JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/3/23

Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm going to give the question queue a few minutes to fill up while I make a coffee and then let's get down to business

2:05

Alright, let's get going

2:05

before or after May 1st is when Mets call up Baty?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I'm gonna say before. I don't know what the catalyst will be, but the way they are set up, there are a ton of different Mets whose effective backup is Baty. Left fielder goes down? Slide McNeil out there, Escobar to second, and call up Baty. And the infield rotations are a lot more obvious I think.

2:07

That even ignores the chances that they just call him up because he's hitting too much, which is a real thing too. Overall, I think there's just a very good chance that he'll find some way to merit a major league job

Guest

2:07

With rule changes do you have numerical predictions for increased obps or stolen bases?

Eric

2:07

What stat do you feel is the most important stat with the rules change

Ben Clemens

2:08

I guess these are kind of similar questions? I think that a 50% increase in steals seems like a reasonable expectation, and honestly I don't have much view on OPS changing. I don't think the shift restrictions are going to be easy to measure

As for what is the most important stat: wins, baby

That's still the only way to get to the playoffs

But I don't think my player evaluations have changed much at all, and they won't until I have a better grasp on who will benefit most from these extra steals. Speaking of:

Corbin

2:08

with the league stolen base mark up this much, is a player having 70 or 80 grade speed more valuable (They will be able to steal more bases easily) or less valuable (everyone else will too)

Ben Clemens

2:09

I looked into that for my article that's up today and I would say that the results are inconclusive, as is the intuition

2:10

The average footspeed of base stealers is up slightly this year, but then also there are more people all across the spectrum. Super fast guys have more steals, and slower runners have way more than last year. I think that in terms of concentrated increase in steals, fast guys will benefit the most. But there will be a lot more steals by slow runners this year, distributed across a wide population

Guest

2:11

Thoughts on Ashcraft. Will he survive that tiny park and playing for the Reds?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I'm really high on him, and I don't think playing for the Reds is a disadvantage for pitchers. They've done a really good job of pitching development. Whatever you might think about the ownership group and the general directionless mess the team has been in recent years, that doesn't extend to pitching dev, where they seem to be doing a really good job

2:13

As for the park, that hurts everyone, but I actually like his pitch skills as it relates to the park

He gets a lot of grounders and strikeouts, that's what you want in hitter's parks

LFGM

2:13

How excited should I be over Senga's start? He had a rough 1st inning but cruised for the rest of the game. And Marlins players didn't have good swings against him after that first inning.

Ben Clemens

2:14

I think you should be really excited. He looked really good, particularly when he started locating the ghost fork a bit better as the start went on. One thing that I'm going to keep an eye on is whether people start trying to tee off on fastballs early in the count. His fastball early/splitter late move was really telegraphed by the end of the game and the Marlins just had no answer for it

TroutMichael

2:15

Oneil Cruz ran a 34.9 K% in 361 PA last year. SSS, but he only had 1 K in 13 PA in the first series. Can I feel optimistic about this?

Ben Clemens

2:15

You can, though I'd be more optimistic about the changes he was already starting to make late in the second half of last year

He was already reining his chase rate in quite a lot by September and looked like a much better hitter as a result

2:16

He has a 24% chase rate this year! That's wild

Rob

2:16

Can the Cubs really compete this year with such a soft offense?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Guest

2:16

Odds Dylan Carlson is a Cardinal on August 1?
The fact that he was nearly optioned has me wondering if his future is in St. Louis. He's probably too good of a player to be platooned, but its trending in that direction

Ben Clemens

2:17

They're low! I'm kinda surprised. I still think he's good, one of their best three outfielders for sure, but you have to listen to what the team does, and they're burying him a little bit, like you said, to the point of nearly optioning him

2:18

If someone doesn't get hurt, I don't see how you can keep carrying Burleson/Carlson/Nootbaar/Oneil/Walker, it's just too cluttered

and yeah, Carlson seems like the easiest trade candidate of the bunch

Liz

2:18

What's your favorite or least favorite MLB.TV recurring ad? Do you like Baseball Zen?

Ben Clemens

2:18

I love Baseball Zen, I want to know who came up with it

My favorite ad is one of the Zen ones, of Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek warming up. They don't seem to know there's a camera on them, Maton is in no hurry to do anything, it just relaxes me a ton

Josiah Gray

2:19

How worried should I be about him being a a homer machine? Should be be the designated pitcher for the home run derby this season?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I'd say you should be as worried as you were last year, which is very worried

Adgraphs

2:19

Why does this site publish so few articles?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Only five articles and a chat so far today, we should be embarrassed

Tony Plush

2:20

Royals are hitting the ball consistently hard but running a comical team BABIP (like .160 or something) so ... we'll be better than this, right? Even a little better?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Oh, for sure. It's only been three games!

Rangers Closer

2:20

Will Smith brought in to face 2 lefties (as a lefty). LeClerc closes against righties and Smith against lefties?

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