JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/14/22

Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everyone, welcome to my first chat of the HOT HOT STOVE season

2:00

I might have to call this off early if more deals come through, since we need writers to write words about them and I'm a writer, so let's just get started right away and aim for a high density of questions answered per minute.

Juan Pursuit

2:00

Thoughts on the Nats signing Cruz?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Like it

2:01

It's not gonna make them incredible, but it's going to win them more games, and I think that having Nelson Cruz on your team is a really great idea if you want your young hitters to improve

Do I have a mathematical way to prove that? I absolutely do not

2:02

But their payroll is going down down down, and they don't have a lot of obvious ways to spend it, so I like the idea of getting a player who will be good and fun this year without tying things up long-term if they decide it's not a fit

Also if someone wants a big bat at the trade deadline, they now know who to call

The Nats weren't gonna be good regardless this year, might as well be fun

Appa Yip Yip

2:02

I'm glad you're as befuddled by that trade as everyone else. It's the baseball trade version of a Tumblr post where someone writes "what is she thinking" and it's a picture of their cat. It's so weird! Baseball.

Ben Clemens

2:02

yeah, don't quite get it

Derek

2:02

Really enjoyed your write-up of the bizarre Twins-Yankees trade. I couldn't really figure that one out either so I'm glad people smarter than me are coming to the same (non-) conclusion! Also incredibly disappointed that both Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa gave in so quickly and easily to the Yankees' oppressive anti-facial hair decree...

Ben Clemens

2:03

I guess you can say that IKF is just really under-valued by projectoins?

but also, the Twins are being frugal without an end point in mind?

And the Yankees are going to use two backup catchers as their catcher?

I'm just very confused and I want to see more before I give it a final grade for either team

2:04

Trevor Story to the Twins makes this all SO much more lgoical

baseballenjoyer

2:04

This is less pressing with McCullers now out for an indefinite amount of time, but how do you think the Astros should handle their logjam of rotation quality arms? (Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier and Odorizzi)

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think they should laugh giddily and flaunt it in front of their competitors

Too many arms, what a problem to hvae

For example.... McCullers is now out for an indefinite amount of time!

2:05

Yeah, fine, if they have to use all six, I guess Javier and Garcia are on the fringes but great problem to have. Just go 6-man rotation for a bit if you have to, it'll work itself out

Colton Anderson

2:05

What are the odds of the A's trading one of the Matt's before the end of today?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I have a two-hour commitment around 5 PT today, so I think you should plan on them being traded in that window

2:06

I do think that Olson will be traded first and that it will probably happen soon; seems like there are a lot of teams looking to fix first base and that they have urgency in it so that if they miss on Olson they can pivot to Freeman

Chapman doesn't have nearly as clear of a substitute so the market will likely move more slowly

Appa Yip Yip

2:07

Given the Jays sample size of fixing 2 out of 2 lefties with good stuff and mediocre results last year Kikuchi is a lock to improve yes? That's how math works?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I mean, I think Kikuchi is a near-lock to improve, yes

From his second-half form, at least

Which was quite bad

I can't decide between thinking that the Jays maybe paid too much and just liking the fact that they understand the need to build a good rotation

2:08

I do find it a LITTLE strange that they signed Kikuchi for 3/36 instead of Matz for 4/44 though

Reuben

2:08

Does Fangraphs weight cumulative defensive WAR as the season progresses? Is some of the high variation hidden by weighting toward average? Or is it presented as is, with an understanding that it will stabilize as we approach 162 (or more)?

Ben Clemens

2:08

The second

2:09

I guess which you should do is kind of a philosophical question, but we do the second because it's procedurally easier

Appa Yip Yip

2:09

How much Schwarber in left is too much Schwarber in left? Asking for a team with Vladdy at 1st.

Ben Clemens

2:09

Matt Olson just got traded

2:10