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Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/10/23
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Steve Adams
9:16
Greetings all! Relatively busy January morning with both Cueto and Dickerson both coming off the board before I'd even made coffee for the day, ha.

We'll get started at 1pm CT and chat for about an hour, but feel free to submit some questions in advance, if you like! Looking forward to chatting, as always.
1:03
Hey everyone. Slow news day.
What should we talk about?
Lenny
1:04
What do the Mets do at 3B without Correa? Could they make a play for J-Ram?
Steve Adams
1:04
The Guardians aren't trading Jose Ramirez. Third base will go back to what it was going to be before the Mets swooped on Correa: Eduardo Escobar getting plenty of playing time and Brett Baty looking to establish himself as a big leaguer. Baty has a chance to be really, really good.
Scott Boras
1:05
Have I tainted my image with the Correa fiasco (assuming I had an image to taint)? My client is now getting a lot less money for a lot less years despite a “concern” I publicly claimed was “not an issue”.
Steve Adams
1:07
Fans who vilify Boras seem to really want this to be a thing. I don't think so. Boras negotiated over a billion dollars in contracts this offseason alone and has the longest track record of high-profile deals of any agent/agency in the sport. Players aren't going to shy away from representing him because a pair of clubs had concerns over one client's health. And of course he was going to publicly downplay it when asked; what else would he do in that spot?
Cohen
1:08
What was the point of offering a Correa a deal especially when we knew the Giants concern regarding Correa's medicals?
Steve Adams
1:10
The Mets knew the Giants had concerns. They hadn't seen the medicals themselves. The point was to try to get better. The Mets were seemingly more concerned than they expected by what they found.

I'm surprised that anything was leaked by anyone involved once the Mets and especially the Twins agreed to terms. After the first deal is scuttled due to injury, I'd think all parties would just want to keep quiet prior to the physical being finished.
John
1:10
Could the Orioles entice the Marlins to a trade involving Jackson Holliday and Sandy Alcantara?
Steve Adams
1:11
Shifting to some non-Correa questions, but we can certainly keep talking about the Correa drama
1:12
I don't think the Marlins would move Alcantara for just about anyone. They're trying to win now, and trading their best pitcher -- one of the five best in the sport -- doesn't accomplish that. Holliday was the top pick in the draft, but he's not close to enough of a headliner to pry Alcantara loose when he's signed affordably for four more years.
Braves
1:12
What could a realistic Max Fried extension offer look like? Any world where he takes it?
Steve Adams
1:14
I think I answered this a couple weeks ago... but quickly and off the cuff, he's looking at around $12MM this year in arb and probably another $18MM or so in his final arb year. So you're looking at 30MM for the arb years and then probably somewhere in the $25-30MM range for free-agent years. Gausman and Ray got 22-23 annually with less consistent track records.

I'd come in somewhere around $26-27MM annually over five FA years, so you're looking something in the $160-170MM range over seven seasons if you include 2023.
I don't think the Braves would offer that, but I think it'd probably take something in that range.
Sam Horn
1:14
Seriously, Boston can't be done with moves, right? Can't count on Arroyo to be an everyday player.
Steve Adams
1:15
I don't expect the Red Sox to be done making moves, no. They'll probably still add an infielder (sounds like they'd prefer a lefty-hitting one) and the rotation could certainly use additional reinforcements, even after adding Kluber.
rRAYS
1:16
Are the Rays working on a trade for Bryan Reynolds?
Steve Adams
1:16
I'm sure plenty of teams are "working on" trying to pry Reynolds away -- the Rays among them. I don't expect him to be moved until this summer or next offseason, though.
Michael Wacha
1:17
Do I get similar deal as Cueto?
Steve Adams
1:17
That's where I'd personally top out, but I think he can probably get two guaranteed years.
Bob
1:17
Do you have an opinion about Mattingly agreeing to work with the Nashville group well employed by the Jays?
Steve Adams
1:18
He's just an advisor; it's not like it's a high-profile position or anything. If the Jays felt it were a conflict of interest, they wouldn't have allowed it. The Stars still list Bruce Bochy and Dave Dombrowski as advisors, and both have higher-ranking positions in their orgs than Mattingly.
Jj KC GM
1:18
Marlins sends Cabrera to KC for Michael A Taylor and Nick Pratto. Who says no
Steve Adams
1:19
Marlins. MAT is a one-year rental, and while I like Pratto, he's a pretty boom-or-bust 1B prospect who doesn't have close to the same potential long-term value as Edward Cabrera
Jimbob
1:19
Any chance Brendan Rogers, Nico Hoerner, Willy Adames could be pryed away to plug the gaping hole in the red sox infield?
Steve Adams
1:20
I can at least loosely envision Rodgers being traded; Hoerner, no. Adames, unlikely. Brewers have told teams they plan to keep him, and the asking price would be significant enough that the Sox (and their fans) would probably balk and say "not worth it"
captain America
1:21
Will Machado opt out after 2023?  What will he be seeking if he does?
Steve Adams
1:21
It would take a pretty catastrophic injury or season for Machado to forgo the opt-out.
1:22
He just watched a 29-year-old Trea Turner get $300MM and 31-year-old Aaron Judge get $360MM. He'd be 31 as a free agent. With even a decent year, he could probably earn an extra $100MM. If he replicates his 2022 season, he could become the first player to ever sign multiple $300MM contracts.
Joe
1:22
What do you think the Giants do with their rotation? It seems they have 6 starters unless DeSclafani starts on DL.
Steve Adams
1:23
I imagine they'll either go six-man or use DeSclafani for long stints out of the 'pen early on. With Cobb, Wood, Manaea and DeSclafani, they're going to run into injuries. Probably a situation where all those guys make 20-25 starts but no one works a full slate of 30+
Noah
1:23
What do the Twins do next?
Steve Adams
1:24
Still think they'll trade Kepler, and with Correa back in the fold they'll probably be more aggressive in pursuing pitching help than they otherwise might've been. Can't take the foot off the gas now, so I expect they'll be active in the trade market. Like everyone else, they'll surely be calling about the Marlins' starters
Tiger trades
1:25
Did the Tigers get better value for 1 year of Jimenez vs 3 years of Soto?
Steve Adams
1:28
I understand the question, since fans tend to prefer the allure of a hyped prospect over some former prospects who've settled in as just OK, sort-of-useful pieces.

I think the Tigers probably see three mostly ready players for a roster that was devoid of actual, big-league-caliber talent last season and view this as a means of raising the floor. Maton has impressive minor league numbers, Vierling is a good defender with interesting batted-ball metrics. Sands probably catches for them this year.

It also speaks to the fact that even though Soto throws a billion miles per hour and keeps the ball on the ground, the poor command and lack of missed bats (which are related) probably weighed down his perceived value around the league. I like Soto more than most, so I'd have preferred to just keep him and see if he can take his game to another level, but I like the return more after looking at the big picture and taking some time with it than I did upon first glance.
Mozeliak
1:28
Do you think Arenado regrets not opting out seeing the money he passed up?
Steve Adams
1:30
I doubt it. He's set for life regardless, and he knew full well at the time he chose to forgo the clause that he was leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table. Maybe he didn't expect the money to go QUITE this crazy, but there's no way he and his agents weren't aware that he could've beat his remaining contract on the open market.
Mo
1:30
Signing catcher great move. Mo has done nothing else to improve the Cardinals. What's up with that?
Steve Adams
1:31
Cards have a lot to offer in trades -- although there's not much out there worth trading for right now. I'm surprised by the lack of additional activity, but there's still some notable free agents looking for a home. Andrew Chafin's a great fit for them.
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