JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/21/23

Ben Clemens

12:04

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I got this set up late, so I'm going to wait a few minutes for some questions to pile up while I get some coffee.

12:08

Alright, let's get started

Chris

12:08

Where is profar going to end up?

Ben Clemens

12:10

I'm really confused by the lack of market for him. I thought Texas was a logical landing place, but it seems like they were aiming a little lower for their left field solution

12:11

I guess the best spot at this point is Atlanta? But it's weird. I don't think that they are looking to add a left fielder before the season starts

I guess my best bet is that he'll wait until the season starts and go somewhere that needs a left fielder

12:12

At this point, that means waiting for injury or ineffectiveness

Jack

12:12

good afternoon, was wondering the reasoning behind nick Gonzales’s 35 FV hit tool. At the time of the draft he was around a 60 FV, and now he is 35? I understand he strikes out a lot, however he did have a 127 WRC+ at AA. 35 seems light to me given his numbers at AA. Thanks!

Ben Clemens

12:13

So, that's a question for Eric and not me, but I'll make some general observations from the outside: he's running a 30% strikeout rate

12:14

His hit tool grades have been going down with each passing year

12:15

He can still do a lot of damage when he connects, but I'm not getting 'oh this guy will definitely bat .280' vibes, to say the least

Jeff

12:16

Does Grayson Rodriguez get enough innings this year to be impactful? Seems like the Orioles treat their SP prospects with extreme caution.

Ben Clemens

12:16

I think he will

They treat their prospects with caution but in 100 IP, I think he'd be plenty impactful

Fact Finder

12:16

what kind of baseball questions do you specialize at if not prospects? Jay has the HOF questions right?

Ben Clemens

12:16

I mean... I don't have much of a specialty

12:17

but there is more to baseball than prospects and the hall of fame

ram

12:17

who is the biggest bust that you thought would be a star?

Ben Clemens

12:18

Brendan Rodgers. The book isn't closed on him yet by any means, but I truly did not think he'd be posting league average batting lines before adjusting for Coors

I thought he was gonna be the next Tulo

Not Marvin Miller

12:18

Where do you think Gary Sanchez might end up? Surprised he's not signed yet?

Baseball fan

12:18

If Gary Sanchez has a monster WBC, how big of a deal could he end up getting? He has to be tempting for a lot of teams

Ben Clemens

12:19

I'm not surprised he hasn't found a place yet, to be honest. I don't think teams want to play him at catcher, which limits his market pretty significantly

If he's not a catcher, he's a marginal righty DH bat. If he can catch, he's a good deal

12:20

If I were a team that had an opening at catcher, I'd give him a shot, just to be clear

He looked acceptable to me (in limited looks) in Minnesota last year

Teams have much better evaluators than we do for this kind of thing, but given the state of catcher, I'd give him a shot

asnbrv

12:20

How does fangraphs treats obvious change to a park? For example, when TEX got a whole new park, when BAL's fence got moved significantly, and when DET's fence moves this season. Do they keep the previous 3 years park factor and wait until the new park plays out? Do they use league average until it plays out?

Ben Clemens

12:21

I'm gonna try to get clarification on this, but as I recall from the Texas change, we use league average for the previous years to create a regression, rather than the old park values

Fact Finder

12:21

true.. I'm assuming Dan has the numbers and Paul is fantasy....not trying to be offensive and apologies in advance if it comes across that way.

Ben Clemens

12:21

Haha not at all

I am specialty-less

Ben Affleck

12:21

Where's my buddy

Walla Walla Ron Washington

12:21