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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/7/26
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:00
Hello everybody
Eric and I are working furiously a T100 update and all manner of draft coverage. He's running point on most things draft but I'm hammering away at college pitchers and we'll both be in Philly to cover proceedings.
2:01
For now, let's chat. My goal for today is to spend more time on guys who generally do not get asked about. Y'all can help with this, of course.
wiguy94
2:01
You asked me to check back in this week on Josiah Ragsdale and here I am.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:01
Good start!
2:02
Stock way up. Good eye, measurable power is average, which is ahead of where it was in college and a good bit better than how it looked in his debut cameo last season.
Open strider, low hands, which makes me wonder about plate coverage and high fastballs in the long run, hasn't been an issue yet
2:03
There's a little Canzone in him in how he uses the ground to generate leverage and meaningful power, even though he's not a real big guy
I would guess he's not going to grow into the same juice Canzone has these last couple years though.
Interesting fourth outfield prospect, great draft and dev win for MIL
rainingmozzarella
2:04
The Arizona Republic wrote an article a few weeks ago saying the Dbacks have seen improvements in their pitching development. Have you noticed anything similar? Are there any pitchers you feel have made a noticeable jump?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:06
Maybe modestly. I don't see any huge breakouts, but there are guys who are having good years. Sandro Santana out of the bullpen looks great. Aracena didn't come cheap but he's got a chance to start and should contribute meaningfully, good arm and a chance for a plus secondary. Curley's a fun, boom/bust arm, and I have sources who like him a good bit. I'm encouraged that Ciprian has pitched well in Low-A, even absent much CH development.
Part of the appeal of the AZ system over the winter was that they had SO MANY GUYS you'd figure one would make a big leap. We're not there yet.
mopete12
2:07
Is Alfonsin Rosario starting to put it together? From 5/5 to 7/5 he is slashing .298/.382/.612 with a 11.1% BB rate and 28.5% K rate (25.5% the last month) for a 155 wRC+ and just turned 22. Has there been any noticeable difference in his chase rate or z-contact %? In general, I have almost zero hope for high K rate minor leaguer hitters in the Cleveland system, but he has my attention.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:08
I still see him as a flawed hitter with meaningful power. It's encouraging that he's making this work at Double-A, in the sense that I feel more confident he'll get to the place we projected over the off-season.
Good platoon/4th OF feels like the ceiling though.
philly
2:08
What’s the best part of eating a roast pork instead of a cheesesteak? The sandwich itself or the smug satisfaction that you’re not a tourist lemming?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:09
Is this something the locals do? I need advice on all things Philly, I've never been and I'm flying in tomorrow.
richwp01
2:09
I know there are too many draft questions, but can you weigh in on time to MLB? Roguh approximation:
Brendan Gawlowski
2:09
Lot of guys still debuting at 25 even with the minors contractions
Oh, I see you asked a follow up about three guys
richwp01
2:09
  • Roch, end of 2027 to get feet wet
  • Emerson, end of 2028
  • Lackey 2029 if he spends 2 years developing as catcher (Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, Adley Rutchsman, Drake Baldwin, Shea Langeliers all took 3 years in minors , Dingler 4.)
Brendan Gawlowski
2:10
Those all seem like reasonable baselines; we'll know a lot more about each of them when they get to the minors.
betob
2:10
Who has more upside: Caden Scarborough or AJ Russell?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
In the rotation? Scarborough. Both could be nasty in relief if it comes to that. I'd rather have Caden overall.
Pinstripe Power
2:11
When do you start to consider kids as legitamate prospects who are performing well in the complex and DSL leagues? I know offense seems a bit supercharged, but the Yankees have a number of high performing offensive kids; Richard Matic, Wilberson De Pena, Juan Torres, Dexters Peralta, Isaias Castillo, Stiven Martinez, and Yostin Pena all with OPS near .900 and most hovering around the 1dot. Any of them guys to note moving forward?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:12
In the complexes, I care very little about their statistical production. Some of the numbers under the hood -- contact rate, measurable power -- are useful and help with the evaluation but I'm paying more attention to athleticism/tools/physical projection.
2:13
We put a guy with a 75 wRC+ in the AZ complex last year on our T100 this offseason; at the same time, there are guys with a 150 wRC+ who won't make the main section of their team lists.
The quality of play is just so low, and it's easy to inflate topline production by walking a ton, or notching base hits against bad defenses in a way that's just not at all meaningful.
K’d Cavalli
2:14
How long does a helium prospect have to struggle at a new level before you cool on them? Thinking Devin Fitz-Gerald in AA, still a semi-SSS but it hasn’t looked great.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:16
Depends on the player and depends on what's happening. In general, I'm of the mind to be very patient on guys with talent. Colson Montgomery looked awful at Triple-A for a year and then almost immediately posted 5 WAR in 150 big league games. Jordan Walker didn't hit for three years but it was always in there.
2:17
It's been ugly for Fitz-Gerald in Double-A. It's also 21 games for a 20 year old.
Way too early to adjust your priors, whatever they may have been.
Ben Lederman
2:17
*Clicking Tongs together*
Brendan Gawlowski
2:17
Been a while since he was the main character...
twelvejones
2:18
Currently, the only big-leaguers I'd consider as an 80 glove are Bailey, Witt, PCA, and Rafaela. Would you agree with this assessment?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:18
Dingler looks pretty damn good
Ben Lederman
2:19
More seriously - seems like Jonah Tong is having a tougher year this year than last. Did he spike a good year last year out of luck/level? Are his mechanics out of whack this year? To no great surprise, the Mets have me more interested in future seasons given how they've played in '26.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:19
I keep missing these follow ups, my apologies...
2:20
The fringy command/lack of an E-W breaking ball has been exposed a little bit and he's trying to develop a new pitch in real time, which is tough.
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