JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/10/2020

Ben Clemens

1:59

Hey everyone, let's go.

Chris

1:59

Who are the rays going to trade from their outfield group? And who are the Padres going to target for their outfield?

Ben Clemens

2:00

I wrote the transaction analysis for this deal, and it's going up later today.

As a rough preview: I don't think the Padres need to acquire anyone, they can just run a sideways platoon of Myers (RF) Cordero (CF) around Trent Grisham

2:01

And the Rays will probably just keep Arozarena in Triple-A longer. They're setting up for future trades of Renfroe and Kiermaier though.

Beetlejuice

2:01

Hi Ben - You (refreshingly) seem to be higher on what the Reds have done than others. Do you see a lot of hidden upside on this team? Do you think the Castillo/Gray steps forward are repeatable? Maybe your undying love for Joey Votto propels you to such optimism? What gives?

Ben Clemens

2:01

A few things. One, I like that they're building a very modular outfield.

They have a lot of good players, and they can have some very good lineups against lefties and righties.

2:02

I also think that they did a good job picking up what I perceive to be undervalued pieces, like Galvis and Akiyama, and I even like their bullpen.

2:03

Not in love with the Bauer trade, just because it was a high price to pay for a third-ish starter, but I see what they were doing. And the Moustakas experiment is fun.

Mainly, though, I just put a lot more value on these deep mix-and-match outfields than most people do, I think.

Chris

2:03

Who says no. Padres trade Wil Meyers, 20 million, quantrill, their comp A pick and a super risky prospect to the mariners for Dee Gordon and his 10 million salary. Both teams pay 30 mil and the Padres give up a former star prospect who can start for the mariners and a really good draft pick

Ben Clemens

2:04

I think the Padres say no now that they have traded Margot. Their outfield picture is confusing if he leaves now, because they'd be short righty bats. Pham/Grisham/Myers seems good against lefties, while Pham/Grisham/Naylor decidedly less so.

Samuel Chadwick

2:05

Would you break down the Rays Manuel Margot trade specifically within the context of the Rays roster? Thank you

Ben Clemens

2:05

And here's that analysis:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/padres-rays-strike-again-with-pagan-margot...

Less Fun Now

2:05

The Red Sox went from playoff contender to 500 team. Do they really want me to be happy they got under the 1st threshold and increased their profit? They are raising their middle finger at me and I can't figure out a way to justify it.

Former Red Sox Fan

2:05

Any advice for picking a new favorite team?

Ben Clemens

2:06

It kind of depends on what you're looking for. I'd be very tempted to just root for the Dodgers this year, because Mookie is realllllllly fun and you've spent the last five years rooting for him.

Realistically you're still going to like the Red Sox, so it's just a matter of what you want your other follow to be.

I've enjoyed watching the Brewers, and I'm looking forward to this year's White Sox and Diamondbacks teams.

2:07

Basically I have a soft spot for young teams with a lot of good players rather than a few stars.

Your mileage may vary but there's nothing wrong with adding to who you like. More baseball is always good

vin scully is a religious figure

2:08

who are some prospective acquirers for Ross Stripling and Joc Pederson? Seems dodgers lost some leverage revealing they're on the market, even more so now that Betts/price deal is through... and they

are productive guys

Brandon J.

2:08

What do you think is going to happen with Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling? Trading them now won't get the Dodgers under the CBT, so should they just hold onto them?

Adam

2:08

If the Dodgers are making moves to increase their chances at winning the 2020 World Series, they shouldn't keep trying to trade Joc/Stripling, right? Just DFA White, trade Beaty or Rios, and go, right?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Putting all of these together because they're related.

2:09

I'm not quite sure why the Dodgers wanted to get rid of Joc? He fits their prospective outfield really well as a platoon partner for Pollock, and given the way they structured Taylor's and Muncy's extensions, his timeline fits them perfectly.

As in, they care less this year because they're over CBT anyway. And then they appear to be aiming to reset next year with those extensions.

2:10

Stripling is also quite valuable.

My guess would be that they do a quick shop, but end up holding onto them, and kinda DFA from the back of the roster.

But I don't feel strongly about it at all - it's a tricky and fluid situation.

Jason

2:10

Would the Dodgers really make Pollock the small half of a platoon after giving him a big contract last offseason?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I think so. They don't appear to be afraid to kill their darlings, witness the way they kinda whipped Grandal around at times.

And Pollock is just not better against right-handed pitching than Joc is.

Guest

2:13

Wouldn't a Pederson and Stripling to Pittsburgh trade be a perfect fit for the Pirates?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Uh.... I mean, it would make them better! But Joc is leaving after this year and Cherington is trying to acquire 19-year-olds and such.

Jason

2:13

(I just looked it up and realized the contract was a lot smaller than I remembered; I thought he got 5/$80 million, not $55 million)

Ben Clemens

2:14

Ah yeah. Basically I just don't mind it, and hope they wouldn't either. Can't get too invested in sunk costs when you have their payrolls.

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