JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/8/24

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's get started right away

RAGBRAI

2:01

How rare will no hitters become with the shortened starts that starters are doing? Would you say as rare as a solar eclipse?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Definitely not as rare as total solar eclipses

2:03

particularly if you're talking about ones that can be seen by a reasonable number of people

Shota Imanaga

2:03

I've looked good through a couple of starts, looking dominant against the Rockies and solid against the Dodgers with promising CSW numbers and 0 walks to date. However, my GB/FB ratio is extreme, and maybe the cold weather at Wrigley has helped me. Do we think I can miss enough bats/limit free passes enough going forward to negate some of my flyball tendencies?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I mean, this has always been the question, right?

Imanaga has always given up a lot of homers

2:04

I do think that Wrigley helped him, probably by a huge amount, and I don't see how you could think otherwise given his gb/fb splits

2:07

I think that you can think of Imanaga's start, hold the ratio stats that don't involve balls in play, and then ramp up the hr/fb a little

He'd still look really good!

MIKE TROUT

2:07

MIKE TROUT MVP 2024? 179 small-sample wRC+, and he's stealing bases again!

Steve

2:07

Is MVP Mike Trout back? Also, 4 HRs, 4 RBIs, 5 Rs kind of sums up his time with the Angels

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'm not gonna do the whole Dan "it's April" thing, but trust me, I'm thinking "It's April" about a ton of the questions I'm being asked now, at least internally

I'm not ready to believe that Trout is all the way back, but well, I do think he's still quite good

2:08

I'm more with the projections than the season-to-date numbers, maybe a 140-145 wRC+ the rest of the wya?

joe

2:08

Likelyhood of Jackson Holliday coming up this month?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think it's quite high, 75%?

Appa Yip Yip

2:09

Why blue jays no hit baseballs good?

Ben Clemens

2:09

search me

2:10

I've never been a Varsho believer, but Bichette and Kirk and Kiermaier underperforming so much is no fun. It's still very early, obviously, but it's pretty amazing how few outlier performances the other way the Jays have managed

Davis Schneider and that's it

maybe he should be playing more, huh?

Scott K

2:10

You can have Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz on your team for the next 10 years. Who ya got?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I'd take Elly by a fair margin

Steeley Dansby

2:11

Do you think the Dodgers regret trading Busch instead of Lux? Was Lux's value too low to trade anyways?

Zach

2:11

Sadly, our boy Lux looks cooked :(
How much longer do the Dodgers give him? Also, how worried should they be about Outman's slow start, especially with how E. Hernandez and Taylor have started?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Let's take a breath!

2:12

I'm a lot more worried about Lux than Outman, just b/c he hasn't played in quite a while so I worry about skill deterioration

MIKE TROUT

2:12

Manny Machado has lots over 2 wins from his ZIPS season-total projection since the beginning of the season. ZIPS went from +2 to fielding runs to -14. That seems concerning??

RE my machado question, I misread the columns, it's actually changed his positional adjustment down by -14 runs

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, I was gonna say, it's really just that he is playing DH so far

2:13

who knows what we'll do when he starts fielding again but that's what is going on so far

Kwanbelievable

2:13

I have a hard time believing Cleveland is 27th in projected SP WAR for the rest of the year after Bieber's injury. Is the model expecting significant injuries/regression for one or more of McKenzie, Williams, Allen, and Bibee? That seems like a top 10 quartet, even if you're trotting out Cookie and hoping he gets through 4 every 5th day

Ben Clemens

2:13

Well, they were 21st before Bieber got injured

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-ro...

2:14

so let's just say that we did not consider those guys a top 10 quartet

given that even with Bieber we thought the whole unit was below average

our projections are just not that impressed by any of them. McKenzie has the best ERA projection at 3.98

5 Run Homer

2:14

Has MLB considered just turning the injury sliders down in settings?

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