JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/20

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat.

2:02

Today I wrote about the OOTP Brewers and their continuing bad luck on the injury front:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ootp-brewers-if-it-aint-broke-break-it/

But that is by no means the only thing I'm interested in talking about, or even what I'm most interested in talking about.

Rays Fan in Boston

2:02

Was the Rays offseason covered on Effectively Wild or was it held back once the postponement of the season was announced?

Ben Clemens

2:03

It's my understanding that the EW season previews got paused indefinitely along with the season.

They've been going middle out, potentially inspired by Silicon Valley, which means the Rays should be one of the later teams covered.

So, whenever the season gets re-announced, maybe a few weeks after that?

WilponsAreTheWorst

2:04

What do you think about Yoenis Cespedes' slash line would be going into a contract year 2020? Obv adjusted for less games.

Ben Clemens

2:04

He looked pretty good in the spring! I'd say a slightly lower-OBP version of his career line, so like .265/.315/.490 or something?

2:05

That's like a 110 wRC+ give or take, not too bad.

Gio

2:05

Hey, Ben! Looks like we may see baseball on ESPN through the KBO. As a Mets fan, I'm looking for a team to follow. Any suggestions?

Ben Clemens

2:05

First, I'll tell you that I'm just going to be a Lotte Giants fan. Two of my former coworkers, Sung Min Kim and Josh Herzenberg, work for them now.

2:06

So that's a strong incentive for me to root for them, and then I watched some of their streamed scrimmages as well.

But Jay Jaffe recently wrote a primer for the KBO, based on interviews with those two as well as other team employees:

2:07

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/half-a-world-away-the-korea-baseball-organ...

John

2:07

What were your thoughts that led you to ranking Heston Kjerstad at #7? He makes sense for the Pirates given the need for power and their lack of spending in free agency to acquire any power bats but what are the thoughts that the Pirates draft him over a college arm?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Normally, I'd just say that this is a question for Eric and move on, because I am just not all that up on draft stuff.

2:08

But Heston Kjerstad is a great name. Heston as a first name is pretty cool. So I'll also note that before saying yeah, honestly, I have no clue, but Eric (and also to a lesser extent Meg) are your go-tos for this.

Kim Wexler's T-shirt

2:08

Is it wrong to root for the World Cup-style tournament that Passan mentioned in his article?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Not at all! I'd love to see a tournament-style season this year if we have a short season.

2:09

Like if the season is going to be 50 games or something wildly abbreviated

I'd much rather see a tournament.

I just find tournaments to be a great sports experience.

The magic of baseball is how much space to explore weirdness the regular season gives.

Without that, I'd rather have a tourney.

Sam

2:10

Overall, how have the OOTP Brewers matched up to your preseason expectations of them, both from a standings and performance perspective?

Derek

2:10

OOTP Brewers!

Ben Clemens

2:10

Well, performance wise, I'm not shocked by being .500, but I am shocked by having a -50 run differential 28 games into the season.... losing a game 26-1 will do that though I guess.

OOTP has really impressed me though.

2:11

There's a lot going on, it's really fun actually to micromanage your team, and while it seems to have more extreme performances than real life, it at least mirrors baseball in a close enough way that I feel like I'm getting my fix.

Managing reliever fatigue is way more interesting than I had expected.

2:12

I'm going full early-2010s Rays when it comes to the bullpen shuttle.

Matt

2:12

What does Bryce Harper need to do to make the Hall of Fame?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Was actually talking about this with my wife over the weekend. I think he needs to produce like a down-ballot MVP candidate for 5 or so more years.

Not consecutive years, mind you.

2:13

And I think a single MVP season tips him over the edge assuming he plays until his late 30s

But if he puts up 4 5 WAR seasons as a thumping corner outfielder

2:14

Like, repeats of his 2019 almost, .260/.372/.510, maybe with a little more batting average

Then he's almost certainly in, because that'll get him way over the JAWS thresholds and he'll have a good shot at 500 homers as well.

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