JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/10/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/10/21

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to a Monday chat. Kevin juuuuust finished, but if you somehow have any baseball questions left over, I'm here for you.

Dan

2:01

If the 25 best pitchers in the national league collectively decided to sit out the rest of the season (to pick an extreme hypothetical instead of hypothically injuring people) would that distort the WAR that the remaining pitcher or hitters get?

Ben Clemens

2:01

So, for our WAR at least, there are some constants

2:02

There's 1000 WAR to assign across both leagues, and we have a pre-determined split between pitchers and hitters

it's about 60/40 hitters but I forget the exact amount

So it wouldn't distort the total amount, b/c that's an exogenous thing, we just set it. But if you were the 26th-best pitcher, you'd look a lot better, b/c replacement level would fall meaningfully

Chip

2:03

Do you have any hope for Luzardo when he returns, or is he just bad now?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I have hope for sure.

2:04

I'm not really sure what the cause for concern would be so early in the year. He's given up some more dingers, and he's walking a few more guys, but neither is overwhelming, and it's been six starts

28 innings only

I'm good with waiting quiiiiite a lot longer before I say he's bad now

Easy E

2:05

Which SPs (if any) do you like for this week? Cueto @PIT, T Anderson vs SF, D German @BAL or Heaney @HOU

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm interested in Cueto, had him in fantasy, but I decided to drop him and re-evaluate after his first start back off the IL

it was really bad!

2:06

I think he's fine against the Pirates, but it's just not a great feeling to have him look so shaky in his first start back. Velo was up, hence why I'm okay taking a shot, but I'd have a very short leash on him in general. If he's bad against the Pirates I'm kinda off him

Eel Ffilc

2:06

Indians O/U 2.5 no-hitters against this season?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I have to say over, they are just.... they're just not a good hitting team at all, and this isn't a new thing

I'm willing to say they probably aren't going to go out and add bats at the trading deadline, b/c that's just not their style

Ben Godar

2:07

What do you think... Pujols to the Cardinals... is it gonna happen?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Maybe some kind of ceremonial thing if nothing else pans out? (also hi Ben)

But if he's really asking for everyday playing time, it's out of the question

If he cools down from that and says he wants to wear a Cardinals uniform again, get a home start, and retire

cool

1

Then I think it's basically 100% they'd do it

cool

1

Jacques Pederson

2:08

The Cardinals, huh? I'm surprised. Are you?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I mean, marginally? 21-14 isn't a world-beating record, they've played a bunch of bad teams so far, and it's early

But still, yeah, they look good! It's fun to watch

Turns out that adding Nolan Arenado to a playoff team is a good baseball move

LFC Mike

2:10

Hi Ben. League batting avg. is .234,OBA .311, OPS .702.There have 4 or 5 no hitters already thrown (depending on who you talk to). There have been 9,085 strikeouts vs. 7,823 hits...it seems almost any random #3 or #4 starter can K 8 or 9 guys in a start. Is this it for the year? or will hitters hopefully get a bit better. Love the game, love fantasy baseball...but it is a bit of a downer

Ben Clemens

2:10

Yeah it's gone too far for my taste

I like pitching a lot, it's really fun to watch good pitchers

2:12

It's a little bit less fun to watch when it's hard to tell who the good pitchers are because everyone is striking out 12

Things will get a bit better as the weather warms up, but I think it's fair to point a finger at the new ball and say "hey this thing might be a problem"

As might the perpetual march of history

Dalton Wilcox

2:12

Why 1000 WAR?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Maybe the best way to say it is that empirical measurements converge on that

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/win-values-explained-part-four/

Here's an old blog post by Dave Cameron about it

Neil

2:13

over the next 4 years who do you think has the better chance at a higher war kyle lewis or austin hays?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I think I'd take Lewis, I think he's more likely to be able to sustain what he's doing in terms of the power and fielding making up for average plate discipline

2:15

They do feel somewhat similar to me, though

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