JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/9/20

Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I know everyone's mind is probably not completely on baseball right now, but hey, I'll take 50%. I finished making lunch (some pot stickers), so let's talk baseball.

hckim

2:02

what do you think about justus sheffield's improvement? Can he rebound from awful 2019?

Ben Clemens

2:03

Yeah, I'm willing to give him a mulligan for 2019.

2:04

The stats are certainly worrisome, but I'd be more concerned about the velo dip really, because I'm willing to forgive pitchers some bad statistical patches more so than batters.

2:05

So yeah, I'm not going to give up on him yet. If he's still throwing softer and getting bad results after this year, though, I'll re-evaluate.

Zarhan Faida

2:05

rank these pitchers in value over next 3 years please: Clevinger, Woodruff, Fried

Ben Clemens

2:06

I think you have to take Clevinger first. The injury situation isn't awesome, obviously, and he's a guy where you really want him throwing hard, but he's just shown it in a way that the other two haven't.

2:07

After that I actually lean Fried, which I think is a minority opinion. I like his two breaking ball look, and the changeup was bad anyway.

So I think that he can be more like his 2019 than his previous self.

2:09

Woodruff is great too, obviously. But with him coming back from injury, I'm a little scared he'll be down a tick or so and just not have it in quite the same way. And I'm skeptical of his changeup.

Frankie Carbone

2:09

Who finishes with more innings, Darvish or Snell?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Gotta take Darvish here. I don't think he's ultra-durable or anything, but the Rays seem to baby Snell when they can to keep him effective, while the Cubs could really use length out of Darvish given their bullpen.

I'm very high on Darvish this year, incidentally.

I think people forget it because his full-season stats were so-so, but he was incredible in the second half last year.

2:12

And really aside from his first chunk of starts, where he was walking the world.

Picking up Kimbrel's knuckle curve somehow seems to have worked, as well.

Derek

2:12

Bummer about Verlander :(

Ben Clemens

2:12

Yeah, it's low on the list of things I'm sad/worried about these days, but still lame.

Zarhan Faida

2:12

Carlos Correa is being drafted around pick 90. Is that entirely just due to injury history? He's phenomenally talented.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I had an auction last night (getting back into fantasy this year after a year off) and Correa went cheap. That's anecdata, but it surprised me. I think a lot of it has to do with injury history, but Astros in general seem undervalued to me. Maybe people are worried about HBP injuries, but I think they're just discounting too much.

Derek

2:13

Has there been any word from MLB on potential coronavirus-related schedule changes? Italy today canceled all sports for a month...

Ben Clemens

2:15

I have not seen anything yet aside from the guidance that media members and anyone in contact with players should self-quarantine if they have been to affected areas or have symptoms.

There's also a call between teams and the commisioner's office today, so expect to hear more about it soon.

NPB opening day got delayed.

2:16

I have tickets to opening day here in SF, and I'm not 100% clear on whether I'd go. I'm leaning yes, but it's a serious question.

Merrill Kelly

2:16

Do I get in the rotation and log 150 IP with sub 4 era ?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Yes, yes, no.

2:17

Sub-4 is a little aggressive, I think. But I do like Kelly's stuff, and I like his stability. He's basically a better version of Mike Leake I think.

Springer McSpaniel

2:17

Kikuchi has been up a few ticks on his FB and Sheffield has “spring training command” combined with a new sexy sinking fastball. Does this excite you, or file under “talk to me in June about this excitement of yours”?

Ben Clemens

2:17

So, take this with a grain of salt, because I am a baseball optimist.

I tend to think everyone is awesome until I see evidence otherwise.

But I'm really hyped for Kikuchi this year.

2:18

He showed up as better than expected on some of the expected pitch values I did

And I enjoy watching him pitch.

2:19

He touched 96 (!!) in his last start in spring, too. Maybe the gun was hot that day, but to me, the velo was always the biggest question, so I'm ready to believe.

brad penny for your thoughts

2:19

do you think Kwang-Hyun Kim will be contender for ROY?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Another pitcher with limited (or in his case no) MLB background

2:20

ROY eh, maybe and maybe not.

But I have watched him a few times this spring and I totally buy it. The two breaking balls are legit.

2:21

The slow curve is hilarious.

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