JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/11/25

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, let's chat

James

2:00

Did Carlos Correa just need to get out of Minnesota to get his groove back?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Look, I'm not saying that's definitely the case, but we're all thinking it, right?

2:01

I don't think that I'm the only person to have thought it, and I even put it in my trade deadline winners and losers

sometimes you're just cursed and need to change things up

Dylan

2:01

I'm late on this, but is Ohtani the top trade value guy since FanGraphs started the exercise? Contenders would probably be 2008 Longoria and 2012 Trout. Would you think it's even possible for someone to match his value as just a typical player?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hmmmm, I'm not really sure, and honestly the concept of the series has changed a ton since the days it first started

It used to be more that no one even understood surplus value and DC was spreading that gospel

2:02

I feel like the early days of the trade value series were much more about 'contract is more important than you think'

but someone like Ohtani has never really existed in this series

I still think that maybe 2012 Trout is the best, because you don't have to think about the off-field aspects, whetehr your city is well-positioned to market him ,etc.

it's just like hey look, this guy's a future hall of famer and you have him forever

fanoftheman

2:02

Hey Ben! Thanks for the articles on pitcher/hitter performance vs expectations. The pitching article had me curious about what it would look like for defense.

Ben Clemens

2:02

great question!

2:03

we don't really have defensive projections that I feel comfortable using, though

Hot Corner

2:03

I'm in need of a replacement 3B for Austin Riley. Probably prefer power a bit more if it's close, but really just need best available, with most consistent daily ABs. Here are the most relevant names available. Who would you lean towards?

Noelvi Marte
Mark Vientos
Colson Montgomery
Josh Jung
Ryan McMahon
Jake Burger

Ben Clemens

2:03

Oof, tough one

I think I'd lean Noelvi but I don't feel strongly about it

Guest

2:04

Is Peralta, Miz, Woodruff, Priester good enough for a strong postseason run or is it built for the regular season?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think the top 3 are great and that they'll go pseudo bullpen in the Prister game

Oaktown Blues

2:04

The A's rookie SS has 1 K in his last 45 PAs. That doesn't sound remarkable until you remember that Jacob Wilson is on the IL. Do you think Hernaiz can be good despite mediocre AAA numbers?

Ben Clemens

2:04

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/less-heralded-hitting-prospects-i-like-in-...

2:05

Hernaiz was one of my random statistical prospect crushes last year

Do I think he's this good? I do not

Do I think that he's going to continue to do a great job of making a crap ton of contact and playing acceptable defense while doing so? I sure do

Justin

2:06

Brewers are fun and it’s great for baseball. Yet, I can’t help but think the regression monster is coming making the NL Central race really fun in Sept.

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeah, I mean, the Brewers probably aren't as good as they've been playing

because no one's that good?

2:07

NLC race being good and at a high level is really nice! I'm kind of tired of two teams racing to 89 wins, this is gonna be more fun

JDizzle

2:07

Can A Vaughn keep up his recent pace?

Ben Clemens

2:07

No, lol

I mean, Michael Baumann's article about him was delightful, and I really do buy the 'get out of CHW and get the stink off of you' boost

but, he's not THIS good

Judgement Day

2:08

On June 16th or so, in thesr hallowed halls, I jokingly asked, "Did the Red Sox break Aaron Judge?" Prior to that weekend series, Judge had a 239 wRC+ and was worth 5.8 fWAR in just 67 games. He then went 1-12 with 9Ks on Boston, i joked, we all laughed, ha ha. But in the 41 games since the start if that series, Aaron has a 135 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR. That's a well above average player, but its also a quarter season of not 'Aaron Judge'. Any concerns *now*?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Nope!

Still feeling good

He's really good

Oaktown Blues

2:08

Looking at your 2024 piece on Hernaiz. I think the Nick Allen downside risk is still there, but his max EVs are much better than Allen which gives some hope

Ben Clemens

2:08

yeah

2:09

and hey, nick allen is reasonably valuable this year with a 56 wRC+

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