JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/8/23

Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

No pithy intro, let's dive right in.

v2micca

2:00

How do the Brewers continue turning mostly offensive value catchers into complete catchers?

Ben Clemens

2:00

You have to look at the coaching here

They're just good at training catcher defense

diadem

2:01

Has Oviedo's carriage turned into a pumpkin?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I would argue that it was never quite a carriage, and I don't think he's a pumpkin now, but yeah, I definitely remember answering a few questions about him and saying that everyone should take a breath and give him some time to see if it was real, and hey, what do you know

Polo

2:02

What is the most optimistic way to view the Cardinals signing Contreras and immediately moving him to position(s) where he doesn’t provide much value? Do you expect to see the changes that the organizational clearly expects

Ben Clemens

2:02

Optimistic?

Um.... he's secretly hurt and doesn't want to look wimpy by telling people, so this is all done with his blessing

2:03

I don't know, this looks like awful process to me

2:04

I do not think there's much of an optimistic way to view this. The process is terribly wrong somewhere, so perhaps the most optimistic way to view this is that the Cardinals are going to have to have some front office accountability for such a large misstep

But tbh, Cards fans have been really down on the front office despite not much reason to be

So I would guess that the hue and cry about this won't bother them as much as it should

Broken Bat

2:04

Is Duran if RedSox up for good? Lower K, speed and Fenway power. Do you see him regressing, treading water, or building into something?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think he's up for good, yeah

2:05

I don't think he's actually this good, he's not a .471 BABIP player because no one is, but I think that he's an above average hitter who plays a good center field

really nice player, and I think that was a fair assumption for him last year, despite his struggles

I'm upgrading the bat a little bit in my head but I thought he was better than he showed last year, he hit quite well in Triple-A

Steve from Oakland

2:05

A's-to-Vegas is giving me real Giants-to-Tampa Bay or Giants-to-Oakland vibes. Are these (or other) historical parallels apropos?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeah I'm getting that feeling as well

The whole 'our land deal is complete, contingent on Vegas writing us a check for 500 million bucks' has some Mission Accomplished banner vibes to it

The Economist

2:06

What kind of contract is Matt Chapman looking at now once he reaches free agency. And how much money has he earned for himself in about 6 weeks?

Ben Clemens

2:06

Fortuitously, Dan Szymborski just wrote an entire article about this very question

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-chapman-is-a-weapon-of-mass-destructi...

2:07

Per Dan's article, he has earned himself $36 million in 6 weeks

that's not bad. I didn't do nearly so well in April

Corbin

2:07

What are the differences in the projection modes on the season standings? (FanGraphs, ATC, Season-to-Date stats, and Coin Flip)

Ben Clemens

2:07

Oh, great question here

2:08

FanGraphs mode uses our Depth Charts projections, which are a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections using playing time numbers from Roster Resource

ATC is the same thing but with ATC projections; those are essentially composites of a bunch of different projection systems weighted by historical accuracy

2:09

Season-to-Date stats mode uses weighted statistics from this year (recent games are weighted more heavily) to construct team strength

coin flip thinks every team is .500

true talent

2:10

So basically, they're four different ways of getting to how good each team is, and then we just simulate all the games from there

Scott So

2:10

Is this the beginning of the end for the Yankees? The game seems to have evolved and they don't have the right type of athletes.

Ben Clemens

2:10

Boy, that sounds like a hot take

I'm gonna say no

2:11

Weren't they pretty good last year? I do think they've done a poor job of managing depth, but that's very different from 'the game has evolved'

2:11

Can you give any hope regarding Soto's swing? It just seems broken right now. K% way up, LD% way down, IFFB% way up, Oppo% way down... He's hitting the daylights out of the ball still but there are so many pop ups and grounders to 1B around the barrels.

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