JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/22/25

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Ben Clemens

1:58

Hey everyone, let's get started a little early today

I'm gonna slow my normal chatting pace down a little, I'm feeling slightly under the weather today, but probably that just means a longer chat while I procrastinate figuring out lunch. Let's get started

The M’s only win when I’m abroad

1:59

Is it easy to run updated odds on Cal hitting 60, 61, etc? I’m going to the last two Dodgers games, and considering adding one or more Rockies games to the mix.

Ben Clemens

1:59

It sure is. I ran 62 earlier today and it looks like this:

Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 62nd HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       0.05%      0.05%
  2       0.85%      0.90%
  3       2.94%      3.84%
  4       3.37%      7.21%
  5       4.79%     12.00%
  6       5.77%     17.77%

2:00

Here's 63:
Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 63rd HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       0.00%      0.00%
  2       0.11%      0.11%
  3       0.71%      0.82%
  4       1.14%      1.96%
  5       2.01%      3.97%
  6       2.91%      6.88%

And, eh, 60, why not?

Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 60th HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       7.30%      7.30%
  2      14.80%     22.10%
  3      15.98%     38.09%
  4       9.76%     47.84%
  5       9.32%     57.17%
  6       8.02%     65.19%

2:01

So that's just the same script as before, only it's just for the last 6 games. should be pretty good

drplantwrench

2:01

happy last week of the season from another miserable angels fan :) do the angels have anything to look forward to next year? or another year of misery?

Ben Clemens

2:01

plenty of fun players, Zach Neto is probably a star.... and yeah, I don't know, this team is constructed bizarrely and doesn't feel like it's closer to making a plyaoff run, sorry

Reds Enjoyer

2:01

I don't know what to do with my hands...

Ben Clemens

2:02

I think having them out, and confusingly varied between in the air, shaking at your sides, fist pumping, etc. is optimal

nat

2:02

Remember when the Red Sox had so many outfielders that they didn't even have room for Nate Eaton?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I don't even have a great answer to that

what a world we live in

2:05

That's some of the fun of baseball. The Red Sox have the strangest roster problems, ones that mean they have too many outfielders - and yet, a 28-year-old org guy is slugging his way to the playoffs for them

Joe

2:05

Most disappointing team: Orioles or Atlanta?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm actually debating this question for a podcast segment I'm doing soon. I'm curious what you guys think

Most disappointing team?

Orioles (54% | 94 votes)

Braves (44.3% | 77 votes)

Other (specify in chat) (1.7% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 174

The M’s only win when I’m abroad

2:05

Thanks so much for doing these weekly chats, Ben! So much awesome baseball content comes out of these every week!

Ben Clemens

2:06

I'm happy to do them, I think they're pretty dang fun

Steven

2:06

I'm out of playoffs for this year and looking at my keeper options. Which of these SPs do you have the most excitement for next year: Mclean, Messick, or Logan Henderson?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Gimme McLean, the one who has done it most at the big league level. I mean, would you be surprised if he just kept doing it?

Taker55

2:06

Am I the only one who kind of roots against domed roof teams in October? I need the cold weather energy to get the full vibe

Ben Clemens

2:06

You are definitely not the only one, I love autumn leaves and baseball

2:07

unfortunately that argues against my home city, where there's basically no autumn, but look, outdoor baseball is still great

Pistol Pete

2:07

How could the most disappointing team possibly not be the Mets? They've disappointed fans nightly for three months. Atlanta and Baltimore at least got the losing out of the way early.

drplantwrench

2:07

as always, my most disappointing team will be the angels <3

Ben Clemens

2:08

It's hard to pick the Mets when they might easily make the playoffs.... but fair

Oaktown Blues

2:08

Did you end up going to an A's game at SHP, and if so, what did you think?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I didn't :(. I talked a big game but then at the end of the day I never got out there. Not pleased about it, to be honest, and next year I'm just going to go early in the season to make up for it

2:09

this was a rough year for traveling to watch baseball for me, not even any minor league games for the first time in a while. I just had a ton of fun trips that were non-baseball-related and didn't feel like squeezing in extra baseball trips when I spend so much time watching baseball as it is

Steven

2:09

Bigger loss for their team: Woodruff or Will Smith?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Will Smith for me

2:10

I'm still not 100% sure I think Woodruff is all the way back, whereas losing Smith turns catcher from a huge edge to a big hole for the Dodgers

Lowe Distribution System

2:10

Make your wild guesses: AL Central title, AL 2nd and 3rd WC, NL 3rd WC

Ben Clemens

2:11

My guesses are boring, I hate to say: Tigers, Sox, Astros, Mets

I hate it

and I'm with our odds that it's pretty close on all the spots

but eh, I'm boring!

Lowe Distribution System

2:11

Do you agree with Fangraphs that the Mariners are the favorite to win the World Series? And pretty substantially so?

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