JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/22

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Ben Clemens

2:10

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:11

If I'm slow responding for a bit at the start, sorry! I'm finishing up some PPR's for tomorrow, which is not good practice but unavoidable when pitching rankings move around so much late

Let's talk baseball

171

2:11

Being an Orioles fan really sucks right now.

Ben Clemens

2:11

It's not great!

2:12

I'd like to tell you that the future is bright and that you should focus on that, and honestly, that's true

The prospect crop is quite good

But the O's have sucked for a LONG time, and they're not going to be good this year, and they probably won't be good next year

I'd find it very frustrating to root for them

2:13

Deciding not to try to win any major league games for six years or whatever is just gross

Prospects Not Active

2:13

Who will end up with more AB at SS for Cleveland, Giminez or Ahmed Rosario?

Ben Clemens

2:13

I'll go with Gimenez, though impressive work misspelling both names :)

I think that Amed will get traded during the season

laughing

1

2:14

He makes too much money and is too close to free agency. Unless the Guardians are unexpectedly in a playoff race, I think he'll see the door

the lunch question guy

2:14

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:15

My wife did some meal prepping yesterday, so today's is one of those: baked tofu and veggies with rice and tahini sauce

Pablo

2:15

Hi Ben: should warm weather (and dome teams) all open up with like 10-game home stands to start the season?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I think they should have a disproportionate amount of home games, but I do think that there's something to every team having a home opener in the first week of the season

Maybe one on, one off, three on in terms of series for warm weather teams

Robbie

2:16

Are there numbers on the relative effectiveness of six man rotations, or do the individual components make general opinions on it impossible?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Here's one I wrote last year

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-costs-and-benefits-of-six-man-rotation...

2:17

I'm generally in favor of six man rotations

I think that if you have some transcendent pitchers at the top and not much depth, you should definitley not do it

But otherwise, the rewards are decent

Chip

2:18

Given the light return for Manaea, do you think one or two guys from the 6-10 in the Yankees system gets it done for Montas?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I don't; the A's have gotten their payroll SO low, and Montas has an extra year of control remaining

I think that the A's probably needed to trade Manaea before they paid him a dime this year given what they moved him for

But Montas makes less, their salary is now lower, and he's a better trade chip

2:20

I always thought that they'd start wildly high on Manaea and then just keep going down until they found a bid

I don't think they'll do that with Montas and Murphy

RJD

2:20

how does depth charts project the yankees to produce the highest war but the projected standings have them 4th best record? They are projected to finish below the jays (6+ more WAR than the jays). I get schedule plays a part, but arent the jays playing the same schedule? That feels kinda off

Ben Clemens

2:22

The WAR is what's weird, basically; against a neutral schedule, we're projecting the Jays for a higher winning percentage. I'm gonna look into the WAR and see what's going on there

It's not the schedule, in other words; we think the Jays are a higher win percentage team. I do agree it's weird that they have more projected WAR given that, I don't quite get why so I'll take a look

Iso

2:24

Are you on the Jesus Luzardo hype train?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I am

2:25

Or, well, I don't know what you mean by that, but I think he's a great upside candidate

I don't think he's a lock to turn into an ace or anything but I think he has a ~40% chance at being the best of the pitchers who were on Oakland's staff last year

Which is pretty solid given Bassitt, Montas, and Manaea

Random

2:25

What are your expectations for Aaron Ashby this season? Do you think he sticks in the rotation all season?

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