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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2-11-2020
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Brad Johnson
3:59
Let's start this ball rolling
4:00
For those who missed all my twitter promoting, check out Juiced Balls episode 3 with Dan Szymborski. Now on Spotify, Apple, and Anchor.
Matt
4:01
Is there a way to determine if punting a category is smart/viable beyond just some back of the envelope guessing? I play in a 13-team 6x6 roto (+OBP and QS) with seven dedicated SP slots (and 3 dedicated RP), so well over 100 SPs are rostered at all times. Since I’m definitely hammering SP early, and there are two extra categories, does it make sense to punt steals? I feel like I could grab a lot of pitching early and still put together a great AVG/HR/OBP lineup by eschewing any steals guys.
Brad Johnson
4:01
If I understand the intention of your question, no. Not ahead of time.
4:03
Punting a category usually should be a matter of circumstance. For instance, you missed various runs of closers and would rather go with elite non-closers than Joe Jimenez and Mychal Givens types.
Or you were priced into a bunch of 0 SB guys early in the draft and no longer have a way to even scrape your way to mid-way into the category without seriously sacrificing elsewhere.
4:04
So, what I'd do in your situation is have that plan available in the back of my mind.
Johnny5Alive
4:04
I turned dustin may into dinelson lamet and nick senzel in an NL only dynasty. I understand I might regret that in a few years, but for this year, was it ok?
Brad Johnson
4:04
Oh for sure
Definitely a PV win
Alex
4:04
I know you don’t play NFBC but do you ever dabble in RTSports’ contests? If not, what’s your favorite platform outside fangraphs?
Brad Johnson
4:05
FanTrax is my favorite, but I don't play any of the larger public contests.
I'm a dynasty and DFS guy
I find I'm losing most of my in between leagues
4:06
I have to make cuts every year and it's much easier to walk away from a 12-team redraft than something where I spent 5 years building my current roster
Dan
4:06
What's your ideal draft date?
Brad Johnson
4:06
1/30
Plus it's my birthday. I like to draft early. And slow!
Mojo
4:06
FG's auction calculator seems to discount SBs heavily.  Using ATC proj for 10 tm, 5x5 league, it produced $8 Mondesi, $4 Villar, ($2.2) Mallex.  Another valuation system produced $28, $20 and $11 using similar projections.  Neither is "right" but which end of SB value spectrum are you?
Brad Johnson
4:07
Well... I think the 10-team component might have something to do with it.
It probably wants you to spend a boatload on Acuna/Yelich types for your SBs
4:08
And yes, Mallex is super negative in 10-team
-2.2 is understating it
He's a fine bench player, but you can't use him regularly and compete. Just too crushing in too many categories.
Upton Funk
4:08
Who has the better sophmore season from a fantasy perspective, Vlad or Eloy?
Brad Johnson
4:09
I feel like you're setting me up to be contrary, and I usually bite. But I want Vladito until he pops
Jake
4:09
How do you feel this year about Rhys Hoskins? Realistic projections for him following last years 2nd half?
Brad Johnson
4:09
30 HR, 100 RBI, low AVG
Somewhere in that neighborhood
Not especially concerned about the slump. He's streaky like that.
And he's made some mechanical changes already
4:10
Opened up his stance a bit which should really help with that inside pitch exploit.
Dan
4:10
Is Pete Alonso the top dynasty 1B? Do you expect more seasons like last year or is that a 10th percentile outcome?
Brad Johnson
4:11
Assuming it's not a very shallow dynasty, then yes, he's probably the best of the bunch. (also, if we're not counting Bellinger)
I wouldn't say that was a 90th percentile outcome just yet, but it's quite possible
We need more information.
Generally, you should not *project* more than 40 HR from anybody.
4:12
Some exceptions, but even they top out around 45
I think I have Alonso penciled in around 38 HR which would really disappoint a lot of his drafters
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