JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/20

Ben Clemens

1:58

Hey everybody, and welcome.

1:59

Another week at home, another chat. We've got some virtual Brewers to discuss, and probably some 'can they play baseball this year?' as well.

Plus, maybe some board games, FanGraphs Live streaming, and even recipes? We'll see!

Tim

1:59

WHEN baseball returns (not IF), do you think high-fiving strangers will be frowned upon? I'm a bit concerned that some of the more "sportsy" aspects of sports will be flushed down the drain due to virus concerns... thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Oh, most definitely. Until there's a vaccine available, I can't imagine touching other people just for funsies will be high on anyone's list of activities.

There's some middle ground between 'the world is back to 2019 public safety levels' and 'stay in your homes.'

2:01

I'll probably *go* to baseball games before there's a vaccine out, but I'll likely wear a mask, improvised or otherwise, and I'm definitely not going to go around touching people.

David

2:01

With reports about mlb wanted to start the season in Arizona with no fans does that give you more hope we’ll have a season? Do you see players wearing masks on the field like they’re doing in ZKorea?

Andrew

2:01

MLB Opening Day Over/Under July 15th?

Jason N

2:01

Should our base expectation be there will be no MLB season this year? The CA governor said he can’t even imagine NFL games being played in the CA this season. MLB doesn’t have the financial incentive to play without crowds or benefit of later year timing the NFL does. So without CA and probably other states, isn’t no season by far the most likely outcome?

Ben Clemens

2:02

A trio of similar questions. I have some hope that there will be a season; i disagree on the financial incentives front, because while I'm not a lawyer, it's not hard for me to imagine RSN's and particularly the big national TV networks getting money back from baseball in the event of no season.

2:03

Playing enough of a season to have playoffs is a good way to get money from your playoff TV carriers.

2:05

I kind of do expect masks on the field, though that I'm less sure of; but the fact that baseball is already talking about alternative seasons in Arizona is a really good sign.

2:07

A moment for a quick edit on my COVID-19 roundup from today; I made a goof around Jon Daniels' salary.

Robert

2:08

With many question marks in the upcoming 2020 MLB draft, are teams more likely to draft the "best athlete" or "tooled up" player than take a chance on questionable college or high school pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:08

This is probably a better question for Eric, but I expect Northeastern players to move way down teams' boards.

2:09

Warm-weather teams, and college powerhouses, have already been doing some playing. I do think that toolbox type guys have a little more value in this draft because there will be less players making a case for a higher slot by being great all year in college/HS, so I'd agree with your overall take.

red

2:09

You a believer in D. Swanson 1st half last year before getting banged up?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I'm somewhere in the middle. I don't think that he's necessarily a high-BABIP guy, and he ran a .325 in the first half, but I believe the lower strikeout totals. I'm a little higher on him than Steamer and ZiPS, but lower than I think Braves fans are.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:11

Last week we discussed no-knead bread, which is an extra-good idea since it uses so little yeast and people are hoarding the stuff (sourdough is also a great option!). Have you made your first loaf?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Topical: my stepbrother is an excellent bread baker, and he sent me some notes on that recipe over the weekend, as he's made variations on it many times. After I buy some yeast, I'll be making it -- our local grocery store was out of yeast last week and I don't keep any lying around.

Scott

2:12

We know that the shorter the season, the greater the chances for less competitive teams. Which team would you look to most benefit from a 2020 half season (if we even get that many games)?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Dan looked into this a few weeks ago:

2:13

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-do-the-playoff-odds-change-in-a-s...

His model has the Rangers and Angels benefiting the most.

2:14

That tracks with the type of team I'd name; teams who are at the back end of the Wild Card race and within shouting distance, but only shouting distance, of the division title.

Like the Marlins are more likely to make the playoffs, but so many of their outcomes are below .500 that even variance probably isn't enough.

The Angels were my initial guess for the team most helped, so I'll just say th em.

Jeremy

2:15

In the absence of real baseball, I've been playing a bunch of OOTP and with the new rules, it seems like lineup construction (at least splitting lefties up) is now more important. Do you think this would have a noticeable effect? Will managers optimize it?

Derek

2:15

How are the virtual Brewers looking?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Let's combine these two, starting with Derek's question.

2:16

The virtual Brewers are doing alright. They're 5-4 now, a game out of first, heading into a two game set with the Reds.

Also all the hitters you'd expect to do well are raking: our top 4 hitters, by wRC+, are Brock Holt (267 in 15 PA), Ben Gamel (212 in 8 PA), Eric Sogard (184 in 27 PA), and Omar Narvaez (168 in 29 PA).

So like, sure? Small samples are small.

2:17

The game loves Narvaez, incidentally. He's a top 5 catcher in this world I think.

And I agree with Jeremy that alternating lineup construction seems to help. I've gotten some good matchups with relievers as a result.

2:18

I don't think it's a meaningless effect, but I'd bet that the EV of it is on the order of a game or two over an entire season.

Now, some virtual Brewers downsides: Josh Lindblom was already out for roughly the whole season; 3+ months.

In the last week, Brett Anderson got dinged up (minimum DL stint likely) and Alex Claudio is out for the year.

2:19

I made a trade for reliever depth before the year, and both guys I acquired, Scott Barlow and Tim Hill, are on the big league roster now.

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