JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/17/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/17/20

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Ben Clemens

1:58

What the heck, let's get started a little early.

There are some awesome questions in the queue and I'm excited to answer them, so I couldn't just keep waiting here not saying something.

Before we begin, a quick plug for the Trade Value Series, which is going up on the site this week

1:59

Craig spent a ton of time working this up, checking it with industry sources and with us, re-ordering, sending the new list around, etc. etc. It's a huge project but a really fun one

2:00

So take some time to read it, it's really cool

With that, onto the questions

RD

2:00

Is Wander Franco’s MILB GB% a legitimate concern regarding his prospects for MLB success? We’ve seen how a low launch angle has affected Vlad Jr. so far. Both have similar ground ball rates in the minors but is there any reason to think Wander can avoid a similar struggle?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Groundball rates are a lot easier to take when you run like Wander Franco

2:01

Like, one of the biggest problems with Vlad's grounders is that he doesn't turn enough of them into hits

2:02

Even then, they weren't the end of the world -- he has a career .269 babip on grounders, which is somehow higher htan league average

I would say it's a concern, but not a huge one.

Russ

2:02

In a dynasty, keep forever league, would you rather have Correa/Bregman or Tatis Jr./Muncy?

Ben Clemens

2:03

This is really close. I think I'd take the Bregman/Correa side but I might just be too low on Tatis

I think I was the low responder to Craig when we were discussing where Tatis should go (which, spoiler, is pretty high)

Guest

2:03

What is your take on the orioles? How much of their improvement (particularly on offense) is real, and how much is fluky? Seems like the statcast numbers have them in a middle-ish range, but they, um, hit a lot of line drives?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I think it's mostly fluky, sadly

2:04

I semi buy Nunez, do buy Alberto, and think Santander is good

Alberto probably will just always be a line drive hitter

2:05

But yeah, Niko Goodrum smashed a ton of line drives for a little bit last year too

Line drives are just reallllly unstable

Andre

2:05

Hi Ben...any thoughts on Mize and Skubal? Im seeing lots of things written that the difference between the two might not be as much as originally thought. Is Skubal only a 70 fastball and that’s it?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I'm probably not the right person to ask on this, but I like Mize a good bit more

I'm just skeptical of fastball-only guys. I think Skubal's fastball could be the rare one that works well enough that it's fine

But you have to apply some discounting to that

2:07

He's overpowering minor leaguers but it's really hard to succeed in the majors as a mostly-heater guy

You can, but plenty of people try and fail

Brad

2:07

What is actually happening at those "alternate sites"?

Ben Clemens

2:07

As far as I understand, it's essentially extended spring training

Live BP, drills of various types, just generally trying to teach things for the prospects and stay in game shape for the veterans

Appa Yip Yip

2:07

Teoscar Hernandez chasing the covered .300 obp .700 slg ratio

Corollary to that, is Good Teoscar here to stay?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I mean.... no?

But hes' the kind of guy who is prone to hot streaks

So much of his value comes from slug that he naturally gets it in big chunks

2:09

He's hitting the ball even harder this year and also swinging really aggressively, kind of leaning into the Teoscar-ness of it all

2:10

If you think of him as a nice 4th outfielder who plays up against lefties I don't think you'll go wrong

But I don't think there's a 150 wRC+ bat hiding in there

Al Avila

2:10

Am I actually trying to make the playoffs or just giving Tigers fans false hope?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Casey Mize & Tarik Skubal. What to expect?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Skubal has a nasty fastball, as profiled above

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