JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/5/25

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I'm fresh off a trip to Milwaukee where I caught a Brewers/Cubs game (sadly it was very normal, not a single Five Things I could find)

Slumps

2:01

How much does the decision to let guys play through slumps or sit (or get sent down in the case of Jake Burger) depend on data vs. feel? Is that the type of decision left to managers or does the FO usually make it now?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I think it depends on what you mean by 'data'

But it's definitely a combination of the two

2:02

data isn't going to pick up on whether the guy is getting discouraged and needs to clear his mind

though it might see some signs that suggest he's performing worse than he's capable of

2:03

I think that FO and managers communicate on this one and that's smart

Some kinda Mook

2:03

If the Sox are dead-set against Devers playing 1B, what’s your preferred alternative? Stick a 1B glove on Anthony and call him up? Shift Campbell to 1B for now and call up Mayer to play 2B? The solution can’t possibly be to just play Romy.

Ben Clemens

2:03

I guess I'd just call up Anthony?

I don't quite get the reluctance to put Devers there but hey, I'm not in the know, there might be a reason

Nate

2:03

A few weeks ago I asked you if you thought Maikel Garcia had figured something out, and your response was effectively "prove it, Maikel". Has he?

Ben Clemens

2:03

not to my satisfaction

David Stearns

2:03

SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Baty is being called up to replace an injured Winker. Is there any reason to think Baty will do better in his 70th chance?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I mean, no right?

Oaktown Blues

2:04

Fun little streak to follow: Justin Sterner didn't allow a run during Spring training, and hasn't allowed a run so far in the regular season. 28.2 scoreless IP (12 spring, 16.2 regular season). Quality waiver wire pickup

Ben Clemens

2:04

I love scoreless streaks

definitely keeping an eye on every pitcher on a notable one

I interviewed alltime scoreless IP record holder JP Feyereisen once, even!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-p-feyereisen-record-setter/

Pythagoras of Cascadia

2:05

In re Tatis Jr. stealing home this week: if there are two outs and there's a single runner on third, shouldn't the runner attempt to steal home if he believes that he's got a higher chance of success than the current batter's xBA?

Like, if you think you could make it home 30% of the time, should you not go for it?

Ben Clemens

2:05

not quite right b/c the batter can hit a home run

and it's game situation dependent

like.... down 2 in the 8th, you shouldn't do that

2:06

but like, in the first inning, if you're 50% likely, yeah

Greg

2:06

There's been some scuttlebutt on the strike zone having shrunk this year - or at least the shadow zone. Does this appear to be the case or just something to talk about in April/May?

Ben Clemens

2:06

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strike-zone-update-part-1-has-umpiring-pla...

there's gonna be a part 2, as well

McGreevy

2:06

When will Stl actually commit to the rebuild and give me a rotation spot?

Ben Clemens

2:06

after yesterday, maybe just now?

ronaldo monday

2:06

Devers to 1B right away is the only real option, right?

Ben Clemens

2:06

it's the only one that makes any sense to me

Oddball Herrera

2:07

Seems like at the very least Bos should be acting like they are prepping Devers for 1B, just so they don't seem desperate if they're pursuing a trade

tree

2:07

lets say u tell a pitcher just throw a strike pretend no batter is there and getting the ball in the zone is the only goal , what percentage of the time do they suceed?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I haven't looked at this for a while, but my old proxy was 3-0 counts to pitchers batting

and it was like.... 70%

2:08

it's probably a bit higher than that, b/c the kinds of pitchers who get behind 3-0 to an opposing pitcher are wild

Mr 41

2:08

Broadcasters think almost all CF are above average defensively. Which team's fans would be surprised to hear that their team does not have a top-15 defensive CF?

Ben Clemens

2:09

great question

2:10

I looked at the last three years of data to get a braoder picture than just what's going on this year

and with that in mind, I think I'll say: the White Sox

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