JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/3/2024

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, I'm going to get started in a minute or two, just finishing a few things up over here

2:02

Okay let's get started

Justin

2:02

Joey Ortiz winning NL ROY?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Hm, I wonder how gambling markets are handling his hot streak

2:04

They have him seventh, behind the two NPB imports, the two Pirates pitchers, Jackson Merrill, and Andy Pages

I'd take him over the two hitters, but yeah, even if he's out-WAR'ed Shota so far, I don't think the nice defensive 3b who's hitting well will beat the pitcher who makes every start with an ERA around 2

2:05

I think I'd probably have him fourth in my probabilistic rankings, just ahead of Jones, who looks like he maybe was not built up for a full season

Judge and Soto

2:05

Judge and Soto are the only hitters in baseball over 1.000 OPS. 2. They have both played every single game (so has Volpe). When does Judge shed "injury prone" label given he's had one 10 day IL stint that didn't evolve a dumb wall since 2021? 3. Where would you rank the two of them, at their peaks (which they are) among all-time hitting duos? (Purely hitting, not dWAR and so on.)

Ben Clemens

2:05

Well, 1's just a question

just not a question*

2:06

2 is a lot of caveats, because there are walls in baseball! He only played 106 games last year, he had injury issues of some type in the three seasons before 2021

also who cares?

that's why the label is there, but if you think it's wrong, great news! Judge is better than people think

3 that's really beyond the scope of the chat b/c I don't have a hitting duos ranking handy and I'm not ready to make one here

but, highly!

Idiotic Failson

2:06

Do you think Hunter Brown can become an above average starter? He's been pretty bad, but had some prospect hype.

Ben Clemens

2:06

I still do

2:07

I think he's always gonna have home run issues though

which is worrisome

Johny5Alive

2:07

Thoughts on Henry Davis. Worth trading a $44 Freeman who can only be kept for 1 more year for a $5 Davis that can be kept for at least 3 years in a $270 NL only. Team has not performed and ready to transition to next year.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I sympathize with the idea but I'd hope you can do better. There are good reasons to worry about whether davis's bat is good enough to secure him a lot of playing time in the long run. I know they've dabbled with him in the outfield in the past but it looks less likely given two years of ML struggles

garrett cooper

2:09

How tired of writing about the yankees is the Fangraphs team?

Ben Clemens

2:09

I personally am not, I was thinking about writing about Soto recently. But I'm sure people are tiring of them b/c it's always kinda boring to write about the same hot team too often

2:10

I think that the Dodgers will win more games in the next two seasons than the White Sox will win in the next three seasons. I could also see this with the Rockies, A’s, Angels, and Marlins. What do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Oh this is fun

Boy I think you're right

2:11

if the Sox are .500 in one of those years it's basically impossible?

but that seems so unlikely

let's poll it

Who totals more wins

Dodgers, two seasons (71.8% | 130 votes)

White Sox, three seasons (28.2% | 51 votes)

Total Votes: 181

Idiotic Failson

2:11

You have a chance to win $10,000,000 depending on you achieving a positive result between: 1) throwing an at bat against Juan Soto; or 2) getting a hit off of Mason Miller - which do you choose?

Ben Clemens

2:11

if I have to get a hit specifically? and avoid letting Soto get on base?

I think I'd pick Soto, because he didn't hit all homers in the home run derby

2:12

I'd just lob em in there and let him go wild

if my walking would count as a win.... eh, I'd probably still pick Soto

there's just no chance of me doing anything against Miller. At least I could get babip lucky against Soto

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

2:12

I find the Orioles rotation in a precarious situation because they have three above average or better starters, but the other three guys are arguably "pray the hard hits land in gloves," and this is all dependent on health. How would you ease Cade Povich into the rotation knowing he wouldn't be better than existing options for sometime? If anybody else goes down, his debut will become mandatory.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I think I'd keep doing what they're doing and letting him pitch in Triple-A

like you said, he isn't better than existing options right now

Guest

2:14

Is it just me, or has Camilo Doval been a little shaky even before yesterday's big blowup? I haven't had the "we have a great closer, the 9th inning will be chill" feeling this year...

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