JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/22/22

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, and welcome to the chat

2:03

Slow start on my end today because I'm partway through a query that I'm really trying to finish quickly but I'll get right to it now. Thank you for your patience

Jason

2:03

Nice piece on the Rangers cleaning house. How realistic is it for them to be in the WC hunt next year, considering their run differential this year (positive) and their ability to make adds in the offseason?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think it's extremely realistic

2:04

I'm not saying likely, that's a different thing

But yeah, who would be surprised if a team with a positive run differential, some intriguing prospects, and a few major league studs added a bit in free agency and contended for the WC?

2:05

That's what is really interesting to me about this situation. The plan they came up with worked pretty well, actually. They should be good next year

2:05

How good/bad does the Montgomery/Bader trade look for each team right now? And how will we be talking about it by season's end?

Ben Clemens

2:07

It definitely looks better for the Cardinals -- to me, at least -- than it did at the time of the trade

The early returns on Montgomery in St. Louis have been great, there's no change in Bader's situation, and the Yankees are probably a bit worried about Montas

I don't think it changes the big picture, though. That is gonna depend on how the Yankees use Bader when he's back

2:07

Forgive me if I am missing something, but should batting average with runners in scoring position naturally skew higher than team average? If there is a runner in scoring position and no outs, and one of the next three hitters gets a hit, but it is the first hitter, than the average is 1-1, not one for three, or if the second guy, 1-2. Also, caught fly balls with a runner on third result in no change in batting average, instead of an 0-1. Also, thanks for the chats Ben, always enjoy your insights and inputs!

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm not sure I understand the part about the 1-3, but the sacrifice fly part is definitely true

There's also the fact that defenders have to stay near bases to hold runners on

Josh

2:09

How concerning are Jeremy Pena's struggles the last few months? Plate discipline seems not great!

Ben Clemens

2:09

I'm worried, but there's one really good thing about Pena that makes me less concerned: he's really great defensively

2:10

It's not like he just had crazy plate discipline and hitting stats early in the year and couldn't field

Most of his value is coming defensively anyway, so I'm willing to give him some lenience

barney gumble

2:10

hey Ben. when projection systems give a prospect 1 PA, is that basically the system saying it doesn't expect them to play in MLB for the season? if so, then what is the significance of the stats it populates? for example, Anthony Volpe projected for 1 PA with a .317 wOBA.

Ben Clemens

2:11

Yeha, that's our way of putting in 1 PA so you can see the stats

It wouldn't populate if there were 0 PA projected, naturally

2:12

So the wOBA is just what the projection systems see for him. The counting stats will probably all be gibberish though

jas

2:12

What's your Pujols home run over/under line?

Ben Clemens

2:12

5 more homers this year

Some Guy

2:12

How happy are you that Pujols is back on the Cards and having a vintage season on a scale of 1 to 2011 World Series?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Like 8?

I assume this scale goes to 11

It's really fun, there are no two ways about it

2:13

It's not quite up there with winning a World Series, but recapturing a little bit of that 'oh right he was so dang good' has been amazing

Sharp

2:13

Dodgers are loaded, Mets are loaded, Braves are loaded, Padres are really dangerous, Cardinals always dangerous, Phillies/Brewers dangerous. NL playoffs are going to be incredible.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I'm very excited for the playoffs this year.

2:14

In addition to just standard 'lots of great players' intrigue, there are some fun rivalries potentially in play

who wouldn't want to see Brewers/Cards or Braves/Phillies as a wild card series?

2:15

What about Padres/Dodgers in the DS?

Jacob

2:15

How much of the Yankees' slide this month do you think is just regression to the mean after a really hot start and how much actual issues the team should be concerned about?

Nicstone

2:15

Yankees panic level 1-10? It's hard to comperhend how a team so good until mid July just became the worst team In baseball over night.

Ben Clemens

2:16

I'd have my panic level around a 3; if we were calling it a concern level instead of panic, I'd maybe go 6

basically, the relief corps is a problem

This is a lot of injuries to good pitchers they're dealing with

2:17

They never satisfactorily replaced King or Green, really, and the bad breaks have continued to roll in

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