JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/14/25

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, let's get chatting

2:01

Hi Ben, How worried about Mookie should we be? It looks like he hasn't had a stretch at the plate this bad since before his breakout 2018 MVP season and he is on the wrong side of 30.

Ben Clemens

2:01

Boy, great question, and one I've been wondering about a lot too. I mean, I am still confident that he's good. But I have to admit, I am less certain of the level of that 'good' than I've been for quite a while

2:02

I've been routinely moving him lower in rankings over the last week, and yeah, maybe I'm wrong! Mookie has proved a lot of people wrong in his career. But I'm trying to be cognizant of early signs of decline in stars, because it's a lot riskier to trade for a guy once the signs of a decline are in, and I'm definitely feeling worried about his peripherals at hte moment

Sutro

2:03

Francisco Alvarez is hitting home runs (in the minors). Might we see a call-up next weekend? It feels like the Mets remain committed to him.

Ben Clemens

2:03

I mean, they should remain committed to him. And yes, I think they'll call him back up soon

I like Torrens but he's not exactly Cal Raleigh out there

King

2:03

Hiya Ben -- seems like Matt Shaw is trending toward a AAA demotion. Feels like it'll either come this week or when the Cubs trade for a third baseman. I'm at peace with it, but what's the level of long-term concern?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I was never all that into Shaw, but I can't really tell you why. I'd say that long-term concern should be higehr than it was before the season but not red alert

but yeah, he shouldn't be getting everyday AB's right now, I don't think

drplantwrench

2:04

i feel like im the only angels fan not panicking up to my eyeballs about the Bremner pick - i think it wasnt my first choice but completely reasonable. am i crazy or is it children who are wrong?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm not really the draft guy, but yeah, I think that the amount of panic people get into over draft picks in MLB is wild

I think that it'll be years and years before we really know

2:06

Eric had a good answer about this in his draft day chat when someone asked about re-drafting the 2024 draft

'has Caglianone showed enough that he would have been drafted ahead of Bazzana' essentially

and it's like, look, we're gonna evaluate these dudes over a decade

and the uncertainty is massive

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:06

What draft pick has you most excited, and why?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Liam Doyle to the Cardinals b/c I read Michael's article about him and I want to see him run through a brick wall now

Ham Fighter

2:07

If I told you the team with the 2nd best record in MLB since 2023 had a 100 wRC+ and 99 FIP- over those 420 games, would you believe me? Defense, base running, and hitting with RISP is a helluva drug.

Ben Clemens

2:07

the Brewers are the gift that keeps on giving

Half Street

2:07

I know Eric is the draft guy, but what are your thoughts on the Nats picking Willits?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think it's fine. I think it's pretty reasonable if they didn't want a)a pitcher or b)Ethan Holliday

2:08

and well, those don't seem like crazy preferences to me. the pitcher thing I'm not sold on overall, but none of these guys are Skenesian, and cutting a decent deal and getting a top 5 talent seems fine to me

2:09

I generally don't love the underslot/spread the pool move but this year's top of the draft seems like a good time to try it. no obvious top pick, not even an obvious top duo

Oaktown Blues

2:09

With the draft underway, it feels like an appropriate time to marvel at Nick Kurtz. Drafted a year ago, and already has 200+ big league PAs with a 139 wRC+. Do you think this is close to his ceiling or will he get even better?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I hate 'ceiling' as a way of looking at guys. Mookie Betts exists. Jose Ramirez exists. For every young player, their ceiling is probably 'multi-time MVP' at a very low frequency.

but yeah, Kurtz looks great, I think that he's probably not as good as he's been playing right now, but that there's also plenty of room for imporvement left

2:11

I think that he's going to figure out how to strike out less because he really seems to have a good idea of the strike zone

the question is whether that improvement will be enough to offset the fact that he's not gonna keep slugging THIS much

2:12

I'm gonna bet on him being an upper echelon first baseman going forward. I'm figuring out exactly what that means, in the background, right now, actually

Inaccessible Rail

2:12

With ABS and the challenge system both being based on player's heights, will crouching no longer shrink the size of your strike zone?

Ben Clemens

2:12

that is correct

South Sider

2:12

Giolito has gone at least 6.0 IP in each of his last 6 starts, producing a 0.70 ERA. Obviously there will be some regression, but is he offically good again?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think he is!

he's a funny case, clearly premium talent, and just all over the place in terms of results over the years

I don't think the strikeouts are ever coming back, so his upside is capped, but I dunno, I am predisposed to believe that he is capable of elite stretches

2:14

His command looks like it's finally settling down, and so I like him as a mid rotation dude

accepting that he's gonna have some big blowup games

RANDAL GRICHUK

2:14

HELL YEAH THE CARDINALS DRAFTED THEMSELVES A REAL REDASS. ANYWAY I'M GRATEFUL FOR THE ALL-STAR BREAK, ABOUT TO THROW SOME TILAPS ON THE GRILL.