JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/2/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/2/25

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

2:01

I've been diving into two topics particularly recently: starting up some work for the trade value series and doing a research project on how our pitch model grades could be used to improve or give context to projections

so I have to be honest with you, I'll be a little light on the "hot takes on a player I watched a lot of last week" front this week relative to normal

but heavier on answering process-based stuff, broad league questions, and food and board game questions if you've got em

Dallas

2:01

Oneil Cruz or EDLC? Which one would you take if you had to pick one to play for your team.

Ben Clemens

2:03

Yeah like here's one. Come on, though, it's Elly. He is three years younger. He plays a more valuable defensive position and has shown the chops to be very good there at peak. I like Oneil a lot, too, he's a fixture on trade value lists. And Elly will probably be coming down on the list, since he didn't back up last year's offensive growth yet. But I've still got EDLC comfortably ahead

Bosoxforlife

2:03

The Royals just called up Jac Caglianone and the time has long since passed for the anemic Red Sox offense to inject Roman Anthony into the lineup. How does a Rafaela for Alcantara deal sound?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Sounds like a deal that you'd make 8 days a week as Boston, and 0-ish as the Marlins, at least to me

It'd be one thing if Alcantara had a ton of dead money, but his deal is preposterously affordable

If the Sox can find someone who values Rafaela as a first-division regular, they should hit the bid immediately

2:05

Like, the guy just can't hit. He's a great defender (an archetype I've traditionally overvalued, more on that later for sure), but we have a ton of evidence that he is not going to hit. If someone is willing to dream on the minor league numbers still, I think it would be malpractice by the Red Sox front office to not trade him to that team

Jb

2:05

Who do you like more Lawrence Butler or Colt Keith. Both got big extension and have been mediocre since then

Ben Clemens

2:07

I like Butler more, but with an asterisk I suppose. The thing I always liked about Keith was that I thought he could fake second base well enough to get his bat in the lineup there, a la Brandon Lowe

As a 1B/DH, I just don't know that he has that kind of offensive juice. Like, I think he can be fine there, but not a difference maker

2:08

Whereas Butler seems like a better hitter to me, or at least a higher-upside hitter, and I think he's more likely to provide peripheral value (baserunning) given their current positions

Lord Thunder

2:08

Corbin Carroll will have an .800-plus OPS in the second half of this season. Yes or no?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yes

Nate

2:08

Time for the Jac Attack - is he ready or are the Royals desperate for offense?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yes

Walton Dilcox

2:09

Just want to say the articles I read as a non-sub are absolute 🔥. Will subscribe when some windfall occurs!

Ben Clemens

2:09

Hey, that's why we have the free ones

I'm very happy you are enjoying them

And come back when you can, the water's always warm

El Coffee

2:09

Which righty gets more saves for the Dodgers: Diaz or Kopech? Is either over 3?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Jay wrote about this today:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolste...

I think I'd take Kopech but honestly, no strong view

Darren

2:10

I was looking at an old box score of a game I went to (Blue Jays v. Mariners, June 30, 2008) and realized that despite these being two middling teams at the time, I watched four future Hall of Famers play in the same game (Halladay, Rolen, Beltre, Ichiro). That seemed like a lot, so I tried to figure out which regular season game in the last 30 years featured the most future HOFers in the lineup, but the research seemed intimidating (and multiple AI tools told me it would require too much box score research so they wouldn't bother either).

Anyways, that brings me to my Q -- can you think of a game you went to that had a notable number of future HOFers? Or want to take a stab in the dark at what non-All Star game might have had the most in recent memory?

Ben Clemens

2:10

This is fun, and I agree that the AI would not do this for you - the data acquisition is the challenge here. If you could feed it all the databases, I bet it could be solved, maybe this is a good fluff article for me in the future

2:12

Off the top of my head, though: I'd guess that it's a game involving either the Yankees of the early 2000's or Dodgers of recent vintage. Like, Kershaw started a game earlier this month and that's 4 right there (Mookie, Shohei, Freddie, Kershaw)

or, I guess late last month, right

Oaktown Blues

2:12

This horrible stretch by the A's has probably ended any notions of 2025 contention. That said, it feels like the position player core is largely in place. Do you think they can improve the pitching enough to be good in 2026?

Ben Clemens

2:12

mmmmm..... like, honestly, no

but, I agree with your diagnosis. The hitting is probably good enough

or at least, the core of it has several hits

2:14

Their pitching dev has not been good of late, which does not give me a ton of hope. But I do think that they are going about this the right way, particularly if they're willing to spend on a few Wacha/Lugo types this offseason (ha ,the A's spend, hilarious). The Royals now have a great pitching staff and they basically looked awful right up until they didn't. It's certainly in the realm of possibility, I just don't think it's likely

Some kinda Mook

2:14

Skubal about to cross 100 Ks with only 7 BBs. I remember being flabbergasted when Koji went 101/9 back in 2013. What a crazy thing.

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yeah uh

it's outrageous

Guest

2:14

joys you find after discovering the granularity of statcast search:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=91a6119f-e48a-3068...

Ben Clemens

2:15

Believe it or not, someone posted this to me on Bluesky when it happened as a potential 5 things play, and I watched it all. What in the world. Every swing in that at-bat was awful

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