JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/22

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I'm going to give the queue a few minutes to fill up while I get some food for Ruby; I'll get started in a few minutes

2:05

Alright, let's go!

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:05

How did Evan Phillips fall through the cracks into the Dodgers lap? He seems like a guy guy. Same could be said for Bickford!

Ben Clemens

2:06

I was writing about the Rays' bullpen for today, and it feels like the Dodgers are kinda similar

They're really good at working with pitchers to get the most out of them

Phillips and Bickford both look more like guys since coming to the Dodgers, I don't think that's a coincidence

Dk

2:07

Tylor Megill sure looks like he’s for real doesn’t he? Can he be the next Mets ace when Scherzer and deGrom are gone?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I mean, can he? I suppose so

Do I think he's likely to be? still no, but I'm starting to believe more

2:09

I think that his current swing-and-miss rate seems fair

Looks about right given his pitch mix

He didn't need that extra velocity he showed in the first game, and it's a good thing, because it looks like it was somewhat short-lived

Derek

2:09

Can we take a moment to marvel at Ronald Acuna Jr.? I know it's AAA, but coming off a torn ACL and immediately making high-level professional baseball look like child's play as a 24 year old is just wild... Can't wait til he's back up in the bigs! (which, whenever that is, will be none too soon for the Braves...)

Ben Clemens

2:09

I mean.... he's one of the best players in baseball

2:10

I'm not surprised that he's playing like one of the best players in baseball

But I am overjoyed that he's coming back

Wireless Joe Jackson

2:10

The dead ball doesn't seem to be bothering Byron Buxton much. That was quite a walk-off!

Ben Clemens

2:12

Buxton is so good. I thought about different ways I could say this, but honestly, that's all I've got. He's always been one of the most talented players in the game, and the question was whether he could stay healthy. That question hasn't been answered. But yeah, he's one of the best players in the game!

B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks

2:12

Challenge trade idea: Yelich or Belinger, who ya taking?

Ben Clemens

2:14

In fantasy? Gimme Yelich. He's gonna play every day no matter what, he's hitting the crap out of the ball, and his walk rates help a lot in OBP leagues. I'm still worried that Bellinger is going to fall back into his 2021 form, and that's less playable than Yelich

2:15

In real life? Gimme Bellinger, because you can walk away in a year if things aren't working and he's younger. Yelich is signed through 2028, that's a long time

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:15

We are approaching 1968 levels of offensive decline. Balls that should be home runs are dying at the warning track. Batting average is way down. K/HR is way up. I don't really have a question here, just shouting my thoughts into the ether.

Ben Clemens

2:17

Shout out to Mike Petriello for this statistic. In the stadiums that already had humidors installed, offense in those parks is barely down: .003 of OBP, .005 of SLG

In the parks where they put in humidors, OBP is down 35 points, SLG down 107

WHY DID THEY DO THIS

2:18

sorry that's on pulled fly balls and line drives, which I should have specified

Basically, the hits that are most valuable and most punished by a less-lively ball

ben simmons’ jumper

2:19

has Tony La Russa brought a horrible curse upon the white sox?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Yeah, the curse of having an octogenarian manage. I haven't written a 'what is Tony doing?' article yet but I definitely could. Leury Garcia leadoff is not my idea of a party

2:21

It's not like we didn't see this coming, by the way. 'Can Tony La Russa manage in 2021' was a question the minute he was hired

Yo-Yo

2:21

Since May 1 of last year, Yadier Molina is hitting .233/.274/.312, for a 63 wRC+. His framing last year tanked, placing him 61st out of 81 catchers (min 100 innings). Knizner's good start seems to be mostly luck, and his framing was even worse last year, at 77th. Prospect Herrera hasn't been able to solve upper-minors pitching yet. Should the Cardinals acquire a catcher, or will nostalgia win out -- to the detriment of the club? They are in the perfect spot on the win curve, where even a minor upgrade could dramatically improve their odds of winning the Central.

Ben Clemens

2:21

They are not acquiring a catcher, so this is going to be a theoretical answer only

2:26

I think that if they just played Molina way less, things would be better for everyone. He's just not an everyday catcher at this point in his career. On a Cards broadcast recently, one of the announcers mentioned that they spoke to Yadi and that he doesn't like catching on one knee anymore because he's out of shape and 'you don't really steal too many strikes that way anyway, just once in a while'

This is on a day where he was scheduled to get a rest day but demanded to play because it was his last game in Miami.

2:27

If I were the Cardinals, I might just play him anyway for the nostalgia tour. One win in 2022 is probably not worth the long-term vibes you'd lose by cutting him loose

But he's 100% not the best option if they want to win now.

Greg

2:27

Concern level for Bryan Reynolds's early struggles?

Ben Clemens

2:28

6 out of 10. I didn't really buy into his breakout last year; Kevin and I left him off of our top 50 trade value list because we were skeptical of his jack-of-all-trades skillset holding up

2:30

And that's more or less what has happened; everything is just a little worse and the result is scary. I don't think he's this bad, but it definitely shows the perils of buying into a breakout like Reynolds's, where there's no obvious carrying tool but just lots of good stuff

2:32

That's unfair to Reynolds; I think he'll hit for average no matter what, think that's a real skill for him. But I'm not shocked he's struggling

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