JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/11/23

Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody

Sorry I'm late, just got back from a dog walk, but let's kick things off right away

Mike

2:02

...and there goes the last reason to tune into Yankee games this year.

Ben Clemens

2:03

Yeah, what a bummer. I wouldn't go quite that far, I'm still really enjoying watching Volpe and Judge, but yeah, what a sad ending to a sad season

TroubleDad

2:03

Hi Ben! Long-time listener, first time caller. With the news that Mike Trout might be on the block, what are your thoughts on his trade value? With a chronic back injury and a history of getting into only 100-110 games per season as he enters his decline phase, his contract is upside down (7 years, $248M remaining). An optimistic ZIPS projection has Trout as ~20 WAR over the next seven years (though a single 8 WAR Troutian season will change the math), so is this a situation where a single 45 FV player gets it done? Or do you think that Moreno will eat a chunk of the contract to get back some prospect capital?

Mike M

2:03

Who trades for Mike Trout?

Ben Clemens

2:04

There are going to be a lot of Trout trade questions today I'm sure, so I'll just give you my general thoughts

2:05

I think that there are teams who would give up a decent amount for Trout with nothing coming back on the contract.

It's seven years at 35 million a year, which is obviously a huge commitment, particularly if you worry about his skills declining in addition to the injury risk

2:06

but it's just hard to get a hitter like that, so I can imagine teams that are happy to run high payrolls but don't have a lot to spend that on at the moment being interested. This is like the Giants, Yankees, maybe Red Sox

2:07

I think it'd probably be a bad deal from a pure baseball operations side, to be honest. I'm all for consolidating up for stars and being willing to accept a 'surplus value hit', but I'm really afraid of Trout's trajectory

Ignore the money; he's 31, just had his worst rate stat year, and also might not crack 400 PA this year

that's scary

2:08

But he's freaking Mike Trout, if this was just a down year and he's, say, a 5-6 WAR RF for the next half-decade, it's a huge coup

2:09

so I think that the Angels will probably trade him with the whole contract if they move him, get back not a ton, and call it a day. I didn't really think this for Ohtani -- I thought they'd prioritize big names coming back rather than moving Rendon's deal -- but it's different with Trout b/c we're talking about his own contract, not tacking on a bad one

Appa Yip Yip

2:09

Davis Schneider is obviously not going to keep hitting like Barry Bonds on steroids, but it sure seems like he's going to be better than unranked org guy, where do you think reasonable expectations fall for him?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Stay tuned

Specifically, until tomorrow

Actually, maybe don't, because I'm not exactly looking into the long-term view, but I'm writing about him tomorrow is the point

2:09

Loved your Suzuki article, but one note: it feels unfair to describe his defense as middling. SSS but all of his metrics are above average and improved since last season.

Ben Clemens

2:10

if Statcast is right thyis year, he's a +2 RF

that sounds pretty middling to me

like sure, they're above average, but not really by much

Princess Leia

2:10

Help us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi, you're our only hope...

Except for Acuna. He's pretty awesome too.

KC Pain

2:10

Better Star Wars name, Dylan Lesko or Quinn Priester?

Ben Clemens

2:11

man, I love the Star Wars name part of this chat

I'm going with Akil Baddoo, personally, but I think Quinn Priester is slightly better between these two

Insert Witty Name Here

2:11

Last year in your 11/7/22 chat, I was gushing about Bryson Stott saying my eye test was better than the projections and you replied basically that you didn’t think he was a transcendental hitter, but you still liked him and gave a money quote of “Stott is the kind of player who looks better offensively than he is.” 10 months later, he almost doubled his preseason WAR projection. I’m not taking a full victory lap here because it’s not like he’s getting MVP votes and it’s not like he’s blown away his projections (even though he’s surpassed them with one month left to play). But I’m curious to follow up on your thoughts of Bryce’s Son Bryson Stott with this season almost wrapped up.

Ben Clemens

2:12

I would say that I'm reallllly impressed with his defense

what a monster season at second

I really didn't see that coming

hitting-wise, I feel like I was on the right track, as were you

2:13

He's an above average hitter this year, and it's largely because he doesn't strike out very much

a player you'd love to have on your team

I still do think his offensive game looks better than it is; I've watched a fair number of Phillies games this year and I'm surprised he only has a .337 OBP with middling power

but man, if he can play defense like this, that's an awesome everyday starter

Derek

2:13

Mid-day dog walks are the #1 benefit of working from home imo

Ben Clemens

2:13

Oh 100%

2:14

I go out between 9:30 and 10 most days, so after I've submitted a morning article

My dog is a sensitive soul, she's a bit reactive to other dogs, and it's much calmer this time of day

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