JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/28/22

Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

2:02

Seems like everyone other than Michael Conforto has signed now, which means it's time for speculation about team records, fantasy talk, and whatever else people want to talk about. I'm glad to not be talking about free agent landing spots, something I have very little insight into, for a while.

Nate

2:02

Think Sean Murphy’s offensive production will rebound this year closer to the guy he was in 2019/2020? Or is last year more in line of what you’d expect there?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Nah, I think he's much closer to an average hitter than what he showed in those years

2:03

He has power, but not the kind he was showing off in '19, and I don't think he's going to walk 17% of the time like he did in '20

I think there's a little room for improvement -- I don't think he's a true-talent .257 BABIP guy and I bet he'll walk a little more -- but I think our aggregate projection of .228/.314/.428 seems quite fair

2:04

plus power, average on-base skills, works out to slightly better than league average

That's an incredible player with just average defense at catcher -- and he's one of the best defensive catchers in baseball

Nice!

Rachel

2:04

I have a decision to make by midnight. I have to keep two of these three. Cole, deGrom and C Burnes. Would you take the risks of deGrom or go the safe route with the other two? Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:04

Ooooooof

I kind of think you have to keep Cole, I have the least question marks around him

2:05

And I think I'd keep dG over Burnes, just because even 130 innings of him is so valuable and Burnes isn't an innings eater, but that's really hard

2:06

Maybe it depends on who your next options are, but presumably your replacement level pitcher is streaming

For either

chilly

2:06

hip pointer aside, do you expect a yr2 breakout from vaughn or will lack of opportunities hold him back?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I'm not concerned about the hip pointer, but I'm incredibly concerned about the opportunities

2:07

Jason's pretty good at this roster projection stuff, and 497 PA if healthy from Vaughn is a little less than I'd hope for

And that's with 427 from Sheets; if Sheets gets more time, it seems to me that it will eat into Vaughn's kinda one-for-one

2:08

Really like Vaughn, and even in a blah overall season I was very impressed by his power on contact, but it's a tough position, particularly if the division is closer than expected. TLR won't hesitate to bury a young guy forever if he starts slowly

Matt

2:08

Who is your pick for closer in SD?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm not sure how much of a wild card this would be but Pierce Johnson

2:09

He's one of five people in the 'closer battle' and I'm more confident in him than any of the other four

Todd Bonzalez

2:09

Is there a future where the Twins DH Buxton to keep him away from the walls?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Uh... it's a very strange future

2:10

Never say never but so much of his value comes from the fact that he's one of the best defensive players of his generation

I think his bat would have to improve while wall-related injuries continue to pile up

Like, could you DH Carlos Correa to protect his back? Absolutely!

But should you? No

Risk is risk -- you can't just 0 it all out no matter the cost

GBS42

2:11

Pujols is back in St. Louis!! How good or awful will this be?

CoryMC

2:11

How do you feel about Pujols returning to the Cardinals?

jas

2:11

Does Albert Pujols make the Cardinals favorites to win it all?

5 Run Homer

2:11

I'm generally pretty anti-Cardinals, but Pujols, Molina, and Wainwright ending their careers together sounds just about perfect

GBS42

2:11

Will Pujols, Molina, and Wainwright walk off into the sunset together following a playoff appearance of some sort?

Ben Clemens

2:11

Lots of Pujols questions!

As there should be

2:12

I'm not exactly sure what will transpire, but I'm not a huge fan of the move

From a baseball perspective

From a what a fun story perspective, only time will tell how I feel about it; I kind of thought his return to Busch with the Angels and hitting a homer was the perfect capper

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