles and betting on Arraez to repeat a whole lot of statistical peaks
1:34
Parting with Salas in the deal is also confusing.

I can see how the Marlins feel they came out ahead, getting three years of Arraez to Lopez's two, I would just like it more if they'd play him at first base where he was decent, and not shuffle their entire defensive alignment to add a bunch more singles to the mix.
Leif Breadley
1:35
What's stopping teams from signing Chris Archer and making him a closer?
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