JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/28/23

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Busy day so I'm gonna aim for an hour of focused chatting

Rick Dugo 3000

2:01

Trevor Story striking out in 1/3 of his red sox at bats and having not been an above average hitter since 2020 is fine right?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Honestly I'm not *that* worried about the beginning of his 2023, he hasn't played in a while and this is as much about shaking the rust off as anything else

2:03

to the extent that it matters, he also has 48 PA of hitting the cover off the ball in his rehab games, he just hasn't played that much yet. I'd give it more time

the broader question of whether he's an above average hitter? I mean, we have him projected for a 100 wRC+ the rest of the year, and I imagine the next few years will look like that as well

2:04

That's okay, I think? That's kind of what I expect from Story. But he's not Corey Seager, you know?

CAL

2:04

Hey Ben - has baseball ever had a more bummer week of player news (i.e. not a lockout) than last week? I can't think of anything in the past 20 years.

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think if you exclude players dying, yes

2:05

If not, no

John Bowker Appreciator

2:05

Hey Ben - Why isn’t WPA more heavily factored into MVP discussions? I fully understand that it is not a predictive measure of success (I am not a “clutch gene” truther), but aren’t we trying find who WAS the most valuable over the year anyways? It seems to me like we should care about the contexts of the player’s at bats and their contributions to the teams success in order to understand the value that they brought.

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm with you!

Lunch Angle

2:05

I'm curious about reports that Strasburg will continue to receive the entirety of his contracted salary even after retirement. I'm all for player rights but.. it seems that by choosing to retire rather continue a fruitless rehab, Strasburg is not fulfilling the terms of his contract. And if he isn't honoring his contract, why do the Nats have to? Is this the standard for players retiring while on contract, or do you suppose this is something specific to Strasburg's contract language or situation?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm assuming that the two sides came to some kind of agreement about this

2:06

I don't know the wording of his contract but this is not the standard. Thinking back to Prince Fielder, who was in a similar situation, he never officially retired despite not being able to play for some insurance and salary reasons

Benny

2:06

If a time traveler told you at the beginning of the season, that at the end of August, all 3 of the Yankees, Mets, and Cardinals would be in last place, what would your reaction have been?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I think I'd be least shocked by the Yankees just b/c the AL East is really tough, no obvious weak link

but yeah, I'd be incredibly surprised

Guest

2:06

Un-fun fact for the Angels: You could make an entire starting lineup out of their position players on the IL, and the only thing even slightly out of the ordinary would be Urshela in the middle infield.

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeesh

Sad Yankees Loser

2:07

Would love your thoughts on Rodon and Severino for the sad yanks. Their stuff looks nasty and they appear mostly healthy, what do you think that's making them so ineffective? Is it a Yankee pitching philosophy problem? Is it in Rodon's case just a wretched case of bad luck?

Ben Clemens

2:07

It really looks like bad luck to me, particularly from Rodon. When I watch him pitch I don't think 'oh this guy is washed' or anything

2:08

I'm a lot less convinced about Severino. His absolute inability to miss bats is a huge red flag imo

2:09

it basically boils down to his slider, and it's breaking less and drawing a ton less chases, and also hitters are making far more contact when they do swing

just a really bad omen

Mike M

2:09

Mookie is now the Vegas odds favorite to win NL MVP. You agree? Leads NL in fWAR, bWAR, OPS, SLG. Huge positional flexibility. Great smile.

Adam

2:09

Mookie Betts mvp?

Ben Clemens

2:09

He'd get my vote right now by a hair

2:10

The tear he's been on for the past, I don't know, half season, has just been insane

He's never had power numbers like this in his career, and it's a decorated career

what can you do but marvel

marginal utility player

2:11

Has there been any work done on measuring hitter performance based on the quality of pitcher they are facing?

You'd expect a hitters wRC+ vs "bad pitchers" (however you wish to define that) to be higher than when they face "good pitchers". But I wouldn't expect the rate of performance drop to be consistent at all across MLB hitters.

For example, anecdotally, I view Paul Goldschmidt to (obviously) be a great hitter against poor-mediocre RHPs and basically any LHP, but it really seems to me he struggles more than most great RHHs when facing "elite" RHPs (like Nola, Wheeler, Woodruff, Scherzer). This specific example could be confirmation bias on my end, but I feel like there is something to some players being "good against the best"

Ben Clemens

2:11

I looked at this once but I'm having trouble finding the article now, I guess that's the downside of writing so frequently about random topics

2:12

There's an expected performnace drop, and from what I remember, having a different drop in one year wasn't particularly predictive of the next, but I'm gonna do some more research and get back to you, potentially in article form

Sodo Mojo

2:12

Given the cost and early results does this years free agent class go down as the most expensive per win?

Ben Clemens

2:12

It seems unlikely, just because Albert Pujols exists

Byron Denniston

2:12

When will the insane refrain that a young man should “just get TJ surgery out of the way” go away? This year has been horrific for that overrated, archaic medicine! It had it’s day, still has it’s moments, but we can do better

Ben Clemens

2:13

"just get TJ" has always been kind of crazy to me

like.... it's major surgery. people don't always come back. sometimes they get TJ again

2:13

Think I saw last week that you’re out on Keibert - is this because of his poor defense? Offensively, it seems like production is catching up rapidly to consistency/quality of contact.

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