JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/28/25

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

2:01

Let's just get going right away

Smokin' Jim Leyland

2:01

Any reason to panic re: the Tigers recent struggles? They're still in great shape overall and more likely to play like first half Tigers from here on out, right??? Especially with Kerry Carpenter returning yesterday. Please talk us Tigers fans down from the ledge :)

Ben Clemens

2:02

Yeah, I'm not that worried. I mean, I don't think the Tigers were THAT good, surely it's reasonable to say that they played a little above their long-term level in the first half. But Carpenter coming back is great, the pitching staff is a plus, the offense has planty of good contributors. The division is already a lock, so it's mostly about playing for a playoff bye, which is also nice

Pat Murphy Rage Monster

2:03

How upset am I going to get when we trot into October with the 23rd ranked slugging %? Nobody outside the top 10 has made the WS recently. Bring me O'Hearn

Ben Clemens

2:03

I feel like the Brewers are in a weird spot. O'Hearn, Suarez, one of the bats basically - that'd be good

2:04

The problem is that the pool of hitters is quite thin this year, and the kinds of guys available don't fit MY conception of who the Brewers like

I mean, realistically, they're gonna tread water right? They are very good at what they do, and what they do tends to be mostly stand pat while making small, value-positive moves, sometimes a buy/sell double even

Look At This Sotograph

2:04

Is there realistically any decent way to retrospectively grade your Trade Value Lists over the years? All you can do is compare the very few trades of these guys that actually occur, yes?

Ben Clemens

2:05

Yeah, it's very hard to grade THAT part of it, the 'how does the industry value players in general'

it's easier to retrospectively grade individual players, and I do that.... basically total up the value they accrued, add in the current projections, see how I would have ranked players if I knew the future up to now back when I ranked them in (say) 2022

2:06

I have used that to inform my views of position groupings, essentially

like, where I have catchers on the list is informed somewhat by how difficult they've been to rank in the phast

past*

same deal with, say, top prospects with little ML playing time

for the most part, though, yeah it's really difficult to back check

2:06

Sounds like the Padres are looking to buy/sell/reshuffle to get away from rentals or lengthy contracts while still adding major league talent, how would you rank the likelihood of Cease, Cronenworth, Arraez, or Suarez potentially being moved in a deal? Any fits stand out as win-wins to you?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Cease as part of a deal for a hitter makes the most sense to me I think

there are a lot of playoff teams who would love Cease and have, for one reason or another, some blocked offensive performers

2:08

Arraez, look, peopel talk themselves into him but as a rental, first-base-only bat, I mean, Arraez barely has a higher batting average than Ryan O'Hearn. And all the other numbers are WAY worse. That's gonna be a tough one to spin into value. Suarez? Totally, though. So maybe a Cease+ Suarez + maybe some prospects for cost-controlled ML talent?

Reed

2:08

What does your investment portfolio look like?

Ben Clemens

2:09

it's pretty boring, lot of index tracking

Guest

2:09

Do you like going to concerts? If so, what’s the most you’d pay to see an act?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I do!

I'm going to see Dead and Co in Golden Gate Park this weekend, for example

actually I think that's also the most I've paid for a ticket (unless you adjust for inflation), $300

2:10

not a big deadhead, never seen them in concert before, but how can I turn down the chance to see the most iconic SF band play a venue where I literally walk my dog most weeks

Hazmat Corntail

2:11

How do you rate Shane Baz, and do you see him taking steps to at least be a good mid-rotation arm? I’m being offered him in dynasty and am not sure just how good he really is moving forward

Ben Clemens

2:11

Eh, maybe he could, but I'm going to wait until he proves it to me

2:12

Like, he has unexciting numbers this season, his career numbers are unexciting, he's not even breaking out if you slice things into smaller samples, I don't see much more than 'solid but unexciting back-of-rotation pitcher' as a median outcome here

Pat

2:12

Great job on the Trade Value series..Love it! Looking at the trade value series & how teams (& you!) value offense over defense, does that mean WAR should be re-evaluated to increase offense/decrease defense measures as how they're weighted in WAR? Or is it just that offensive skill is "stickier"? I guess that's assuming how teams operate as the correct balance of measuring offense vs defense..which may or may not be correct?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I don't think this needs to be changed. It's not that the wins are worth less or something, they're just cheaper to acquire

or at least, that's how I'm wrapping my head around it

like, most good teams can construct a 2-3 WAR player at either CF, 2B, or SS for very cheap from their farm system, as long as you're okay with that value coming mostly from defense

2:14

call it the Jacob Young/Michael Siani corollary

Siani is a great example in that he was never a prospect, never even came close to hitting well enough to play in the majors, and still played at roughly a 2 WAR/600 pace in 2024

2:15

like, the wins are the wins. just.... you can buy that type of performance fairly cheaply. so you can't value it as much in trade, yhou know?

it's like saying people pay more for 1 calorie of delicious steak than 1 calorie of delicious brocollini (i went to a fancy steakhouse to celebrate a friend's new job this weekend so it's on my mind)

shoudl we readjust calories? nope

2:16

just means that you have to take that into consideration when considering value

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