JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/20/21

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Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

I'm starting up a few minutes early, and will keep this one short, as I'm on the road at the moment as part of a multi-weekend, multi-state wedding trip (two weddings in two weekends)

Inaccessible Rail

1:59

Most disappointing 2021: Twins? Padres? Someone else?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Definitely the Twins for me. The Padres' swoon is obviously not fun, but they got a lot of fun moments out of the season, you can look to the future, and it's understandable to not be GREAT given their intermittent injury problems

The Twins just came out of the gate bad and never came out of the dive

Ed H

2:01

Shane Bieber is pitching rehab starts in the minors. Is there any point in having him do that?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I think so. Not that it's necessarily a lot different than throwing live BP, but re-establishing a feel for pitching to opponents in something that feels like a game is

Larry

2:01

Who wins the NL West?

Ben Clemens

2:02

My heart says the Giants, my head (and now our playoff odds) say the Dodgers

It's a true toss-up though. I just think it would be a lot more fun for the Giants to win (plus I live in SF so that would be cool)

Kyle Seager

2:02

Am I still in Seattle or on another team in 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I lean 'still in Seattle'

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen

2:03

Hi Ben. When the White Sox acquired Kimbrel, I wondered if their best usage of Hendricks and him would be to put Kimbrel in the 9th, and use Kendricks as the multi-inning, high leverage guy (similar to how the Brewers used to use Hader). Do you think that would have been a better use of their talents?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Maybe, but not by enough to change things that are working

Hendriks is still their highest-leverage reliever on average (I wrote about him today and so looked at a bunch of these numbers)

And he's absolutely shoving. Maybe it's worth it to fix Kimbrel, b/c he's been very up and down

Michael Scott

2:04

The Braves are -7 in luck while the Phil’s are +3, which is the reason for the close race. This is mainly due to the Braves being one of the worst teams in high leverage. Is this just random, or is it a problem with too many one dimensional sluggers?

Ben Clemens

2:05

It's largely random, but I do think that having batters with meaningful platoon splits hurts, and also lefties have historically had worse clutch scores b/c opponents bring in LOOGY's more in high leverage spot

spots*

I haven't looked into the Braves specifically, but my default assumption on a gap of that size is mostly luck but a tiny bit of signal

Jack

2:05

What happens first: the Mariners making the playoffs or the 2023 all star game in Seattle?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I have to bet the All Star game, just because this is asking if the Mariners will make the playoffs next year and the ALW will be tough again

Ben

2:06

Assuming no CBA changes to the process, do the Astros offer Verlander a qualifying offer? Does he take it?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yes and yes

er, sorry

Yes and no

They will offer it to him, he will decline it

I read the question as 'will he decline it' at first

Mi Nombre

2:06

Josh Hader's +4.68 WPA trails only Scherzer's +4.79 in the NL with a sizable gap down to Woodruff (+3.42) in 3rd. Should Hader be getting more CY love? At least some 5th place votes?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'm more into WPA for MVP stuff than Cy Young. Cy Young is for the best pitcher, and the best pitcher is the one who's best, not who came in in the biggest spots or whatever

Inaccessible Rail

2:08

I sometimes think that WPA is a stat not used enough in thinking about end of season awards. I realize that there are some obvious problems with WPA and that it's likely not a repeatable skill, but it does reflect what actually happened, which is what really matters to me. This year the most likely MVP candidates are all among the WPA leaders, but that's not always the case.

Ben Clemens

2:08

In that vein!

I like it for MVP consideration for that reason. People will dispute things about WPA (hitting a 2-run homer in a game you win 3-2 is worth a different amount based on when you hit it) but I really like it as a statistic

2:09

All you can ask a player is to do their most to win the game based on the spot they come up in

So maybe WPA/LI or something?

Mi Nombre

2:09

I prefer everything about FanGraphs WAR to BRef's version except UZR. Is there an easy way to plug in DRS for the defensive component on the FG leaderboards?

Ben Clemens

2:10

There is not, but we are internally discussing some defensive changes

And I think you will like what we end up with