JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/12/21

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

2:01

If you have some non-baseball questions (food, board games, whatever tickles your fancy), today feels like the day for them, because I am decidedly not a draft expert and we have the real draft experts doing chats and Twitch streams and infinite articles and so on

Also, home run derby questions, because I love a good derby

Let's jump right in... with the general caveat that I'll try to hit a few draft questions where I feel like I have at least some insight

As well as regular baseball questions, obviously

Karl Diggler

2:01

Will the Philies, with one of the easier 2nd half schedules', have enough gas to catch the mets? They played 500 ball against one of the toughest 1st half schedules in the league.

Ben Clemens

2:02

The Phillies really do have a markedly easier strength of schedule the rest way -- we peg them at a .486 expected opponent winning percentage and the mets at .503

2:03

But uh, that's 1.5 games difference over 81 games (if you just multiply those winning percentages by 81)

2:04

So does that help? For sure!

We have the Phillies as a .507 true talent team, but .519 against their schedule

2:05

But I don't quite think that's enough. The Mets are 3.5 ahead despite playing without a full complement of players for the vast majority of the first half, and they're getting healthy

I'd rather get back the players the Mets were missing than get an easy schedule, basically

Gil

2:05

What pre-season thought/predication/hypothesis were you most wrong about? What are some things you're keeping an eye on going forward? Basically, most curious about what sort of reflection you're doing now that we we're in the all-star break and how it shapes your thinking going forward

Ben Clemens

2:05

I think my estimation of the Rays was probably where i missed the most

2:06

I was really down on their pitching, basically

I think I'm just not willing to buy into Rays pixie dust enough, even as it seems like they really do have a skill for it

I think I need to be a little more believing of past team records, more or less

Joe

2:06

Is this the best home run derby field since the late 90's/early 2000s?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think so. I really wish we had Tatis in it but it's going to be a blast, and having it in Coors is also going to be awesome

Appa Yip Yip

2:07

Can Robbie Ray continue to not walk people? What kind of deal is he looking at this off-season?

Ben Clemens

2:07

At this clip? Nah

2:08

But at less than 10%, let's say? I believe

His secret? More fastballs

It's not rocket science

He has a good fastball, he spots it better than most of his pitches

2:09

Last year's blowup is ignorable, imo, because of the delivery change

I'd give hiim a Eovaldi-esque deal this offseason, I could see teams going higher than that

Derek

2:09

Ohtani or the field?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Oh, easy field

2:10

Ohtani is great but there are a LOT of big power hitters here tonight and you have to not lose several head-to-heads to win

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:10

Please help, we've leaned into hosting gatherings now that our circles are all vaccinated, and we suddenly own Azul, Sushi Go Party, Pandemic, and Codenames: Duet. Recommendations for an easy-to-pickup competitive two-player game with some depth? Looking at 7 Wonders: Duel and Jaipur.

Ben Clemens

2:10

Oh, just easy to pick up and with replayability and depth? Easy :)

7 Wonders: Duel is fun but I think I'm biased against it b/c regular 7 Wonders is so much deeper

Jaipur is fun, as is Asante (very similar game)

2:11

If you're into history-ish games, we've loved Watergate, which we bought recently

One side plays as Nixon, one as the Washington Post editorial board, and it's a partially-hidden-information game that feels replayable

Bobby

2:13

Should teams apply a discount to players switching leagues when they sign them to new contracts? As a Mets fan I look at Lindor and think, he sucks and the Mets overpaid. Maybe it's because he is in a new league and don't know the pitchers. But do players generally perform worse when they move to a new league?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I don't have a good offhand answer for you, and that's something to look into

2:14

But since June 1 (to pick a random date that was easy for me to run), Lindor is hitting .262/.362/.468, a 132 wRC+, and has been worth 1.5 WAR

He's just such a streaky hitter, because he gets so much of his value from non-homer batted balls, that I think calling him a bust or a stud based on small samples is just not gonna work well

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