JotCast | Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Ben Clemens Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:01

I'll try to get to as many questions as possible today, but I'm also going to try to avoid double-dipping on players, so if I don't answer yours, there's a decent chance that I already have. There are only so many free agents and already so many teams, I'll probably get to them all.

Bret

2:01

What was your projection for Shane Bieber before he stayed with the Jays? How surprised were you?

fried rice

2:01

how much you guess for bieber

Cubswon

2:01

Thx for your outstanding work! Please make sense of the Flaherty and Bieber option decisions. Extensions? Injury?

Ben Clemens

2:02

So, I had both Flaherty and Bieber on the list before they each opted in, though I actually had neither on my first pass b/c I thought they were both keeping their deals, then added them in b/c they seemed pretty cuspy

always better to model, source, and project someone if you're in between, so we put both of them in. My "will this guy opt out" model is just a tiny subset of the contract model and said both of them wouldn't, but the early rumblings were otherwise, and I definitely think both were close

2:03

I had Flaherty accepting a QO, so only barely more than he got, and I had Bieber getting the same deal as Woodruff, 2/17, 34 total

I thought Flaherty would be incentivized to opt out to clear the QO, but I suppose given how flat his market was last year even without a QO, maybe it just wasn't worth the risk

2:04

I actually thougth about marking Woodruff's deal down after Bieber opted back in. As you can see in the list, I'm lower than the market on Woodruff; I projected him as getting more money than the 10 free agents I put in front of him

I just really don't find buying post-injury starters in free agency that compelling this year

Ethan

2:04

If you're the Mets would you prefer giving Tucker the big contract or Alonso 5/$150. I think long term moving Soto or Nimmo to 1B to improve defense at 1B and then replacing them with tucker who is at least average in OF seems like something that fits into the "run prevention" message Stearns has mentioned and they don't lose that much if any offensive production by letting Alonso walk.

Ben Clemens

2:04

targeting run prevention by signing Kyle Tucker would really be something

2:05

Honestly, if I were GM'ing I think I'd probably want someone else to win the Tucker bidding

My model is more like 10/275 for him, but it doesn't do top of market premium that well, so I threw in a ton of money there because the number one name seems to get a lot of helium

2:06

basically I really like Tucker but I don't think I'd expect him to out-hit Alonso next year

and signing a guy who is average in an outfield corner just doesn't matter to me defensively

I think the teams who go all out for Tucker will actually want an outfielder, specifically, not a 1B

2:07

that's how I am thinking about it, at least

Kyle

2:07

Re: Bregman, do you see it as a straight 4/140, or do you think there are deferrals again bringing his AAV down. The 4/140 would actually be increasing his AAV on a longer deal, despite being a year older and missing 1/3 of the year to injury.

Ben Clemens

2:08

Straight. I think that he will get a raise, yes. Last year's felt like a pillow deal almost. I also think that the Sox are in a tough negotiating position here, and it would behoove them to add infield strength in a market where that is far from easy

Joe R

2:08

What did your model have on the Ha-Seong Kim opt-out? Seemed like one of the more up in the air ones among position players

Ben Clemens

2:08

yeah, cuspy as well

I threw him on the list because there was a lot of smoke from writers about him opting out

2:09

It felt like the kind of thing where it was sourced anonymously, sure, but many times by many people

Geneo

2:09

Which of Gallen, King, & Woodruff gets the most years. Do they all get a short-term, opt-out style deal?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I think King is gonna take the QO

I think it'd make sense for everyone, really

2:10

And I have both Gallen and Woodruff getting two years, but I'd be a lot more interested in extending to a third year for Gallen if it was a case of needing to stand out from teh crowd to get the deal done

I'm just terrified of Woodruff's decline in stuff. Like, it was really bad, and even with that, he pitched for a little bit and got hurt again. I think you have to bake in some very real risk of catastrophic decline. I think the downside with Gallen is probably embarrassing fourth starter, whereas the downside with Woodruff is he never plays for you

Dan S.

2:10

The Orioles could use Harrison Bader for one year while Enrique Bradfield Jr. continues to develop in AAA. But they might not need him beyond that, at least as a regular in CF. What are the chances they could frontload the 2/30 offer you're estimating, with something like 18M the first year and 12M the second? That way it'd be easier to trade him if needed, or justify keeping him as a 4th OF in 2027. How would a player feel about that kind of structure?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Players would be very happy with this structure

It's more money! Upfront!

That said, it's a pretty small difference in the grand scheme of things. If they decide to trade him next year, they could just attach money to make the same thing happen

2:12

If they were bumping up against the cap, or planning on doing so next year, then maybe you could get some shenanigans around the way the split yeras are considered if he's traded after one. But basically I'd say if you would sign him to 18 y1 12y2, you should be happy to do 15/15

a man has no name

2:13

Please sir, can the Pirates please target a hitter or two this year. And if they were to magically do this, who do you think would be their best targets

Michael - FG since 2016

2:13

Ben - great novel... err article.

Would the MLBPA or agents ever suggest going to a certain team for a pillow contract to take advantage of a stadium (ie hitters park for hitters, etc). It sure seems like my Pirates get a LOT of LHPs in FA.

Ben Clemens

2:14

I thought these were pretty enjoyable as a pair

2:15

If the Pirates wanted to sign a hitter, I guess thye'd maybe want a corner outfielder? You can't be happy with Jack Suwinski there, and I doubt they're going to move on from Horwitz or Yorke right away on the infield. Meanwhile, a good shortstop costs more than the Pirates will ever pay, so that's out, and this year isn't a great market for them anyway

so like.... Bader? He could play a plus corner, and that's very nice in spacious PNC

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