JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/26

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Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I got a little delayed in putting this up thanks to some random life business, so I'm going to let the questions pile up for a second

2:03

or rather, I'll plan on answering the first few nice and slow so that we have time for more

CT

2:03

How does Crane get anyone to take the Astros GM job at this point? Brown was handcuffed, and Click was fired after winning the WS.

If you were named the Astros' new GM, how do you approach the next few years?

Ben Clemens

2:03

okay fine, not these, this is just a programming announcement: I'm currently writing about the Astros situation, for an article tomorrow, so probably won't spend too much time commenting on it today

gotta save those ideas for primetime!

Datt Mamon

2:03

Where do you stand on the "PCA's defense and stolen bases are more valuable than Ohtani's 85 innings" debate (which I also understand has become tiresome)?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I think it's a fair way of looking at things, to be honest. And while I expect that we'll talk about it a lot more before awards season, look, what a cool thing to talk about relative to the various storylines we could have instead

'what would you prefer, elite CF defense or a half-season of an ace'

that's a cool question, better than your average mvp discussion of 'yeah but he was so good at RBI' or 'yeah but his team didn't make the playoffs'

2:06

I'm on the PCA side of things, and honestly, this is the kind of thing you can back into from the WAR math if you want to use our formulation for value

PCA has been worth 35 more defensive runs than Ohtani, and that's debiting Ohtani for playing DH and crediting PCA for great fielding

2:07

and then Ohtani has been worht 3 wins as a pitcher. these are kinda close!

if you shade PCA's defensive numbers down, which I think is quite reasonable when considering single-season defensive estimates, that's basically a tossup

but then PCA has been worth 10 more runs offensively, ignoring defense. that's a mixture of baserunning and jsut a marginally better batting line

2:08

very fun mvp race. If Ohtani were still pitching, I think I'd favor him by a decent amount. BUt it's been a month of not racking up value there, PCA continues to hit like crazy, and man, it just looks like he deserves it this year. still a month's worth of games before we have to pick but I love how good this race has been

InsertWittyNameHere

2:08

US Open time! Sad about Sinner, but at least Alcaraz is back. Going chalk? I’m waiting for that Joao (sp?) to break out, equivalent to a AA prospect or something?.

Ben Clemens

2:09

Yeah, I concur. I'm kinda into Rafa Jodar this year, and not even just b/c he went to UVa and I'm a homer. It feels to me like the US Open is a place where young up-and-comers often break out, with my not at all scientific guess being that it's at the end of the season when their youth helps most for recovery, and also when they've had the most time on the pro tour (that year) to kind of adjust to things and develop

2:10

but yeah, Fonseca is super fun too. He also brings out an electric crowd, which I love

some of the mixed doubles teams are incredible this year. Alcaraz and Serena?!? Definitely gonna watch that

oaktownblues

2:10

In your "arbitrary statistics" article last week, Zack Gelof was one of the four hitters who was above average in all of your metrics, but he was just below the 300 PA threshold you set for the weighted Z-score table. Would he have made the table if he was above the threshold?

Ben Clemens

2:11

ooh, I think I can just check that

no

2:12

he's 74th overall. not a great standout in any category, really

it's not like that means he's a bad hitter. but I don't think he's the kind of guy that exercise was looking for

Jamey

2:12

Is there a way to see Ohtani’s pitching stats? I can’t for the life of me find them on his player page…

Ben Clemens

2:13

on desktop, there should be a toggle at the top of the ribbon on the left, batting (in green) or pitching

but it looks like that's desktop only, I can't figure it out in mobile

bosoxforlife

2:14

I wish i could get back into tennis but it will never be able to reach the level it had when three of the all-time greats were beating each other up and the bench included great players like Murray and Wawrinka.

Ben Clemens

2:14

you know, it's at least possible that we are headed for a second, similar golden age

but I do agree that I am such a big tennis fan because of the many Nadal/Federer matches I watched in some formative sports-following years

TKDC

2:14

If you give credit to Ohtani for the value his versatility brings when he hits and pitches, don’t you also need to ding him for when he is a position-less DH? Does he somehow get credit for theoretical versatility?

David

2:15

Regarding the MVP race, is Ohtani’s value dinged somewhat by his taking up the dh slot and reducing roster flexibility? When Will Smith comes back for example, he’ll have to catch because the Dodgers won’t be able to ease him in by having him dh.

Ben Clemens

2:15

I mean, we give him the standard DH positional penalty, which I would argue is too high

and I have never really been a buyer of the 'give him extra credit for multiple roster spots' thing

2:16

like, WAR is not the perfect stat. it's certainly n ot the only statistic int he world I care about. but part of what I like about it is its 'simplicity', in that it takes some simple principles and applies them across the board. and having some kind of special roster construction bonus feels wrong to me in that framework

but our WAR doesn't have that, so I feel like at least within the way we define value, we're getting him right

oaktownblues

2:16

On mobile for Ohtani, you have to hit "menu" in the top right and then you can select pitching

But the "menu" in the top left doesn't pop up until you scroll down

Ben Clemens

2:16

wonderful, thank you very much for figuring out my answer for me

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